weatherwiz

I was thinking something similar to myself earlier. I don't know if we'll really see any oppressive dewpoints with this. Now I don't think dews will be low enough or mix low enough for widespread 100+. The plume of richest theta-e air and llvl moisture will be off to the West.

too bad corn isn't in season yet

May see some thunderstorms develop across the higher terrain tomorrow, though perhaps some better coverage across NY/PA. Both the NAM/GFS have some vorticity across Michigan which all so ever slowly progresses east and doesn't even move across our region until tomorrow afternoon.

Just checked the NBM percentiles for CON and you have to get into the 99th percentile to get highs in the 101-103 range. So unless we get the big mixing widespread 101-103 does seem difficult to obtain. Also, not even factoring in any potential high clouds...haven't looked into this potential yet.

ehhh as much as I hate how the media hypes up weather I don't mind the big hype with the heat/humidity. Sure it's not that big of a deal to some but it is extremely dangerous. Unfortunately, there are idiots who leave kids or pets in the car and not realizing how extreme temperatures can get inside vehicles, paved surfaces are very dangerous for dog walking, and of course you have the vulnerability to the elderly, homeless population, and children.

Enough with the depressing later sunrise/earlier sunset talk. Focus on the heat/humidity. More heat, more humidity. The higher, the better.

Looks like for the foreseeable future any precipitation chances are either going to be tied into pop-up showers or thunderstorms or with any approaching cold fronts. Obviously with this some are going to win and some will lose.

Yeah don't see much going on this week. Maybe some high terrain showers/thunder. Hoping the front Friday can give us a better chance for thunderstorms though we could have some capping issues given how warm it is at H7 but maybe forcing will be enough to break it.

I was just going to say...if ORH ever hit 100 at their current location then we are having some record smashing heat with many stations probably breaking their all-time max records.

It used to but I’ll wear shorts now if it’s 85-90 but it also depends. If I have to be stuck mostly inside I’ll wear long pants. It drives me nuts how establishments (or at home) just crank the AC. I do like the AC at night because it’s miserable to sleep when it’s warm but if you’re just sitting behind a desk or out somewhere there is zero need to have the AC cranked so low.

Big deal a little bit of heat is coming. Just trade in the jeans for some shorts and drink water.

we should see some activity materialize later. Heavy rain certainly the biggest impact with storms but there will be room for some localized strong-to-severe storms.

Atmosphere seems to be recovering well and the mlvl lapse rates aren't as bad as was being modeled. Could help maybe get a corridor of 1500+ MLCAPE where clouds breaks continue.

May head to BDL shortly for that cell in eastern NY. May end up sliding a bit south of BDL though.

western Mass and northwest CT still in the game for later this afternoon.

western Mass and northwest CT still in the game for later this afternoon.

Hope this works https://www.wfsb.com/2024/06/14/chunk-ice-falls-sky-crashing-into-familys-roof/?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTEAAR0dnp9tNhWDiTaoTTDC0nzlkUovoDIdKbKDiLLBXsqv_9U3NoDPS0V9sn8_aem_ZmFrZWR1bW15MTZieXRlcw

Oh def not hail. yeah I’m thinking it was a chunk of ice off a plane…maybe frozen poop?

This is insane. I saw an mPING report on Radarscope that said hail > 5.00'' in northern New Jersey...I was like wtf. There is even anything there. I just found out a large chunk of ice crashed through the roof of a house

This round of showers may end up being too strong and screw things up for later. 3km NAM I think is on that idea happening.

yup

Yup...given the weak mid-level lapse rates we need to maximize sfc heating so we can achieve maximum instability. Mid-level lapse rates may also improve some as the day progresses. Could see them in the 6-6.5 C/KM range which isn't terrible, especially around here. HRRR continues to be rather inconsistent with its run-to-run evolution, however, I think we have a solid idea on how today evolves. We see some early stuff move through (which may also set a boundary for later) then by mid-to-late afternoon we see rapid development and a quick organization into a line with a focus on where the boundary resides.

This aspect has been intriguing. Seems like we've been trending in this direction.

It should be active in terms of showers and thunderstorms today. Obviously any severe storms are going to be more localized. But those hoping for some rain will certainly have a chance today.

well we'll see what early morning runs look like but the mesos have been all over the place. Not atypical for this far out but we've yet to see much consistency.