weatherwiz

Sure there are surface features (convection, double-barrel low structure) but these are so complex and it's extremely difficult to know if these will materialize or not. There are some instances they do and other instances they don't (even when you have the model agreement).

Really don't see any reason to deviate from that yet. Obviously there were some concerns thrown in but I stated my reasonings for my map.

We continue to see slight improvements (across all models) with the main features aloft. That continues, at this time, to be the most important aspect overall. While it would be great to see these changes reflected within the surface, that is secondary at this point. If these improvements aloft continue I will bet anything all the models end up converging on a more westward track and we'll see heavier QPF thrown more west than what some models indicate. Just given what we're seeing aloft, IMO the chances of more west are much greater than more east.

Not that far

looks like there were some improvements. At any rate, liking how/where H7 is starting to close off...perhaps not in the sense of verbatim but continued improvements aloft would mean very favorable develops and track of H7

The NAM sometimes sniffs these big ones out. given alot of the processes involved her with mesoscale banding and what not...I buy the NAM

Bruins game and it was the night before my last final exam before graduating and I told myself I was retiring from 40's (unless the Bruins were playing game 7 in the Stanley Cup...of course they did against the Blues the following year but I went to the bar to watch). This may be a special occasion though

I haven't had a 40 since Wednesday, December 12, 2018. I was strongly considering one for Saturday during the storm.

0% chance we see blizzard watches

DBZ approaching or slightly over 30...that's ridiculous rates

Good lord. This is ridiculous. Can't wait to mouthwater over bufkit

Regardless of the dual low a good chunk of the region would get some CCB goods. The CCB too may be quite wide

yeah there's going to be potential for some areas to get 1-3'' well before the storm. some decent llvl lift well ahead

If a post could ever be pinned, this would be the one.

The SREF plumes? They're alright...just a good way to quickly (and easily) illustrate spread.

Even at BOS you have a high spread

Interesting to note the number of members on the very high end here. Mean being skewed by members which probably have very close to 0''. This just goes to show the degree of spread which continues to exist:

The GFS is to coastals as the Mets are to baseball

Yeah it's been said but truth of the matter is we've really been in the time period where differences are going to occur. It's not highly common to see model-to-model consistency or even run-to-run consistency 4-5 days or sometimes even as little as 3 days out. I think some are just a bit overanxious. If one just looks at SLP/QPF alone these differences and inconsistencies seem much worse than they really are. As stated several times, very subtle differences between the key features in the mid-levels will have big implications at the surface. The changes needed to get a major storm for the majority of the region are very small. In fact, there is probably a higher chance the majority see a major storm then the majority not seeing a major storm. The biggest takeaways (even with yesterday's runs) is each subsequent and model has had improvements with the key features...whether or not that translated down to the surface is not very important at the time range (but will get more important today). It's all good and fun b/c it's discussion but we all have the tendency to focus too much on certain details in time frames we really shouldn't be.

blowing snow and snow amount. flooding isn't incorporated into this. Snow Amount, Snow load, blowing snow, ground blizzard, flash freeze, and ice accumulation

Got some extreme on the WSSI

Today's 12z runs should steer us in a direction which will be geared towards the outcome. Even if we continue to see some divergence I think we'll be able to piece together which way to hedge.

Not even sure what to make of this run. The upper-level look was pretty ugly. Guess just have to wait and see what the GEFS show. If the mean is east or there is more east members that might give some merit to this run but if mean is west or more west members this can maybe be tossed.

My gut says as we get closer we'll see the NAM reflect these changes aloft at the surface. The most important thing we want to continue seeing are changes (in the positive direction) aloft. The confluence discussed though is something that needs to be considered too.

Just the upper-levels alone...you're going to have a rapid blossoming of precipitation well west