weatherwiz

Gotta say…these aren’t bad at all. Very refreshing

That's some intense wording from the D2

I am not sure we will see the sfc warm front make much progress into SNE. It may get held way back across NY/PA. I'm not even sure if we have a shot for thunderstorms with the current look. Don't even see any elevated CAPE getting into the region.

The breeze is a bit much but this is phenomenal. Would be 10/10 perfect if not for the breeze (or if it was lighter anyways).

I just really hope the extended GFS is out of whack. It's been doing some funky stuff in the medium-to-long range lately. Not sure if its just behind with the seasonal transition or just struggling to handle (putting too much weight) on some of the teleconnectors which should be losing weight on the overall pattern, structure, and evolution.

Could see some nasty storms across NY/PA Monday.

I'll be off June 1 - 13 so hopefully we can get a few solid setups.

Wow that's wild. Sometimes with these you can get very brief circulations right along the leading edge, certainly possible something could have very briefly touched down. Maybe it is one of those infamous Kevin tree topper TORs.

Yeah was looking back at radar scans as that cell was ongoing yesterday and didn't see anything indicating a potential TOR. There was the nice look of "red velocities next to green velocities" but when in motion, they looked to be more divergent than rotational and I didn't notice any big CC drop. Also, the reflectivity signature looked more indicative of straight-line wind versus tornado.

oof don't like the sound of that. I will look into something. I just hope it's not something that will worsen over time. The dog turns 10 years old in July and still acts like a puppy. All he wants to do is play. I get nervous because my girlfriend told me his breed only lives to be like 10-12 years old or something. But hoping as long as he is active, remains in good health, and we do the yearly checkups he should be good. I'm even considering doing 6 month checkups now that he is getting older. Thank you!

oh crap...I have to read your reply. He's been better these past few weeks. There is certainly still weakness though within his lower back, its evident by the way he moves (especially when he does quick movements) and the back left leg just sticks out differently than the others.

I wonder if CC can pick up flying dog poop

Very nice cell...definitely a bit of a wind signal and signature.

Getting some increases in flashes and the nice long, loud booms. So we definitely elevated with an inversion

Yup...this has been brutal to watch unfold these last few summers. I guess this stuff is like winter wx...we can go a span of multiple years where we get clobbered and get a handful of them and we can go several year stretches without any.

Hopefully we can get some EML setups this summer. but give me those or cold pool setups like 2008. but for now, at least looking forward to some good thunder and lightning

more of a joke lol. Unless the storms become rooted surface based there will be minimal wind. Small hail is going to be the best bet within these. I would think you see some strengthening of this activity though with eastward progression. Might be one of those times SE CT does best

I'm on the shoreline. I'm hoping for golf ball hail and 70 mph winds

The steep lapse rates should help compensate for marine air a bit, but lapse rates are weakening (probably from latent heat release). Anyways, good elevated CAPE so should see decent elevated storms at least

Also looks like that stuff in SE NY about to track along southern CT is becoming more sfc based so may see increasing risk for localized damaging wind gusts

I wonder if we can pop one or two cells later this afternoon across southeastern NH. We aren't going to see much of anything this afternoon, but if a storm can pop it will have alot to work with.

It seems to be right along a weak theta-e boundary and nose of stronger mlvl jet. Also have the pressure trough kicking east

ehhh the only difference between now and later is elevated convection versus surfaced-based convection. It's a favorable environment for elevated convection and hail. The damaging wind gust threat with this stuff is lower. While it would be higher later on, it may not be that much higher because llvl shear is pretty weak. I don't think there is that much of a difference if this stuff held off a few hours later

yup...was hoping maybe it would intensify but nada thus far. But it is a bit more promising southwest back into PA

mesonet station measured 59 mph gust in NJ like an hour ago...not bad for this time of day