weatherwiz

I think he meant earliest in terms of lead time? But I think I've seen some watches hoisted in the Sierra's like 5 days out before.

Winter storm watches in Montana

yeah SW CT may be a decent spot for best chance for stronger storms. southern VT/northwest MA I don't think is as good as it previously looked.

the rainfall totals in southern Florida are absolutely insane. High risk for FF today too. Scary wording

Saw that...interesting. Right now seems to be mesos vs non mesos

How come everyone has to assume that when talking about thunderstorms that automatically means it has to be a high risk setup, if not then its a "bust"?

I was worried that system may have some influence on this

that def has me a bit intrigued.

Thread for Friday made

An amplifying shortwave trough with associated cold front at the surface traverse the Northeast Friday. Ahead of the approaching cold front, temperatures are expected to warm into the 70's and 80's with dewpoints climbing into the 60's. This should result in mixed-layer CAPE values ranging anywhere between 1,000-1,500 J/KG by peak heating. While there is potential for a narrow corridor of values in the 1,500-2,000 range, weak mid-level lapse rates will limit how unstable the atmosphere will become. Associated with the approaching shortwave trough will be seasonably strong dynamics characterized by 30-35 knots of bulk shear. Given the combination of modest instability, adequate deep layer shear, and strong forcing, scattered thunderstorms should develop by mid-day across central New York southwest into Pennsylvania. Given shear will become parallel to the front, convection should grow upscale into a line and then slowly sag southeast through the remainder of the afternoon and early evening. While low-level winds aren't overly impressive, the combination of steep lapse rates and unstable low-levels will yield the risk for damaging wind gusts within the strongest cells. Higher 0-3km helicity values may result in the potential for some small hail with any transient supercell structures and storm motion parallel to the front will yield potential for localized flash flooding, particularly in low-lying, flood prone areas. Best chance for strong thunderstorms will be across southern Vermont, southern New Hampshire, western Mass, and northwest Connecticut.

I'll probably make a Friday thread soon. Stay tuned! Models had this pegged for a week...not bad.

And it’s not even seltzer! I can’t stand seltzer. My girlfriend says they’re the same but she had me try a seltzer and blah.

High Noons are so delicious and only 4.5%. So if you’re with people and having fun and tend to drink more quickly, you can have 5 or 6 of these and not feel much.

I have an IPA in the fridge but I’ve been really turned into High Noon’s. Been having one a day while on vacation. I open one up around noon and takes me lol like 7-8 hours to drink it. But I am drinking a few miller lites now. I really love IPAs but I get the 9-10+% once’s and after a few I’m done. High Noons are incredible…can’t believe I didn’t find that out earlier

I can sacrifice some trolling for a great night

Summah vibes

I might get my whole yard enclosed so they can’t land here

I used to rub hand soap on my mosquito bites. Read it helped with the itching and it worked

Friday continues to look rather decent.

Sure does, and figures my vacation ends Thursday but I am going to swing it to be able to chase Friday.

I'm serious

chilly...had to put the heat on in the car on the way to the store.

I like to live dangerously

Yeah right. I wonder though if in the modeling world if there are any hypotheses as to why the GFS likes to overmix in the medium/long-range. Hell, the GFS can even tend to overmix in the short range. I find it interesting how the NAM tends to undermix while the GFS tends to overmix. There must be something within the boundary layer physics of each model contributing to this. I mean look at this sounding right around the 102°F in northeast Mass. We're mixing up to ~750mb there and that's gotta be as close to superadiabatic lapse rate as you can get. I doubt there are any records on this anywhere but I would go out and wager we hardly, if ever, even came close to mixing to such a level. This is the type of sounding you would expect to see within the Southwest. As dendrite always mentions to keep reality in check, we almost always see the outcome be temperatures several degrees cooler with dewpoints several degrees warmer. 925 temps are modeled to be around 30°C with 850 temps around 23°C. Don't you want to see 850 temps more around 26 or so to get a legit shot for 100 here (assuming full sun/mixing)?

The heat and humidity are coming. Not only will be it big heat and humidity but it will be long-duration. Only short breaks will be when shortwaves rotate through bringing severe weather. People can try to poo-poo or downplay but that doesn't change the reality of what is coming. My recommendation is get your window units and central air units checked to ensure they are operating at max capacity. Get those thick green curtains for the windows to block out sunlight from entering the house. Create a schedule where you are doing all your outdoor stuff either early morning or late afternoon/early evening. Anyone not prepared will regret. There will be so many chairs, couches, etc. stuck to bottoms it will be visible from the space station.