weatherwiz

see some people going wild for NY/PA with severe potential tomorrow. Seems awfully difficult to me to develop strong/severe convection when 700mb temps are warming above +10C through the day. Torrential downpours with thunder...yes. Severe convection ehhhhhh

I am a little perplexed with the SPC saying lack of CINH tomorrow within the slight risk zone. Was looking at sound soundings and there is a pretty stout cap around 800mb. There will certainly be an abundance of llvl instability and the shear profile is noteworthy but I wonder how many mature discrete cells will develop in NY/PA. There may be a very narrow corridor that way though with some enhanced tornado potential.

I think the rainfall totals may be underdone as well. The rainfall rates are going to be through the roof. There will certainly be terrain enhancement going on.

Yup going to be difficult to get much convection tomorrow or Thursday (even though we have the marginal tomorrow). It is super warm aloft. Its like +10C to +12C at 700...going to need some major forcing to break that.

was it weather lord?

That's the best...when its just as hot in the shade as it is under the Sun.

The NAM looks like a winter storm evolution across the OV tomorrow

man Houston got crushed pretty good.

Just signed up for pest control and they’ll be coming every few months to spray for spiders. I shall never see spiders inside again muhahahaha

I just happened to open RadarScope, saw the warning, and read the wording lol. After I saw your post I went back and the entire thing was gone

Seriously? Yikes.

Nice cell in SW CT

Well that task is done. Goal achieved…every square inch of my body is drenched and dripping with sweat. My jeans are totally stuck to my legs and Fanny. Time to slowly peel off my clothes and take a dip in the shower.

Well my shirt is nearly soaked through…next the jeans!

Might May naked in the lawn and feel the cool breeze stream across my body hairs

Taking apart some wood fencing panels and was going to wear shorts but I elected to wear jeans so I can get the maximum experience of sweat pouring down my legs and jean fabric sticking to every square millimeter of my skin. Afterwards, I’m slowly going to peel them off and enjoy the sweet, Sensual sound.

That is a beautiful EML for mid-July. If only

I don't think that has all that much to do with the remnants of Beryl. "Front" which moves through this weekend stalls early in the week and washed out and another weak front comes through mid-week. With at least weak forcing and high theta-e air, we'll see scattered-to-numerous downpours and thunderstorms each day. I would wager the map looks that extreme just because it's not resolving the convection to a smaller scale.

Obviously there is always the question as to whether the GFS (or euro) are overmixing, however, looking at the synoptic look, I don't think overmixing is a culprit here. Going verbatim, the synoptic look doesn't favor a deep southerly or southwesterly flow at the surface. We're kind of westerly through the troposphere. The Southeast ridge there extends well across the deep South into Texas, and may even connect with the west ridge. In this scenario, we're cut off from the true deep tropical flow. I would suspect the best chance of 70+ dews in this regime would be dewpoint pooling ahead of any front as we shift winds out ahead of it.

I don't think Beryl will have any factor on our weather at all. Even in the more extreme scenario of greater impact to Texas, I don't foresee much influence to us. I know sometimes remnants can get drawn into frontal systems but I don't see that here. Maybe a few raindrops can be traced back to the demising stage of Beryl.

Far out there but that is a pretty impressive vortex being modeled on the GFS which swings some potent s/w through southeastern Canada. But yeah looks very warm/dewy and absent of any big heat.

The structure of the ridge across the Southeast will be a factor as well, however, if we end up on the northern periphery of that ridge (southern) we'll be in an active jet pattern so we would have several opportunities for convection due to numerous shortwaves which would likely be embedded within the flow.

It's too much. Just need enough to rustle the leaves a bit.

I hate the term "nice breeze". There's no such thing as a nice breeze. If you want a "nice breeze" go get a fan from Ocean State Job lot and stand in front of it. They're disruptive and you can't do anything...they just blow stuff around. Sitting outside and it blew my plate which had my toaster struddle on it on top of me.

Certainly can't argue with that. IMO, why the early activity held things back is the forcing wasn't there just yet. Even with the early activity, we achieved maximum instability, which I didn't think would happen with an earlier show. SBCAPE got to ~3000 and MLCAPE ~2000 per mesoanalysis. I don't think we would have gotten any higher with another few hours of heating given the marginal lapse rates. Strong forcing/height falls goes a tremendous ways with severe weather and widespread severe weather. Great CAPE and shear is needed but if the forcing isn't there, the extent of potential will not be realized. While we had the steeper lapse rates Wednesday, we also had much favorable shortwave forcing. IMO, that is what we lacked today.