weatherwiz

Looks like worst passing southwest of BDL. Avon/west Hartford area

Ughh I think the shelf is being obscured by some showers out front

There may be enough time for the atmosphere to recover in the wake of this activity for a second round. Will be a nowcast ordeal (when isn’t it)

I should start seeing a shelf cloud creeping over the horizon soon

This stuff may rapidly intensify moving east into the Valley. MLCaPE at 2000 with mlvl lapse rates about 6 SBCAPE at 3500…not to mention the shear

Even some rotation with that over Winsted

Wind wind signal over Goshen

Headed to BDL

still have some MLCIN which we sort of want right now to get to as close to full destabilization as possible but once that erodes we may start seeing some cells fire up. That line though along the NY/PA border may greatly intensity as it moves east.

Watch coming within the next few hours

I agree though, that could screw things up a bit.

Mesosnalysis (which uses RAP for background state) shows widespread 2000 J of MLCAPE this afternoon. That would probably be enough to support potential for numerous damaging wind gusts.

Crap they bite. Now I’m not going to be able to sleep. Hopefully it doesn’t come back up the drain

I was trying to look closely at the body…there was like a red rectangular outline. I think it’s dead now though, my girlfriend got the fly swatter and well it’s down the sink drain now.

Nice llvl turning there. Lapse rate not too terrible but hate that little warm layer just below 500. Also, that 79F dew may be a bit much

What the heck kind of a spider is this? Hole it’s not a black window

Some interesting looking hodographs too, wouldn't be surprised if initially we saw some supercells. If we do see supercells initially, there could even be some splitting supercells. Tomorrow will be another nowcast day, but the HRRR/NAM continues to be very impressive with the instability. If we see 2000+ MLCAPE develop, I think we'll see a corridor of numerous wind damage reports. I am skeptical we see those values though, with lack of capping and what looks to be a pre-frontal developing early on, I think we're going to pop stuff too early and that will prevent max instability from being realized.

Should see a FROPA sometime end of the week but that may mean storm chances on the 4th or Friday depending on timing.

I do think clouds/morning precip are going to prevent us from achieving the higher end of the instability potential. I would wager we only get up to around 1500 J of MLCAPE (As opposed to 2000-2500). Localized severe still likely but not getting 2000-2500 will prevent severe from being more widespread.

Indeed, sometimes how the morning performs with the warm front can be a solid precursor to how the afternoon will perform, especially when you're talking about instability being on the greater end of the spectrum.

Currently, a northwest to southeast oriented warm front resides from the northern Great Lakes region into Canada southeast across Pennsylvania and into portions of the mid-Atlantic. This warm front accelerates northeast through the remainder of Saturday, advecting in a moisture rich, high theta-e airmass into New England with dewpoints likely into the lower 70's by early Sunday morning. Through the day today, a shortwave trough dives into the upper-Midwest and amplifies as it progresses across the northern Great Lakes region towards the northeast. The result will be unseasonably strong wind shear overspreading the region characterized by 40-45 knots of bulk shear. In addition, winds in the lowest levels of the atmosphere in the wake of the warm front may remain more southerly with winds more west-southerly aloft. Where llvl winds remain more backed, large helicity values in the 0-1km and 0-3km are likely with as much as 150 m2s2 in the 0-1km layer and 150-200 m2s2 in the 0-3km layer. At the surface, temperatures are expected to climb into the upper 70's to lower 80's with dewpoints into the lower 70's (even as high as 73-75°F should dewpoint pooling result). Depending on the extent of morning cloud cover and degree of heating, temperatures, especially in the valley, could soar as high as 83-85. Despite marginal mlvl lapse rates (~6 C/KM), the combination of surface temperatures into the lower 80's and dewpoints into the lower 70's may yield moderate instability characterized by MLCAPE values in the 1500-2000 J/KG range and SBCAPE values around 2000-2500 J/KG. It should be interesting to note some forecast model guidance is suggesting MLCAPE values could approach 2500+ J/KG with SBCAPE values exceeding 3000 J/KG. These values are difficult to obtain without mlvl lapse rates ~7 C/KM and greater, however, if surface temperatures can near 85 and dewpoints climb into the 74-75°F range, these values could become obtained. The combination of moderate instability and strong wind shear ahead of an approaching cold front and likely pre-frontal trough development will be more than favorable for scattered-to-numerous thunderstorms developing by early afternoon and organizing into one or multiple convective lines. This combination of ingredients is also supportive for the strongest thunderstorms to produce locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps even a tornado. There are some caveats, however, which may reduce a more organized severe weather episode from occurring. In addition to the marginal mlvl lapse rates, the strongest shortwave forcing remains displaced well to the west of the best overlap of shear/instability with forecast model guidance showing the best shortwave forcing still in southeast Canada between the mid-to-late afternoon. All in all, the expectation is scattered-to-numerous thunderstorms develop across interior southeast New York by early afternoon with activity quickly organizing into one or more convective lines. Should the more extreme instability scenarios verify (MLCAPE > 2000-2500 J/KG) potential for a more widespread damaging wind producing event will increase. Given the larger helicity values, there would even be potential for an embedded tornado or two. Any tornado potential would be highest with any discrete cells which form initially or out ahead of the line. Localized flash flooding will be a concern as well given PWAT values approaching and exceeding 2''.

Thread for Sunday coming soon

I always love when I see the 3km being aggressive with convection.

Alot of the soundings though show some subtle little warm layers up around 700 and just below 500. But this could be minute if we actually see these CAPE numbers verify with 40-50 knots of bulk shear in place and ~150 m2s2 of 0-1km helicity.

Lapse rates are not great tomorrow but seeing models developing ~2500 J of MLCAPE and ~3000 J of SBCAPE. That is significant stuff, especially given the dynamics. If we realize those numbers severe could certainly be a bit more on the widespread side.