nzucker

No one is saying this winter's low snowfall is caused by climate change. We've discussed many factors on here: the lack of ENSO-atmospheric coupling, the descending +QBO, high AAM and the location of AAM deposits. Part of it is also just luck, as you can see by the much higher totals in Cape May County, DC, and BWI, areas that average significantly less snow than NYC. There is a difference in pointing out trends occurring in the next few decades versus blaming this winter's low snowfall on climate change. No one has done that.

Well it's obviously happened before that a big storm has been followed by warmth, but it's more freakish now than before. Climate models show declining snow cover in the 21st Century as the snow line recedes north.

Well that's another feature of the changing climate that will be growing more severe in coming decades. Bigger storms but less snowpack. The record Feb 2006 and Jan 2016 storms were both gone in under a week...

What about 01-02? Or you're only counting meteorological winter? I remember a lot of really crappy winters: 97-98, 98-99, 01-02...middle school winters were brutally warm and snowless. 99-00 wasn't too much better except for the one stretch in late January where we had a 6" storm and some arctic air. The position of the Hawaiian ridge stretching south of AK with a vortex to the north this year is very similar to 98-99 and 99-00, some of our worst Nina winters. A flat Aleutian ridge or ridge north of Hawaii tends to be a very unfavorable Pacific signal, and that's ruled the roost this winter.

Wow raining all the way up in Sloatsburg, that tells you how bad the storm ended up being.

When thicknesses are colder in Phoenix than NYC, there's your issue. A low over northern Missouri isn't usually favorable here. We've seen so many of these tracks west of us this season.

As this comes north, will we see a transition to snow in the Bronx/Westchester?

Well, I don't think we'll be alive when it's completely too warm for snow. The more aggressive climate models as reported by the New York Times showed NYC's climate to be akin to the current climate of the Arkansas/Missouri border by 2080-2100. The less aggressive and lower emissions models showed NYC's climate in the 2080-2100 period being akin to the current climate of DC. Both of those areas still receive SOME snow. And the climate warming may lead to more disruptions of the polar vortex and a more negative AO, which will limit the warming here at the expense of a rapidly warming Arctic. But yes, we rate to see significant changes in our lives. We have already seen some: the higher summertime dewpoints, increased variability in winter snowfall, growing frequency of blockbuster storms. It will be sad, especially for us winter lovers, but it's the world we've created.

It's not really doing anything here in the Bronx. Had a brief period of sleet. I thought we were looking at a 1-3/2-4 event around NYC's northern areas. Winter of 2018-19 continues its suckage.

Everything has gone west of us with the -PNA pattern. Some years the coastals lock in like 09-10 where we had Nor'easters on 12/19, 1/30 (south), 2/5 (south), 2/10, 2/26...plus the March rainstorm.

Mostly sleet in the Bronx.

Boxing Day, you mean? Lol.

March 2015 broke the record with a 20" snowpack in NYC. In the suburbs, there was snow on the ground until almost 3/20.

That's a real nice look with a -EPO and an east-based NAO. Will keep temps cold for sure with the PV near Hudson Bay.

Which of the March storms did they have the most in? The 3/21 event? 31.9" is such an impressive total for that location in March, more than a full season's worth of snow in a month that borders on spring. I had 6.0" in the 4/2 storm. That was a really nice event here. We just missed the following weekend on 4/9; airmass was still cold enough for snow yet storm threat faded. It doesn't look like we're anywhere near done this winter with the Sunday night 1-2" event then the bigger storm Wednesday afternoon. We're due for a little luck.

How did ISP get so much last year? I had 48" in the Bronx. Did they get a lot more in the January 950mb megastorm?

This was my backyard yesterday morning...still some left. So saying the storm was nothing is ridiculous.

Yes, I've also had 2.3" here in the Bronx during the entire meteorological winter. The biggest event, aside from November, was the 1 3/4" snowfall that I recorded on Tuesday that was combined with sleet and ice. Incredible to think in some winters we see this amount of snow in an hour; others it takes a whole season to accumulate a few measly inches. If we have a benign ending to the winter, this will be the least snowiest winter I've experienced since 01-02 when Dobbs Ferry only received 8" all winter. (I was in New Hampshire for the 11-12 winter, where we were well below average but still had over 50" with 25" coming in the October storm.) I've been incredibly lucky...had almost 50" in the Bronx last year, 58" in Southern Brooklyn in 13-14, nearly 70" in Dobbs Ferry in 09-10 and 10-11. But averages are averages for a reason, and we were due for a ratter. We're also seeing a continuation of the extremes where NYC sees fewer winters with 20-30", as was common in the 1980s, and more winters with 40"+ or <15".

Tom, Great thoughts. I also think a major factor in the lack of significant winter weather (aside from the polar vortex and 2F low in NYC) is the location of the +ENSO event. Many were expecting a west-based El Niño/Modoki look like 09-10 or 57-58 (just weaker). That didn't come to pass as the Niño was basin-wide. I think that had a major impact on the lack of Nor'easters and unfavorable MJO pattern as it's largely SSTAs that determine tropical convection cycles, along with AAM as you mentioned. As the warmth in Region 1.2 has evaporated and cooler SSTs have emerged to the south, we now have a more Modoki look. I wonder if that's the reason for the more favorable pattern showing up on the models.

2010-11 got the good pattern back too late...we had a very cold end of March with snowfalls on 3/21 and 3/24 in Westchester, but it was too late to get more than a few more inches. I remember there were still patches of snow on 4/1 in Dobbs Ferry, and there was some snow/sleet that mixed into a rainstorm in mid-April. That winter did not want to go. Had 3 huge storms from 12/26-1/26...there was 25-30" on the ground after that and then again after the 2/2 ice storm. I think I measured 26" in my front lawn. It was a glacier too; I still remember the moon reflecting off the snowpack as I went to visit a friend.

Only like a half inch at most here, not even fully covering the ground, kind of disappointed. Could easily bust on the 2-4" that was predicted, although the sleet line will slow some as it encounters the colder air to the northeast. It's only 26/20 at LGA and colder here in the residential areas north of Pelham Pkwy so I'm a little worried about ice.

Ripping pretty hard in the Bronx.

Thank god your health is improving. Your recovery rate seems to be impressive.

Is Lake Champlain frozen yet?

Well they were: 13-14 and 14-15 were driven by a highly favorable PAC