nzucker

I like the looks of a weak Niña, warm NP, and low solar activity. How is ozone and strat temps?

I mean overall your forecast was a hit, but the idea of heat returning in the 2nd half of August never really came to pass. July was an extremely hot month, nearly up there with '55 and '66. Also, you went a little heavy on 90-degree days; part may be attributable to the vegetation in Central Park.

We didn't really have "increasing heat and humidity" in August. I think the month finished +0.3F with 3 days that hit exactly 90F. That's not exactly a warm August.

I still think it will be difficult. The ice is much higher concentration this year in the CAB/CAA, and 2012 had so much rotted ice on the Siberian side. This year, it's more just a straight line between ice/no ice.

Also looks like significant improvement north of the CAA and Greenland.

Boxing Day, you mean? Lol.

2010-11 got the good pattern back too late...we had a very cold end of March with snowfalls on 3/21 and 3/24 in Westchester, but it was too late to get more than a few more inches. I remember there were still patches of snow on 4/1 in Dobbs Ferry, and there was some snow/sleet that mixed into a rainstorm in mid-April. That winter did not want to go. Had 3 huge storms from 12/26-1/26...there was 25-30" on the ground after that and then again after the 2/2 ice storm. I think I measured 26" in my front lawn. It was a glacier too; I still remember the moon reflecting off the snowpack as I went to visit a friend.

Thank god your health is improving. Your recovery rate seems to be impressive.

Yes but the changes in solar output are much smaller in effect on radiative forcing than the cumulative influence of rapidly rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations.

It's weakened somewhat but not NEARLY as much as the 7/27 map showed; that was almost certainly due to satellite error. That image had <75% concentration over a very large area. Seeing the new map, I doubt it melts completely in the East Siberian arm.

I may have been right...looks dramatically different today, more similar to before. These satellite maps are prone to short-term error due to clouds and other variables. Ice is much higher concentration now:

Greenland still seeing near record high surface mass balance for July, however. Very benign melt season there, so far.

Are we sure that isn't satellite error? It seems like an awfully big change from just a week or so ago, not sure if that's possible.

Looks above most recent years on Bremen extent:

Can you post the area numbers again, Will? Are we still close to 2009/2013/2014?

Doesn't the weather forecast look increasingly hostile though with a strong ridge over the Siberian side? Even if it's not a dipole, won't that degree of warmth (like +9C 850) promote melting?

It still looks like just a moderate melt pattern unless the PV over Baffin Island loses all influence. It's rare to get such a widespread high pressure extending from the Beaufort to Greenland, as we had in 2012. The usual response to ridging over Alaska is lower heights and associated PV in the Baffin region. The PV has been very stubborn in recent summers. With early indications that it is re-establishing in an environment of lower overall hemispheric heights, I remain skeptical of a 2012/2007 melt unless we see major changes.

It's hard to get a strong high pressure over Greenland with the near constant vortex near Hudson Bay. Some of the long range GFS runs have shown a ridge poking into Greenland from the east, however. Do you think the PV may finally drop further south and be forced out of the Baffin/Hudson Bay region?

Will, the maps I'm seeing are showing relatively low heights over the Arctic and overall much cooler temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere compared to recent extreme warmth...this has a weak dipole signature but still looks chilly over the North Pole and parts of the Canadian Archipelago/Greenland...the rest of the Arctic would probably be near average in this pattern:

How does melt ponding look at this point in May?

And the contrails...don't forget the contrails.

I think they should both go. Guys, this thread is about Arctic Sea Ice, not about the current cold snap in the Northeast U.S., or the Russian plot to displace cold from Siberia and move it to North America, or anything else. Keep it on track about the health and state of the cryosphere. Is that so difficult?

Actually plenty of areas of the Dakotas average less snow than parts of the NYC metro. Exceptions being the higher elevations in the western parts of the state like the Badlands, the Black Hills, Theodore Roosevelt Natl Park.

Nope, there wasn't much snowcover. The Feb 11-12 storm disappeared in a few days, and January and March both torched. There was a small period in mid-December with snow on the ground but nothing noteworthy.

Yes, this could be another good fall for Eurasian snow cover with a large ridge over the Kara/Barents area as well as a ridge over most of North America. This pushes all the cold into Russia/Mongolia/China as the PV sets up there early on.