nzucker

Considering you're on 5.5" for the season, that may point to the fact that it's not happening as planned. We may get a snowy period late January and early February, but that's probably not going to make up for the futility of the rest of the season. And late Feb/March snow aren't the same since they melt so quickly.

10-11 was my favorite winter in Westchester....had 70" and it piled up fast since it was from late December to early February. The SWFE on 2/3 put a sheen of ice on a 30" snowpack, very memorable. That storm hit Chicago extremely hard if I remember correctly. Last year the best storms here were the Equinox one which dropped about 8" and then the one in early April that dropped another 6". The other 3 March Nor'easters were mostly nuisance events here in the Bronx.

It's just that our opportunity for snowpack is declining rapidly. All of the winters where we amassed a good snowpack had pretty much started by now...10-11 had Boxing Day, 13-14 had the 1/24 storm and 2/1, 14-15 had the 1/21 and 1/26. If we don't see a large-scale pattern change soon, we'll lose the best part of climo and have a scenario like last year.

Wow, big hit for my old stomping grounds in Middlebury. 17" is a high-end SWFE.

-50C 850s? Where? Never seen that before....usually the coldest the PV gets is like -40C.

We had 8" here on March 21st last year and 6" on April 2nd. Not sure what you mean.

That's incredible, great work.

Yes but the changes in solar output are much smaller in effect on radiative forcing than the cumulative influence of rapidly rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations.

Highs are mostly in the low to mid 40s this week. That's actually below average for the time of year: climo is 45-50F in late Nov/early Dec. People forget because of the early snowfall, but the heart of our winter is Dec 15-Jan 15.

People forget that average highs on Dec 1st are around 47F in Central Park. Climatology favors the second half of the month for significant snowfall. In 2010 we had a very cold December but waited until 12/26 for our first significant storm when Central Park got 20" on Boxing Day. First week of Dec looks Niña-like in the means with a prevailing -PNA and western trough...may be due to AAM loss. Then we wait..

Full list of spotter reports, anyone?

Temperatures were pretty marginal for freezing rain in the City and right near the Coast. You don't get much accretion in urban areas with 30-32F ZR.

Guys, NYC had never had a 6" snowfall this early since records began in 1869. How easy is it to forecast an event that hasn't occurred in 150 years of observation? Granted, the NWS probably did hug the GFS thermal profiles too much, as opposed to favoring the colder NAM/ECM guidance. And we certainly know the GFS tends to be too warm in CAD situations with +PP to the North. Low dewpoints and a more northerly flow than expected were also factors. But I don't think anyone should be blamed too much for this one. Early season storms are notoriously hard to prepare for, as we saw with 11/8/12 and 10/29/11: the combination of leaves on trees and roads, the public forgetting how to drive in winter conditions, and a reluctance to forecast aggressively near the coast all play a role. The amount of trees down is almost certainly due to the foliage, and that was a major factor in snarling roads. Timing was also the worst possible with a normal morning that encouraged people to come to work and then a brutal evening rush in heavy snow. Let's stop the blame game: Mother Nature simply showed us that she's still boss, even in our highly connected, digitized age.

I think that's liquid equivalent...it's probably around 5" of snow or so.

Measurement is in a slight drift on garbage can, so I'd say we have about 5.5" here in the Pelham Parkway area of the Bronx. Very windy at times with near whiteout conditions, treacherous indeed--saw a large SUV totalled on my street from skidding out.

Heavy snow in Bronx.

We have a house in Lake Como, PA in northern Wayne County. Were you near there?

Great outlook, Isotherm...in line with much of what I've read here. What do you think of 04-05 as an analog, as well? Or 68-69/69-70?

So green for this date.

Strongly agree...HPN at 400' well north of the City on mostly flat ground.

Incredibly warm for 1am on Sept 18, 75F in the Bronx.

Half of the Earth's animals have been lost in the last 50 years. Is that what we consider a healthy planet?

Great thoughts, Skier. Only about 1/5 of our planet is left in wild state, and even that term is debatable given the influence of human-induced climate change on all ecosystems. As the recent USA Today article on Yellowstone National Park illustrated, even the so-called wildernesses are experiencing widespread consequences: a month less of snow cover, 50 days less of temperatures below 0C at the entrance to the Park. Invasive species may cease to be invasive given the rapid changes in climate that are causing migration of many species to the north and higher in elevation: one study in the Andes found certain species moving up to 100m up in elevation every year. The recent Guardian article discusses the changes that have occurred in the so-called Anthropocene 6th Extinction. Humans have caused the loss of 83% of wild mammals, and 60% of all mammals are livestock. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/may/21/human-race-just-001-of-all-life-but-has-destroyed-over-80-of-wild-mammals-study

I also like 2006-07 and 1986-1987.

UAH June: +0.21C July: +0.32C Notable warming in the Southern Hemisphere and Tropics, perhaps a result of the emerging El Nino conditions.