Jackstraw

Same here, 2in stat padder. Hope she made it safe.

Here come da mud

1/31/26 OH Valley deep freeze snowpack. We're still 10in deep of frigidity here lol. Coldest stretch since that snowless hell year 10 or so years ago. Once again, snow makes it justified. Pretty much entire forum covered so for all the the me me me mby complaining that is a plus thats gonna move this year to an B/B+ so far for me even though we're still shy of average snow wise. I'll take it following 5 D/F years in a row. Need some extra credit as we move through the next 6 weeks with a nice March "icing" to cover the mid to late Feb mud fest thats coming

Ended up with 10 down here so that is an official "Big Dog" for us. I can't stress enough how fortunate we were that there was little wind with this. With just the light wind we had there were 3 foot drifts pretty common in the town while some of the more notorious drifting spots in the country with 5 - 6 footers easy. First time since 2017/2018 I put the truck in reverse and we had much higher sustained winds with that one for 3 days. Spent 10 hours out in the storm, drove 125 miles. It still amazes me how much banding affects totals. There were places, especially to my N/NW and to my W/NE that had 8-10 then a 5 mile "desert" of only 5 then back to 8 to 10. Really congrats to our brethren to the south and our OH peeps. For all the complaining on this board this has been one of the best winters sub wise in at least 7-8 years. Especially with now 2 storms that over 1/2 to 3/4's of the sub received warning criteria totals out of one storm. I promised that I wouldn't complain until Dec if we ended up with double digits sooooo....

Absolutely! It was stunning late last night early morning when I was driving around before sunrise. Some of the "sparkeliest" and most colorful snow I've seen outside the Mnts. It was like thousands of tiny prisms refracting mini rainbows from the headlights across the ground.

Last piece of upper energy swinging through down here. Just enough forcing to provoke a few more bands. Hopefully squeeze out another inch or 2 down here.

Been out since 6. Country out here is treacherous. 2 to 3 footers. Man any wind and this stuffs gonna pile up. 7 to 10 around the yard so I'll call it 8. Models still want to drop another 2-4 but not sure. We started getting a lot of columns in the bands early this morning. We shall see. Fun storm regardless. Justifies the freezer incoming.

Using Penny Wharville-Mcgill's famous word from Oh brother where Art Thou, snow makes this brutal cold Bona Fide

100% pure mountain sparkles lol

Almost 2in here. Winds light with some gusts buts enough to blow this stuff. Dime-Nickel flake size. Some 1 footers out there already. Country roads have drift ripples building. Hope this front end lasts.

It has begun, and with wind. This stuff will blow big 4-6 footers out here if we can get 20mph winds. Drift busting ensuing early morning baby!

That's what I have my eye on. We've got a -7 dew being reported in Muncie right now but areas where snow is being reported have dews over +3.

I can here the clang of swords overhead as the demon dry air and the light of flakes clash!

I've learned to mow it like a golf green on the last mow of the year. Makes a duster a big dog lol

It could be as late as midnight to kick off in a lot of places. But once the dry air is gone the bottoms gonna fall out.

Read an article that the snowpack is 75% below average and if it doesnt improve they may have to shut down the generators an Glen Canyon Dam. Yikes!

If Lucy's dry air doesn't pull the ball we could be getting an honest to goodness Big Dog here. Earlier onset the better. My call for 7 looks money but odds are increasing for a bust high substantially. Models keep upping the saturation times little by little. Definitely our brethren just S look to go 12+. Some of these soundings from various models showing 15-18k ft deep DGZ's Sat evening. And man, if we can get any decent wind this stuffs gonna be white waves. Gonna be the kind of snow that stacks quick.

Winter Mothership!

"Reasonable worst case" lol. Never seen that before

`Still think my call for 7 is still in play. Chance of hitting double digits have diminished some but getting close to a nowcast and subtle changes in QPF can make a BIG difference with these SLR's approaching 25-1, especially on the N/NW side. As OHWeather pointed out the drivers the limiter on "our" side of this thing is going to be how long it takes the DGZ and that dry NE flow at the surface to get juiced and the amount of forcing we can get before it shunts E. As a note, not in our forum but I have a lot of connections in the NC mnt's. A lot of focus has been on deep south ice but I cannot emphasize enough how much more devastating ice in the those mnts just due to limited infrastructure and emergency access. I have been watching the models and every 25-50 years we get a setup like this that could be setting up for the NC/SC mnts. More and more its looking like a strong CAD trapped on the eastern slopes setting up a wedge where the surface low, instead of shunting E through the Chattanooga plateau where they usually do in winter (sad for us), and instead is going to ride up to the Shenandoah valley and shunt E (better for us) there. When this happens you have that warm moist area lifting over the mnts and falling down through that CAD as freezing rain. The setup has to be perfect and this one is as you can see it in the contour fields on the surface maps. Ice storms of this ones potential magnitude there can shut the mnts down for MONTHS. The locals there that have been there a long time are very aware of the devastation a massive ice storm can bring in the mnt's. They actually fear those more than a flooding hurricane remnant. I've seen it myself and it looks like an area the size of Vermont was hit by a bomb. Sorry for the off topic but a lot of concern for them right now.

Yep. I posted about that earlier today. When we get these NE flows on the backside dry air in the DGZ can be a mf#$%er unless your just down wind of an open lake. Models are taking their time juicing up at 700mb. BUT we also get some of our biggest snows once the moisture wraps around. Granted you're a little farther NW but I still think once the juice gets wrapped we could get a quasi double hit TROWAL type setup on the N/NW side. Thats where the extremely cold air is going to get smacked by a cross country warm source moisture filled slap. Trying to stay positive and thinking the GFS is off on this one. At least could be riding the line of single to double digits instead of dust to 2in

The pretty high SLR's are gonna play big on totals obviously. Averaging .6 QPF across all the models here which would normally be in the 6in range (yes I know y'all can do math). The farther N the drier but the higher the SLR and possibly a brutal cutoff. Kuchera ratio's 20-1 all the way up into MI on all the models. Its definitely gonna take a little more time to juice up the DGZ (outside of leeside lake enhanced) up here with the growth zone pretty dry to start. Thats killed us in this area a few times this winter and is usually an issue trying to overcome a dry NE flow. To me, thats the biggest wrench that could happen here. It's too bad that as of now there's not much wind on the back end although it doesn't take much out where I live to get good drifting going. If we could get just 20 to 30 with higher gusts it would be bangers. Hate to waste Driftomatic powder. Hoping this thing does a last minute MJ side step fade NW. Make a lot of people more comfy and happy around here

KIND expanded WSW north to cover their entire forecast area. Discussion wording is still fairly bullish on potential bust low for locations N of I70. Potential is definitely there but gotta think positive! BTW, is their a MET at the KIND office named Bud? lol

7 here final call. Bust potential 3 up or down me thinks. That 12Z Canuk, oh Lawdy, I won't complain until next December if that happens!! lol

SREF "Doom" Viewer gives me 8in so I'm gonna get 1in lmfao