Jackstraw

If I end up beating a meteorologist that lets just say mentioned bird farts being added to atmospheric models, do I get to be a Pro-forecaster for a day?

Well the mule analogy definitely applies and respectively. 2020 is just around the proverbial corner

Once again, timing, timing, timing for us in central IN. Par for the course, maybe we can pull a Tiger

When it got warned at 4:52 there looked to be a debris ball on CC but I was using COD's radar at the time which isn't that good. That was the one cell that rode the warm front, took a hard right at one point. I think on the onset LL winds weren't quite backed enough, the surface low came in a little to quickly along with the warm front out running most of the thermodynamics, at least in central OH south. I would venture to say a bullet was dodged because if the timing of all of the ingredients would've been just a slight bit better i.e. a couple of hours slower with the surface low, things could have really got going.

Lets hope that one gets occluded. It's heading straight for CLE

Make that 3..... Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Cleveland OH 452 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019 OHC077-139-142130- /O.CON.KCLE.TO.W.0004.000000T0000Z-190414T2130Z/ Huron OH-Richland OH- 452 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM EDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN HURON AND NORTHERN RICHLAND COUNTIES... At 452 PM EDT, a confirmed tornado was located near Shelby, or 12 miles north of Mansfield, moving northeast at 55 mph. HAZARD...Damaging tornado and half dollar size hail. SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. Locations impacted include... Shelby, New London, Plymouth, Greenwich and Shenandoah. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 4085 8266 4099 8272 4108 8266 4107 8243 4099 8244 4099 8242 4089 8241 TIME...MOT...LOC 2052Z 227DEG 46KT 4093 8258 TORNADO...OBSERVED HAIL...1.25IN $$ Griffin

Pretty crazy, 6 TOR watches and only 2 TOR reports so far.

Storm up around Marion warned now. That thing has shown a decent hail core at times and is riding the warm front

You can see them across OH on Hi Res Reflectivity

That severe cell (s) crossing the IN/OH line is about to hit an instability wall per meso, especially the southern flank.

Honestly those were some of the heaviest snows I'd seen all winter and we had some decent 1-2 inch an hour rates this winter for once. Was quite a surprise and folks up there may get surprised also lol.

This crap has got to stop. We can't string together more than 36-48 hours of decent dry weather. It was impossible to get the yard raked last fall and now it's impossible to get the yard raked let alone mowed so far this spring. I desperately need a good 4 day stretch of mild dry weather to get anything done. A day and a half of decent weather followed by 2-3 days of rain, wind and cold then if lucky 2 days of dry weather then repeat. I have like a 24 hour window once or twice a week to do anything outside and it's been like this since October (cold in winter excluded of course). I don't think I've seen such miserable timing with these weather systems in my 7 years back in Indiana. Edit: And btw it seems like every weekend a weather system moves through for the last 6 months. Can't even get a decent Sat. and Sun. Started noticing this in Dec. We had some kind of precip probably more than 70% of the time over the weekend for the last 6 months. 7 day forecast below is getting really old..... Tonight Showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 5am. Low around 40. Northwest wind 5 to 15 mph becoming northeast after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible. Sunday Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. High near 46. East northeast wind 7 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible. Sunday Night Showers likely, mainly before midnight. Cloudy, with a low around 34. Northwest wind around 14 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. Monday Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, with a high near 53. West northwest wind around 11 mph. Monday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 43. South wind 6 to 9 mph. Tuesday Partly sunny, with a high near 70. Tuesday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 55. Wednesday A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 70. Wednesday Night A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 57. Thursday A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 8am. Cloudy, with a high near 69. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Thursday Night Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 50. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Friday A 30 percent chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 58. Friday Night A 30 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 42. Saturday A 30 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 55.

The snow we got back on the 30th last month stuck much quicker than expected with above freezing LL temps. Roads were covered in 30 minutes at 34 degrees. It also was plastered to everything due to the winds as was mentioned in the ORD discussion. This one looks similar to what we had a couple weeks ago, albeit a little better modeled. But those who get into the heavier bands enjoy, hopefully a bookender

I'm 5 behind you. Maybe we'll have a Quantum forecast computer in a couple years so we can plan ahead lol.

I would expect an uptick in Jan. 2020 birthdays if some of those amounts and winds pan out lol.

Timing sucks for those of us more or less east of 65. Do think we could see a decent QCLS line late along the cold front might at least be a decent light show

I'm skeptical on a lot with this system but hey it's something to break this lackluster beginning to Spring so far lol.

Don't see a colorful map like this often in April. Have to admit been a nice couple days out around here.

Yeah Hodo's looking a little better over my way on the NAM's. It's still wait and see but I'm itching so bad to chase might go ahead and take a half day off lol.

15% on the 4-8 day SPC outlook for IL/IN/KY. Theta-E coming up some on the models along with a little increase in moisture.

That was nuts. I literally measured 4 inches at one point, there's still some spots with 3 compacted/melted. That was probably the second heaviest snow rate of the season here. It took about an hour of heavy rates for it to really start sticking and when it did it was like a battle. Melt at the bottom accumulate at the top who's gonna win lol. Don't think anyone saw that coming around here. I thought the NAM was smoking some kind yesterday. Was quite a surprise. Now it's a mess go away please, time for the buds to blossom

I can confirm thundersnow, 1/4-1/2 mile visibility for the last hour and at least 2 inches of concrete and its still pounding. Roads are going downhill fast. Always been a saying around here we get surprise snows during tournament time lol. crazy stuff

Me too. Fantasy land is looking better for severe next weekend

Let me be the first to say it sucks so far lol.

Well hopefully we will have a Spring soon not this 45/25 crap then slam into the 80's. In my 7 years back in Indiana that's the one thing I've noticed, Spring and Fall have been more and more non existent. Almost more of a southern climo lately.