Jackstraw

KIND had a local convective discussion up for a bit on their page. They mentioned dynamic piping tornado initiation. Haven't heard that squirm in a hot minute lol. Makes me wonder if there's an intern there helping them do write ups

70/60 Tor Watch just issued for Central Indiana.

Just drove home from a Dr visit and despite all the pessimism I'm seeing a carbon copy of yesterday only stronger. The cloud deck was lowering quickly on my way home and the LLJ was just starting to pick up. Dews are slowly rising. I mean yesterday we had evaporative "steam" like you would have after a quick downpour on a 90 degree day as the sun comes back out. No sun and it was 63 degrees. Same thing right now. No sun and "steam" rising off the road and crops and its 66. Temp on my way home across 30 miles moving North went from 71 to 64 when I got home so the WF is coming N, just not as much as many would like. The stratoform clouds with the rain from the earlier wind bag were starting to break and streak, something I've seen many times before as a windbag gets mixed out. Could it still bust? Sure. But there's a train of Hook and Ladder cells from near LAF back to Kansas City racing East. Any of those gets rooted they're gonna spin up, just like yesterday but theres a lot more shear and energy through the column today and tonight. Still ain't callin it, at least through Central IN yet. There's way too much kinetic volatility out there IMHO.

Well, this thing is far from over for those of us down in my area and west. There were always 2 shortwaves forecasted with this for the last 72 hours and a lot of questions if the WF would make it up to the IN/MI border after this initial shortwave. Spacing will be everything. The surface reflection is just now getting wound up. TBH, this MCS is coming through a couple hours sooner than I was expecting.. There's still a good chance of recovery as the second SW comes through and the surface low rapidly deepens. I think at least S of I80 to the I70 corridor from MO up through Central IN and Western OH are still going to be under the gun for broken lines of long tracked sups from around 3pm on. Especially if that LLJ cranks up like it did yesterday. You don't need huge Capes and/or dews in the mid to upper 70's with a setup like this. We know this from our experiences with early and late season powerful kinematic setups like this. 60 to 180 veering winds through the column can more than make up for large Capes IMO. I'm not shutting the door at all yet.

If it was bit stronger and a bit larger, yeah it could shunt the surface moisture flow into the OH Valley. But I think its too little too late. It's already embedded into the established SW flow of the incoming trough over the conus and will like be absorbed into it. Not a non 0 effect but not as much as if it were stronger IMO. Crazy jet dynamics with the incoming trough, gonna be hard to overcome those.

Yep. They're really bullish on keeping the main event long tracked lines of sups with little consolidation. That surface low looks to do a good job of clearing out the brewing line in Iowa after it moves through later. 60+KT LLJ on some of the models is nothing to scoff at. Good long track sup setup its looking like between I70 an I80.

I don't know whats gonna happen tomorrow but almost everything thats come through behind that quick line of precip around 2pm has been full on hook and ladder. I don't think I've seen so many wall clouds at once. I mean every updraft was spinning out of the gate. I watched 5 wall clouds and one funnel without moving lol. Crazy stuff.

There's shotgun soundings everywhere in IL/IN between I70 and I80 on some of the CAM's. Might be too good lol

Mid 980's is getting into Cat 2 Hurricane territory lol. This seems to be a classic Great Lakes/Ohio Valley kinematic setup that we would normally see in some of the Feb/early March or Nov. outbreaks we've had in the past as currently modeled. See how the models respond tomorrow before I get too excited. That upper level jet timing and strength as modeled right now certainly has me intrigued anyway.

Thats called a Magic Funnel. It was always there until the smokestack made it "appear". Amaze your friends, only 19.99. But wait there's more.... lmao Pretty cool though

Yeah, 49 when the dog took me for an unexpected walk around 6am. I already packed away my sweatshirts. Grabbed a Carhardt out of the closet and ended up sweating lol. Top tier next 7 days except for the frequent rain chances. Rubber band weather.

We usually get hit with these setups after sundown as they wane and have turned into basically windbags. Hard to get good sups this far east after April/early May. This may be the last chance before full on ridge riding shrimp season comes in around the 4th. There was a funnel cloud reported that I could've seen from my back porch with the last one (briefly touched down as an EF0 off to my east). Still a lot of if's. I'll have my bicycle ready lol

3 day 30% hatched right along the I70 corridor...

That's right on top of @IWXwx

Stacked bow's from SWMI down through Central IN. Kinks in all of them.

I'm warned for some QLCS notches in that fat belly pushing E. Helluva a light show and muggy as shit. Walking outside, chase is on lol

There was a CC drop right over Calumet City a few min ago on that tor warned storm

100mph+ inflow from both KLOT and IWX radars. That's a yikers

Lets hope the sun setting calms these things down. Anything popping out ahead of that shrimp belly is rotating like instantly. Primo conditions currently in NW IN S MI

Looked like a direct hit on Reading

I may head out and travel 20 or 30 miles N to see if I can't catch a tail end Charlie pop up as this potent 700mb shortwave works its way NE out ahead of the main line. That thing strengthened out of nowhere.

This is the banter thread so here's some banter There are some things in life that are difficult to do yet one must do them. Things that, no matter how painful, no matter how difficult of a decision, yet one must gather up the strength of ones heart and mind and do them. This is my torture, my pain, and my confession that yes, I must root for the Knicks in this series. After decades and decades of absolute hatred of them and especially their fans I must, I cant help it. I would root for the Bull's before the Knicks even though they probably killed us more with MJ than the Knicks ever have...but, it's those damn Knicks fans. Spike Lee snapping his towel at Reggie, McEnroe "accidently" spilling his drink onto the court during a crucial fast break, Spikes (joking) KKK comment when the Knicks came to Indy in one of the playoff meetings (I laughed right along with him lol), Ben Stiller getting all manly in your face to whatever Pacer was 15 feet from him (how can that guy even think he's intimidating lol?). I was at one Pacer/Knicks playoff game in Indy and KNICKS FAN was sitting next to me. He laughingly told me we weren't bad for an "ABA" team. I told him they weren't bad for a team that could've had Dr. J for FREE (had to educate that young man lol). Yet I must root for them and as much as I hate to say it, it is because of their fans. They deserve it. As long as it's been, I get it more than most. I know what it's like to have that golden ring of a championship within your reach, only for fate (or the Pacers in their case ) to take it. So I'm here to confess I've been rooting for the Knicks (damn that hurts every time I say it) to take the Western Team (their balls don't count) in 7. Oh and Wu Tang will be the half time show tonight so there's that (The Pacers will be back with a huge chip next year, look out!) Confession off

Well it's just me the dog, couple of goats (natures brush control) and a Donkey out here. I've also got over 30 of 8 species of native deciduous tree's from around 25 years old and up. Half are over 100. I have an Oak and a Rock Maple that are over 200 years old. 15 Conifers spread round a few over 100 ft tall. I have a friend that worked for the forest service as an arborist and land reclamation and he gave me a bag of native flower and plant seeds. I spread them like they do, just toss the stuff around lol and let them go lol. I did use an old plow and dug up a lot of the brush 15 years ago to give the natives a start against invasive species. I still take out invaders when I see them, I'm probably 75% native in the brush, wild grass and wooded areas. Ain't no manicuring here. I worked on golf courses mowing when I was in college. I phreaking hate grass and lawns

I've got nearly 3 acres. I mow a 10th of it. The rest is a small garden, well, I just plant stuff around randomly around the house, no tilling, no rhyme or reason where, it's my "shrubbery", native wild plants wildflowers grasses and brush, trees and mud lol

I will take this Omega block for as long as it, well, can block lol. I'm not going to complain about roughly 75/55 days ever. Absolutely perfect weather. Maybe snoozefest but man will this be a nice 10 day stretch if it holds. One of the best Spring stretches in many years.