weatherwiz

There is something I've always been confused on regarding analogs. When these analogs are being tossed out are they just measuring (or matching up) the projected pattern to a previous pattern? Or do they take into account other factors such as pattern transition/evolution? For example, if December 1989 was popping up as an analog for the first two weeks of February...is that just indicating the projected pattern is very close in magnitude to that of December 1989...and nothing else. This is where I think analogs are limited b/c they just tell you pattern similarities but what they don't tell you is pattern evolution and I would think it's pattern evolution which is the biggest driver into how things transpire (again...this assumption is based on my understanding which may be completely wrong).

Don't forget James 12''

Steve is solid at that. He isn't one to whistle a different tune every time a new model run or data comes out.

I've been reading on on some papers regarding ENSO (not necessarily newly published papers) but one thing I find intriguing regarding ENSO is how the ENSO event develops...and more specifically EL Ninio events. Obviously each event is different...different strengths, where the warmest anomalies are located, but this one paper I'm reading talks about HOW the event develops...I guess typically you would expect EL Nino's to develop as the easterlies weaken (or reverse in strong events) the WHWP spreads east...however, EL Nino events as of late have had a tendency to develop in the central Pacific.

WTF...NWS pages have been very odd lately

That would be welcomed

With my luck a 592-dm ridge will become parked over the central U.S.

Hoping for an April of 2002. Hoping to get the tanning started early...last summer I was down to an SPF 8...I had a pretty cute glaze of tan going...very nice and symmetrical all over the body.

Do you have any early thoughts on the spring and Plains severe season? I sure hope the final week of May and first week of June will be active out there otherwise I may have a bit of a meltdown. I'll also melt even more if I go there and something big happens here.

Bring it

June 5, 2007. That was a fun day. It was a Tuesday. I was at work and this is where my memory is faded but I remember checking something...possibly on a phone but I didn't have a phone at the time but there were I think tornado warnings very nearby. I remember going home and getting onto the computer and there were supercells firing off...like classic supercells. The storm structures were amazing...never seen anything like it (up until that time). I think I may even have a picture of the satellite from that day. What I recall happening was llvl winds backed around the pre-frontal trough as it was coming through and the shear became highly favorable for supercells. Everything also started on the earlier side (late morning). I wonder if it held off a few hours longer if it would have been a bigger event.

Winter is over...know it, accept it, embrace it. It's time to move on...making up fantasies of about how things can change isn't going to make it a reality. Just think summer thoughts...hot tubs, sun tanning, sexy cumulus growing in the sky, thunder, lightning, hail...ahhhhh that's better

I think it's an encouraging sign to see it back to high amplitude now...assuming with each new set of runs the pieces are being sampled better...a hedge in this direction is excellent news. The only question is will this be consistent through overnight guidance. If the flip-flopping continues then it's really anyone's guess as to what transpires b/c the end result will be too close for comfort (in terms of having to issue forecasts with leadtime) and could go either way.

yeah that's a major eye opening change. You don't usually see changes that significant at this range.

cue James with a 50 sentence long post about how if the storm tracks over the Gulf Stream that is an extremely likely solution with as much as 12-18'' possible at the Cape with wind gusts over 80 mph b/c 500mb winds at the base of the trough approach 100 mph

We're still at the stage where sfc reflection isn't all that important...the surface reflection is going to be dependent on the evolution of the features at H5...point is if H5 continues with these improvements...it will reflect at the sfc. Seeing the major differences in the evolution of the northern stream is extremely encouraging.

God that's super close...close enough to where this storm can't be completely tossed...hopefully this is the beginning of something and this idea continues through 12z tomorrow...otherwise this could become a complete forecast disaster...even if this signal remains constant through tomorrow's runs...it's still not enough to totally discount it but not really defined enough to make a distinct forecast.

That record breaking jet streak is gone on today's GFS Only see like 140-145 knots

Deep Thunder?

sounds to me like you're the doctor...and doing the exam wrong

Some good news... the GFS is now into mid-February at the end of it's run...so in about 15-days it will be into March and then there will only be ONE FULL MONTH to go in the model world until May!!!

I should have been clearer...I was referring to the idea that phasing is harder. I've always wondered something about the Coriolis forcing and there is another equation or two (think one of them is the vorticity equation) but when you do scale analysis you "negate" terms which have a larger scale of magnitude b/c it is said that term is "negligible"...I wonder if even know its negligible if it actually still holds some degree of importance and perhaps if incorporated into these equations would maybe help with accuracy.

Wow that's a substantial difference..this northern stream is really giving the models a workout

If only more were as level headed as you