weatherwiz

I think I saw dendrite talking about this shortwave energy in one of the pages I was catching up on from overnight/this morning but maybe the NAM is being a bit too aggressive with it...too much influence from convection (though convection doesn't look like a big deal). But I guess there are two ways to look a this: 1) The NAM is totally off its rocker 2) It's a feasible reality and something that shouldn't be discounted, especially at this range. We all know the NAM isn't the greatest synoptically, however, it's not like it's presented output here is something that is outlandish or unlikely. It basically just continues indicating there is alot of spread. I'd be nervous putting snow maps out right now, especially if on the aggressive side.

yeah for sure...but I guess for the NAM and its putridness with synoptics we take as a win

It does seem a bit better aloft so far

It can def be a bad thing I can have a terrible tendency of trying to over complicate or get “too cute”. This is exactly why I never get too far with seasonal forecasting, I try to get too peculiar with ENSO breakdowns and I get myself all a mess haha.

Excellent post!

BDL. I hope this verifies. And I don't mind looking at what ratios look like this far out so don't weenie me

I wonder if the NAM is kind of chasing convection a bit there. But whatever...84 hr NAM.

I think it also depends on region...some areas it can be brutal in. Obviously it isn't going to handle anomalous patterns well but you're right...you have to know when to deviate from it.

Some notable differences aloft on NAM versus GFS/Euro (I know shocker, right).

Assuming this stays on course, the NAM should probably start becoming more beneficial 12z or 18z Saturday when really starting to diagnose banding potential and those specifics.

I just really hate MOS When I used to participate in the forecast challenge, if you basically ripped and read MOS for temps/wind you would get destroyed. Unfortunately, I still use MOS/NBM a ton because there is no other choice but it is cringeworthy how bad it really is and can be. I know feasibly forecasting specifics like temp/sky cover/wind takes an in-depth dive but if you don't have that capability to really do that...ugly ugly

wth...using MOS numbers for snowfall? I didn't realize anyone still did that. MOS is a piece of trash, unfortunately there is nothing else to use for quickly forecasting temperatures.

Oh boy...I hope they can incorporate that into bufkit

Even better than cobb?

Exactly. And with that, I think there is room to see this trend a bit stronger as we get closer and I would lean towards that happening. These trends I think are models catching up to the full potential. The 850/700/500 looks are very good here.

Have to see what bufkit shows around noon but ratios could be extremely good. I would have to think, at least under the banding, we could push anywhere from 15:1 to 20:1. Talking about highest ratios here...obviously will differ probably towards the coast.

Very nice (this is in northeast CT ish). I'm looking at national map so not zoomed in.

yeah I was able to see that with Scott's suggestion of clicking radar (rain/frozen) versus MSLP + radar.

some pretty good llvl inflow with strengthening llj. Going to see a pretty solid band if that verifies.

ahh makes sense. I would prefer to see more though than QPF but I would hope this is an encouraging signal for fronto potential at 78hr

Weird, hours 84-96 are grayed out for me on TT

I have a feeling Sunday night is going to surprise. You have some nice PVA feeding in and we're on the nose of a pretty strong 500mb jet streak. There should be some great frontogenesis over the region too. This would be one where I think the heaviest banding of snow would be farther northwest than models indicate and there is a nice inverted trough feature. I think this could evolve into a 3-6" type event for much of the region and maybe as much as 6-9" where heaviest banding traverses.

What's going to happen is we're going to get into the second half and February and first half of March and have all kinds of potential...but it will be interior/elevation that ends up cashing in. It will be the period where we're all hooting and hollering, "If only we got this setup x number of weeks ago".

euro still has Sunday night. Could see a nice heavy band evolve well northwest of the center, albeit narrow.

Very intriguing period for sure.