weatherwiz

Certainly can't argue with that. IMO, why the early activity held things back is the forcing wasn't there just yet. Even with the early activity, we achieved maximum instability, which I didn't think would happen with an earlier show. SBCAPE got to ~3000 and MLCAPE ~2000 per mesoanalysis. I don't think we would have gotten any higher with another few hours of heating given the marginal lapse rates. Strong forcing/height falls goes a tremendous ways with severe weather and widespread severe weather. Great CAPE and shear is needed but if the forcing isn't there, the extent of potential will not be realized. While we had the steeper lapse rates Wednesday, we also had much favorable shortwave forcing. IMO, that is what we lacked today.

As said, severe here is nothing lime Oklahoma or the Great Plains. I see you live in Connecticut. Connecticut averages about 1.5 tornadoes per year and all are relatively weak and short-lived. The last major tornado in the state was July 10, 1989 when an F4 tornado impacted an area from Hamden to North Haven. We have had several events over the years produce multiple tornadoes, but again all weak and generally short-lived. In terms of hail and straight-line wind damage, it is usually not high impact. For the most part, the largest hail we will get is anywhere between 1.00-1.50'' in diameter and every now and then you'll get a golf ball report but that is rather infrequent. For straight-line winds, generally the highest is in the 50-60 mph range. The bigger issue is we have weak trees and lots of overgrown trees so power outages can become a concern. Outside of Wednesday, the last major severe weather event to impact the state was August 2020 and prior to that was 5/15/2018. High-end severe here is very rare. We just have so many trees, weak and rotted, and many properties have trees in close proximity to houses.

Isn't the 4th on Thursday?

Well lets put it like this... We were upgraded to an enhanced risk for the potential damaging winds (30%). What does that mean? It means there is a 30% chance of a damaging winds or gusts (>50 knots) within 25 miles of a point within the outlined area. So I guess there are two ways to look at this 1) How many measured wind gusts of 58 mph were there? 2) How many wind damage reports were there?

Ehhh…I’m not sure what the exact criteria is for verifying the risk categories, but based off the storm reports I don’t think the enhanced was a terrible call. There were concentrated swaths of wind damage reports within the risk area. I guess maybe you would expect to see a significant damaging wind gust report or two (>65 knots).

Have convection firing from around Albany - southwest. See what happens as it moves towards western Mass

correct, anvil debris from the stuff which moved through and also the stuff west and southwest. Looking at latest satellite and mesoanalysis, we will destabilize enough for a second round but not enough for much of a severe threat except super localized

I think we may have enough of a window to re-destabilize and have a shot for a second round. What may be a bigger inhibitor is anvil debris. Headed back home so can look in more detail soon.

winds not bad here!

Looks like worst passing southwest of BDL. Avon/west Hartford area

Ughh I think the shelf is being obscured by some showers out front

There may be enough time for the atmosphere to recover in the wake of this activity for a second round. Will be a nowcast ordeal (when isn’t it)

I should start seeing a shelf cloud creeping over the horizon soon

This stuff may rapidly intensify moving east into the Valley. MLCaPE at 2000 with mlvl lapse rates about 6 SBCAPE at 3500…not to mention the shear

Even some rotation with that over Winsted

Wind wind signal over Goshen

Headed to BDL

still have some MLCIN which we sort of want right now to get to as close to full destabilization as possible but once that erodes we may start seeing some cells fire up. That line though along the NY/PA border may greatly intensity as it moves east.

Watch coming within the next few hours

I agree though, that could screw things up a bit.

Mesosnalysis (which uses RAP for background state) shows widespread 2000 J of MLCAPE this afternoon. That would probably be enough to support potential for numerous damaging wind gusts.

Crap they bite. Now I’m not going to be able to sleep. Hopefully it doesn’t come back up the drain

I was trying to look closely at the body…there was like a red rectangular outline. I think it’s dead now though, my girlfriend got the fly swatter and well it’s down the sink drain now.

Nice llvl turning there. Lapse rate not too terrible but hate that little warm layer just below 500. Also, that 79F dew may be a bit much

What the heck kind of a spider is this? Hole it’s not a black window