weatherwiz

the rapid RI is probably hindering the overall hail/tornado potential. Upscale growth will be very quick. Radar watching will be fun. Storms probably going from a TCU to 55K monsters in minutes lol

maybe LCL's are too high but I was shocked they didn't mention risk for a strong tornado very early on in the game...perhaps just a small window too b/c everything will become linear quickly but the ingredients are there that should a discrete cell take off it could go nuts. Thinking we see a 4'' hail report today

same. MLCAPE too getting to 4000-5000 J...that's ridiculous. Derecho composite already at a 10 too.

DERECHO!!!

Sunday certainly looks more humid with a deeper plume of moisture moving in. Saturday dews could drop into the mid-to-upper 50's...lower 60's along the coast and lower 70's in Kevin's backyard

If this doesn't pan out then I am banning myself. It is now almost August and it's been CRAP. It's been absolute crap and I don't want to hear any arguments stating otherwise. This summer is pure trash and it needs to be recognized as so. This is not an appropriate summer and this better never, ever happen again. It's just been pathetic. Anyways let's try again Wednesday and/or Thursday. Right now, Thursday perhaps may have the better potential. This is when stronger forcing associated with a shortwave trough traversing the U.S./Canadian border digs towards the Northeast. This feature looks to be associated with a modest belt of 30-40 knots of shear at 500mb. This isn't overly impressive, however, with over 30 knots of shear at 700mb this should be enough to generate enough bulk shear for organized convective potential. At the surface, strong moisture pooling ahead of an approaching cold front should crank dewpoints well into the 70's. While mid-level lapse rates will be fairly poor (OF COURSE) 70's dews combined with surface temperatures into the 80's should contribute to enough instability (when combined with the shear) to warrant organized line segments with the potential to embedded areas of damaging winds and perhaps a few wet microbursts. We're nearing turn 3 and soon heading towards turn 4. Ridiculous

The best day to combine heat/dews would like be Monday...should see better moisture pooling ahead of the "front" with 850 dews ~15-16C. Question is how does cloud cover/convective potential screw temp potential?

I am so grateful CT continues to do so excellent.

Monday maybe another NNE special? Depending on cloud/convective potential but looks like there is greater convective potential down this way.

I believe it. Moisture is rather shallow and 850 dews aren't anything to write home about so once we crank the mixing up goes the temperatures and down goes the dews

Is this just to much to ask for

One thing I would really love to do is start studying more (reading research papers, finding datasets to do analyses, etc) about the role/significance on the lower stratosphere/upper troposphere and the overall significance/impact this plays on the progression of the pattern moving through the Northern Hemisphere winter. I strongly feel this interaction plays a significant role...moreso than ENSO. One example would be the QBO and it's structure and how it is behaving moving through the fall and winter. Like right now it appears that we are in an upward propagating easterly phase (I think) and if that were to continue into the winter that would certainly increase the prospects for a better Arctic. If we can correlate that to a weak La Nina (this is just a basic look...obviously would want to get into the placement of the coldest anomalies) that would certainly increase prospects for us this winter.

Wednesday looks intriguing but we're going to be dealing with a crappy mlvl lapse rate situation but at least we look to have decent shear with perhaps MLCAPE 1500-2000 J if we maximize heating. I suppose if we can really muster dews in the 73-75 range that can compensate for the crappy lapse rates a bit. Would be great to see a nice squall line blow through.

from experience...that's exactly what is needed

The beaches thing is ridiculous. Was trying to go camping this weekend but seems like many places are all booked. Just have to lay in the yard naked I guess

It's time to put the checkered flag to summer. This garbage is almost summer. Fake summer...not real

They should do a movie about fakenadoes in Tolland

We usually (well can) start those days with dews around/above 70 but then strong mixing results in drier air being mixed to the sfc

One last attempt before bridge jumping commences

Weren't the warmest anomalies in region 4? Which I mean technically isn't region 4 more into the region where the WHWP will propagate into? I know how the WHWP propagates can influence ENSO (particularly Nino) but I don't recall the global pattern being very "Nino like" last winter.

I completely agree with this. And this is a huge challenge b/c we aren't really sure how much of an impact a warming climate is having on global oscillations and ENSO....the research indicates there is impact but what is the outcome of these impacts? I also agree...there is tremendous value on the monthly or seasonal calculations and averages and for reasons just like you stated...longer, seasonal lead times. However, I wish there was also more research out there which kinda broke these down to smaller time-scale intervals. I know I've said this numerous times but I wish there were like weekly or bi-weekly calculations for the the oscillations. I would love to do this b/c the data needed to do so is available, however, I have zero clue on how to even do this and my math skills are too weak. I also know that at the end of the day it's the structure/placement of the anomalies which hold more weight than a raw number but that doesn't mean there is not value within a raw number. Using a raw value with a map showing structure/anomaly strengthens any potential knowledge gained.

I just wonder how much of a signal or how much of a factor ENSO just plays anymore (obviously in a strong or super-strong event it's going to heavily influence the global configuration) but it just seems the correlations with ENSO just aren't that strong anymore. Now perhaps what could be happening is as the data set continues to expand and we're seeing more variations within the same type of signal regime but ENSO events of late don't seem to be behaving like similar ENSO events of the past. ENSO gets a significant chunk of attention when it comes to seasonal forecasting (especially for the northern hemisphere winter) but I seriously wonder if the main driver is the stratosphere and the stratosphere-troposphere interaction. Now perhaps we're just in a cycle where the PV and it's evolution (both SPV and TPV) has so much weight on the evolution of the northern hemisphere pattern. In terms of the NAO though, I was doing a little bit looking last summer and one thing that intrigued me with a potential indication of how the NAO may evolve or behave moving into the winter was zonal wind anomalies within the Arctic and around Greenland. I don't remember off hand the signal but I want to say easterly (which would make most sense) zonal wind anomalies around the Arctic/Greenland in the fall seemed to correlate to more of a -NAO potential moving into winter. The biggest problem with indices such as the NAO/AO though is there is too much emphasis on the monthly/seasonal value. Perhaps that helps with a long-term pattern configuration, however, it's the variations and transitions on the shorter-term which play a significant role in sensible weather changes...same with the EPO/PNA as well.

Nice touch, Mr. Trump

Kinda random but I've been thinking about this lately. There were some articles on this a few months ago but haven't seen anything since but I'm interested in your opinion. Do you think a decrease in flights has had any impact on the performance on forecast models and if so, how significant of an impact is it?