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weatherwiz

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by weatherwiz

  1. weatherwiz
    oh great COD stopped working
  2. weatherwiz
    0z HRRR looking rather nasty.
  3. weatherwiz
    Bust in the TOR department but there were several microbursts. Lapse rates were forecast to be pretty good actually but AM crap sort of weakened them. Never did generate a good amount of MLCAPE and shear was just too much for the updrafts and that hurt convection from becoming deep
  4. weatherwiz
    yeah that it does
  5. weatherwiz
    That is super scary...that much CAPE with over 400 m2s2 of helicity. Nothing good can come from that
  6. weatherwiz
    Waterbury, CT on the NAM 4 PM tomorrow
  7. weatherwiz
    I honestly don't know if the probs were even that high then. maybe 45 but I can't recall seeing a 60 but who knows...memory fading
  8. weatherwiz
    I think this composite overdoes things at times but I mean...the ingredients are there and like you said, where warm front settles it's probably going to be big. Also noting that 18z is kinda focusing the boundary a bit more SW...also noting that forecast soundings actually back the llvl winds a bit (and not in the good way)
  9. weatherwiz
    I don't recall ever seeing a 60 up this way...though it may have happened with 05/15/2018. If the damaging wind signal becomes widespread I think we could see a moderate risk.
  10. weatherwiz
    probabilistic probability of a significant tornado (EF2+) based on a combination of forecast mixed-layer CAPE, mixed-layer LCL height, 0-1km helicity, and bulk shear
  11. weatherwiz
    OH MY GOD
  12. weatherwiz
    you know me too well
  13. weatherwiz
    and that's not far from where I work! That could be perfect
  14. weatherwiz
    Wow...15-20 foot storm surge now forecast across parts of TX/LA coast...holy ****
  15. weatherwiz
    With these updrafts tomorrow...I want some stratosphere penetration.
  16. weatherwiz
    Debating if I want to do BDL tomorrow or go towards SW CT. Just tough to find good areas with wide open views down there. Could do Newtown...there's a few spots I know. Danbury is a no-no given the COVID spike.
  17. weatherwiz
    I don't argue that...was more of just throwing out a thought more than anything.
  18. weatherwiz
    I recall somewhat of a similar setup...forget there year but it was early 2010's. I think there was an EF-2 or even EF-3 around the Albany area which occurred with a supercell on the northern fringe of the warm front and they only had temperatures in the 60's. It was a crazy gradient with temps in PA near 90 and dews around 70. I remember chasing that day with my friend and we had gone into PA. Even though the temps were rather chilly the storm was drawing inflow from the southwest where instability was large
  19. weatherwiz
    Might actually be a setup where you may want to be on the northern fringe of the warm front. That's where you'l not only maximize the shear but SR inflow may actually be from the warm sector so instability is still being utilized.
  20. weatherwiz
    Remember like a month ago I said we'd be watching the Bruins chasing the Stanley Cup and tracking severe weather outbreak hahahahaha.
  21. weatherwiz
    uhhhhhhh
  22. weatherwiz
    I think it was still a slight...for moderate I think you needed 45% wind (or 30% hatched)...I think hail too but maybe it was 30% for hail and 10% for TOR. But given this is a day 2 outlook b/c the 30% wind is hatched that may have qualified for a moderate...I forget.
  23. weatherwiz
    I should be able to "chase" tomorrow...by chasing I mean sit at BDL (that's my goal). Or maybe go towards SW CT depending on how it looks. But I don't think I'll be going out-of-state with all the quarantine guidelines in place...although NY and MA aren't on the list but still.
  24. weatherwiz
    PIN PIN PIN PIN
  25. weatherwiz
    I am not the *biggest* fan of this product...I think it places too much emphasis on shear (especially in high shear/low CAPE setups) but values of 30-45 are pretty damn impressive for up here
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