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Everything posted by weatherwiz
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Blowvember - and not named for wind potential
weatherwiz replied to Go Kart Mozart's topic in New England
It's really wild. I was looking at H5 evolution on the 6z GFS and thought maybe we could see a decent chance for some rain with that cold front around that time frame but looked at the sfc and nope. It's a vigorous trough that digs, unfortunately it becomes a massive, occluded piece of junk which results in the whole system weakening as it moves into the Northeast. Really the whole pattern moving forward seems to favor closed off systems within the mid-west which occlude as they move across the Ohio Valley leaving us with nada. We need a drastic PAC shakeup and probably need a massive shakeup over Europe/Asia (moreso Asia) to get things jumpstarted. -
Blowvember - and not named for wind potential
weatherwiz replied to Go Kart Mozart's topic in New England
Right, I've been thinking about that. That is some pretty brutal luck. I often wonder, if we did not have that massive HP over us when Helene was moving inland, if we would have had some big impact here (assuming Helene would have taken a more eastward track up the coast versus going up the Tennessee Valley). -
Blowvember - and not named for wind potential
weatherwiz replied to Go Kart Mozart's topic in New England
Thinking about winter storm potential. when you're trough is already starting to dig here and your system is still way down there...not happening -
Blowvember - and not named for wind potential
weatherwiz replied to Go Kart Mozart's topic in New England
If this does go into Florida (which I think is a pretty good shot, its just a matter of whether its southern Florida or farther north along the coast) this will almost certainly become absorbed by the approaching trough and quickly get shunted east. Not a pattern where a system is captured and slung northwards up the coast. -
Blowvember - and not named for wind potential
weatherwiz replied to Go Kart Mozart's topic in New England
At least based on bufkit, the GFS is lightest with winds but MOS/NBM keep BOS around 10 knots through the night. Even if you look at NAM bufkit at BOS, coldest 2M temp is right around 32 and it doesn't really seem favorable for rad cooling (unless the winds ended up becoming quite lite) but yeah...even if that happens 22 isn't happening. -
Blowvember - and not named for wind potential
weatherwiz replied to Go Kart Mozart's topic in New England
The MET should just be canned. There are situations where it will outperform but 99% of the time its pure garbage...waste of resources really. Maybe not as much around these parts but other areas of the county it can be an absolute embarrassment. I get MOS isn't going to handle anomalous patterns at all but there are some situations it will be like 10-20F below MAV/NBM. -
Blowvember - and not named for wind potential
weatherwiz replied to Go Kart Mozart's topic in New England
Just saw that lol. GFS/NBM are lower 30's lol -
Blowvember - and not named for wind potential
weatherwiz replied to Go Kart Mozart's topic in New England
Not necessarily. This would be purely tropical. Let's say this made landfall across say the Florida Panhandle, it could be transitioning then. -
Blowvember - and not named for wind potential
weatherwiz replied to Go Kart Mozart's topic in New England
I don't disagree with your statement here, however, unfortunately most don't view it in this sense. -
Blowvember - and not named for wind potential
weatherwiz replied to Go Kart Mozart's topic in New England
Serious? That's ridiculous. No need for models to go out that far, what a waste of money and resources. Put the resources to better use. If you're going to run models that far out, then only do like 500mb level. But that aspect wouldn't matter...the vendor sites will continue with their snowfall maps, supercell composite parameters maps, and significant tornado maps. I've even seen this product floating around called accumulated supercell composite parameter...THERE IS NO NEED FOR SUCH A PRODUCT. USE THE RESOURCES ON SOMETHING ELSE. -
Blowvember - and not named for wind potential
weatherwiz replied to Go Kart Mozart's topic in New England
If someone can come up with a fix on why the NAM is absolute trash when it comes to temperatures...they deserve a billion dollars. -
Blowvember - and not named for wind potential
weatherwiz replied to Go Kart Mozart's topic in New England
I've never kept up-to-date much with model upgrades (which is pretty dumb of me) but it seems to me like there's been an awful lot of tinkering with models the last several years. If that is the case, I'm sure much has to do with advancements in research and additional funding but it must be difficult to zero in on any biases and where models struggle the most if you're tinkering so much. But I could be totally off base here. -
Blowvember - and not named for wind potential
weatherwiz replied to Go Kart Mozart's topic in New England
True, the best way to avoid choking in the playoffs is by missing the playoffs. -
Blowvember - and not named for wind potential
weatherwiz replied to Go Kart Mozart's topic in New England
Well I guess we've arrived to the point in the season where 1. The first "winter" threat is around Thanksgiving. Then when that doesn't happen... 2. EPS shows big pattern change coming around D10...winter should settle in by 12/10. Then when that doesn't happen... 3. Pattern being delayed, but should change around Christmas. Then when that doesn't happen... 4. A bit delayed but EPS still insistent on a change around D10...probably first or second week of January things change. Then when that doesn't happen... 5. Looks like we'll have a window around mid-February, then maybe again early March, otherwise we're cooked. Reminds me of the diagram meme for Cowboys fans -
Blowvember - and not named for wind potential
weatherwiz replied to Go Kart Mozart's topic in New England
why would you mow the lawn in November lol. And we haven't had rain in like 4 months...why is there a need to mow? -
Blowvember - and not named for wind potential
weatherwiz replied to Go Kart Mozart's topic in New England
Pretty wild. With this wind outside given it’s November 8 you would expect it to be quite cold but it’s actually not terrible out. A bit chilly but could be a lot worse given the wind -
Blowvember - and not named for wind potential
weatherwiz replied to Go Kart Mozart's topic in New England
I mean I would have to think if you get an intense vort to dig and close off just off the coast, given how warm the waters off, combined with that level of mlvl cold...that would be a recipe for a good coastal storm to develop. -
Blowvember - and not named for wind potential
weatherwiz replied to Go Kart Mozart's topic in New England
That is quite the evolution of the pattern during the second half of the week. That is a pretty significant ridge which gets going across the southern states with a quite a bit of shortwave energy rotating around in Canada with some intense systems moving across the Gulf of Alaska into Canada. Don't really care what the differences are at the sfc right now but even the Euro has a somewhat similar evolution to the GFS. -
Blowvember - and not named for wind potential
weatherwiz replied to Go Kart Mozart's topic in New England
Pretty wild language in the warning -
Blowvember - and not named for wind potential
weatherwiz replied to Go Kart Mozart's topic in New England
Pretty wild stuff eastern Colorado and northeast New Mexico. -
Blowvember - and not named for wind potential
weatherwiz replied to Go Kart Mozart's topic in New England
Certainly seems like the northern hemisphere is about to undergo a major shakeup, what that means for an outcome, who knows. But looks like the hemisphere is ready to actually transition to cool season wavelengths with more wave breaking. -
Blowvember - and not named for wind potential
weatherwiz replied to Go Kart Mozart's topic in New England
I mean BDL isn't too far from downtown Hartford. About 15 minutes without traffic....6 hours with traffic. -
Blowvember - and not named for wind potential
weatherwiz replied to Go Kart Mozart's topic in New England
Was outside last night around 10:00 or so, felt so weird to have it so warm in November...with a totally cloudless sky. -
Blowvember - and not named for wind potential
weatherwiz replied to Go Kart Mozart's topic in New England
If we can just somehow shift that ridging over the Aleutians or maintain it and then shift it into the GoA moving into Dec. that could be a big gam changer. But I really worry with how pronounced that ridging is which extends from the Pacific through Mexico and into the Southeast U.S. -
Blowvember - and not named for wind potential
weatherwiz replied to Go Kart Mozart's topic in New England
1000%. What good is a discussion without both sides of an argument? It's how we learn and grow. I mean if we all agreed on the same thing and all had the same analysis and assessment of forecast models...there would be no need for discussion...would be boring as hell haha