LP08
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Everything posted by LP08
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I laughed pretty good and also exactly what @Cobalt said.
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It’s the only reason we have any chance at all lol. The high position is not the reason we are flipping and not all snow. It’s practically ideal.
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Ugh. You’re right and I’m an idiot. Point remains lol.
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I don’t understand this post. The high is is in pretty good spot.
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Interesting is a lot nicer word than I would have used! Luckily it’s the only model really focusing that southern max of the initial push. I have a feeling that it will settle along a line from Winchester to northern Maryland, but without that dramatic drop in between.
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Yup. Longer duration too. All in all a better run for just about everyone.
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Definitely. That panel is wetter than 6z. I am resigned to the fact that we will mix (and probably mix earlier than models suggest) but everything on the EPS looked a hair colder.
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EPS colder and snowier for just about everyone than 6Z. This panel is money.
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Total Precip and all frozen north of Richmond.
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Or basically the Euro. Damnit, I'm turning into DT!
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You can set your watch to every storm that between the GFS and Euro run, people get contentious. Banterish first call. 2-4" snow/sleet through the "corridor" of us near the city. 4-8" NW and North of the line from Leesburg/Winchester to North of 495 in MD with local jackpots to 10".
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Through 51, DC is hanging on or close to the flip, but the damage has been done. Looks great if we believe it.
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At 45, main WAA slug is still positioned to go through the cities, compared to the NAM that has it further north in PA. Waiting on soundings for it
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Through 33, heights on the 12z gfs are slightly higher and the 700 temps are a little north. ULL north of NE is slightly further east.
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Probably a mix of Snow missiles and sleet bombs (Bob Chill quote I'm sure) if the rates materialize. Just gotta maximize the first 1-2 hours hopefully.
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3k looks like mostly sleet, no soundings yet but pushes 700 temps further north than 6z.
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To my eyes its the best "Snow" run the Nam has had but not quite what the globals have.
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Snow into Winchester by 9z. Flatter and a smidge colder.
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I don't necessarily agree with the "Drying trend". Yes, the euro is no longer spitting out 1.4" of QPF but its, IMO, within normal run to run variance. As we near events, models will always trim the NW extent, but ill be there will be some meso band in the usual places. 12z yesterday through 6z today.
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I'll take 1-2 hours of this before going over to all sleet. Won't be nice fluffy dendrites but just complete craziness.
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6z EURO. Basically the same as 0z.
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You can feel the angst building. I had to watch Howard Bernstein on WUSA9 to feel better.
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Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED
LP08 replied to WinterWxLuvr's topic in Mid Atlantic
Ukie will make friends. Just awesome.
