weatherwiz

decomposing chicken poop

We should see general t'storm line get into parts of New England with the new D2 I would think

This is something I'm trying to read up on and learn more about. What are good signals to focus on for this process? Is it escalated or driven by series of strong s/w's crashing into the vortex and strong heat flux transport from the tropics?

If there is one thing that seems to be going for next weekend it's the evolution of the pattern across the eastern PAC into the western U.S. The signal is there for not only somewhat substantial ridging across the western U.S. but the structure of the ridge doesn't look bad...would favor deep troughing in the east and they key here is where the trough axis becomes positioned. Even looks like some very weak but noticeable ridging (or at least higher heights) poking into the Arctic. As long as models aren't very off with the development of the ridge to the west we're in a good spot. As far as any worries about the airmass...as long as the track is off-shore the majority of the region should be fine. Looking at 850 temp anomalies can be very misleading given the time of year we're in...sure they may be above-average but we're still talking about -10C's 850's in southeast Canada.

I'll take...wish the MUCAPE was higher...but 17 J/KG of MLCAPE in January

the Euro is sooooooooo close with getting convection into here ughhhhh come on big boy

it is if you don't understand it

that's a good point...but yikes thats a bit of money

They should be banned from model output.

I bet haha. Much easier and more fun

Astros may be calling you for their managerial vacancy

That sounds pretty exciting! I'm actually strongly considering pursuing masters in the fall...doing the online route at Mississippi State. Some of the classes offered look like a ton of fun

nahhhh I'm threaded out from the May 1 thread

That threat is the perfect way to kick off a February discussion thread...

couldn't ask for a more perfect H7 or H85 track. *sigh* why you gotta be so far out

and the lightning...can't have thunder without the lightning

Could see grauple showers on the backside Sunday...grauple mixed with snow

everybody is getting pregnant these days

Euro still shoots some sfc-based CAPE into southern New England!!!

I wonder why when we seem to get inside a certain time frame we see these major flips...it certainly doesn't happen every time but it always seems like we get inside this magic number and poof...a complete 180 happens. Is it perhaps that everything is being sampled better? Perhaps its a parameterization function (outside of a certain time range doesn't the parameterization schemes change?)? Or maybe its a type of bias resulting from the ensemble mean smoothing key features just a bit too much?

climo

Going to have to start looking into how the pattern is going to be come spring. I sure hope it's one that favors active severe wx in the Plains...if I go to OK and nothing happens I'm going to be a bit upset.

wow that's pretty nice! One hobby I want to get into is photography...I can't wait until the summer when we get the early sunrises and I get to watch the sun rise going into work...epic. I'm going to get a dash-cam too (mainly for storm chasing) but use it on mornings the sun rise will be epic.

When it's consistent for 3-4+ days then it can be considered a potential true change

Well folks we are now under 100 days!!! 99 days to go!!!! 99 calendar days to go 99 calendar days to go you rip a date down then its one less day to go!!!!