weatherwiz

Never! But 6 more weeks doesn't sounds too bad when you think of it lol.

hmmm maybe Florida gets saved. If center develops where that convection is exploding, this may get disrupted by the Yucatan

Fine by me. I was thinking the other night when I was standing outside at like 6:30 or 7:00...it only 6 months it will still be light out with temps in the 90's and dews in the 70's. Almost there

FWIW, 12z MET came down to Earth for BOS tomorrow night...has a low into the lower 30's. OTOH, it's going wild at some other places

The best thing to probably do is compliment the assessment of D7-10 ensembles and then start assessing how guidance is verifying with the pattern across Asia through the central PAC. If these D7-10 day "pattern changes" have merit, we'll start seeing that in the D3-4 time frame within that region. But then again, when it comes to pattern changes, I guess it depends on what metric someone is using to quantify a pattern change. I mean if we have a pattern with a trough in the west and ridge in the East with a dry east and go to a ridge in the west and trough in the east but still come out dry...that pattern did technically change.

It's really wild. I was looking at H5 evolution on the 6z GFS and thought maybe we could see a decent chance for some rain with that cold front around that time frame but looked at the sfc and nope. It's a vigorous trough that digs, unfortunately it becomes a massive, occluded piece of junk which results in the whole system weakening as it moves into the Northeast. Really the whole pattern moving forward seems to favor closed off systems within the mid-west which occlude as they move across the Ohio Valley leaving us with nada. We need a drastic PAC shakeup and probably need a massive shakeup over Europe/Asia (moreso Asia) to get things jumpstarted.

Right, I've been thinking about that. That is some pretty brutal luck. I often wonder, if we did not have that massive HP over us when Helene was moving inland, if we would have had some big impact here (assuming Helene would have taken a more eastward track up the coast versus going up the Tennessee Valley).

Thinking about winter storm potential. when you're trough is already starting to dig here and your system is still way down there...not happening

If this does go into Florida (which I think is a pretty good shot, its just a matter of whether its southern Florida or farther north along the coast) this will almost certainly become absorbed by the approaching trough and quickly get shunted east. Not a pattern where a system is captured and slung northwards up the coast.

At least based on bufkit, the GFS is lightest with winds but MOS/NBM keep BOS around 10 knots through the night. Even if you look at NAM bufkit at BOS, coldest 2M temp is right around 32 and it doesn't really seem favorable for rad cooling (unless the winds ended up becoming quite lite) but yeah...even if that happens 22 isn't happening.

The MET should just be canned. There are situations where it will outperform but 99% of the time its pure garbage...waste of resources really. Maybe not as much around these parts but other areas of the county it can be an absolute embarrassment. I get MOS isn't going to handle anomalous patterns at all but there are some situations it will be like 10-20F below MAV/NBM.

Just saw that lol. GFS/NBM are lower 30's lol

Not necessarily. This would be purely tropical. Let's say this made landfall across say the Florida Panhandle, it could be transitioning then.

I don't disagree with your statement here, however, unfortunately most don't view it in this sense.

Serious? That's ridiculous. No need for models to go out that far, what a waste of money and resources. Put the resources to better use. If you're going to run models that far out, then only do like 500mb level. But that aspect wouldn't matter...the vendor sites will continue with their snowfall maps, supercell composite parameters maps, and significant tornado maps. I've even seen this product floating around called accumulated supercell composite parameter...THERE IS NO NEED FOR SUCH A PRODUCT. USE THE RESOURCES ON SOMETHING ELSE.

If someone can come up with a fix on why the NAM is absolute trash when it comes to temperatures...they deserve a billion dollars.

I've never kept up-to-date much with model upgrades (which is pretty dumb of me) but it seems to me like there's been an awful lot of tinkering with models the last several years. If that is the case, I'm sure much has to do with advancements in research and additional funding but it must be difficult to zero in on any biases and where models struggle the most if you're tinkering so much. But I could be totally off base here.

True, the best way to avoid choking in the playoffs is by missing the playoffs.

Well I guess we've arrived to the point in the season where 1. The first "winter" threat is around Thanksgiving. Then when that doesn't happen... 2. EPS shows big pattern change coming around D10...winter should settle in by 12/10. Then when that doesn't happen... 3. Pattern being delayed, but should change around Christmas. Then when that doesn't happen... 4. A bit delayed but EPS still insistent on a change around D10...probably first or second week of January things change. Then when that doesn't happen... 5. Looks like we'll have a window around mid-February, then maybe again early March, otherwise we're cooked. Reminds me of the diagram meme for Cowboys fans

why would you mow the lawn in November lol. And we haven't had rain in like 4 months...why is there a need to mow?

Pretty wild. With this wind outside given it’s November 8 you would expect it to be quite cold but it’s actually not terrible out. A bit chilly but could be a lot worse given the wind

I mean I would have to think if you get an intense vort to dig and close off just off the coast, given how warm the waters off, combined with that level of mlvl cold...that would be a recipe for a good coastal storm to develop.

That is quite the evolution of the pattern during the second half of the week. That is a pretty significant ridge which gets going across the southern states with a quite a bit of shortwave energy rotating around in Canada with some intense systems moving across the Gulf of Alaska into Canada. Don't really care what the differences are at the sfc right now but even the Euro has a somewhat similar evolution to the GFS.

Pretty wild language in the warning

Pretty wild stuff eastern Colorado and northeast New Mexico.