weatherwiz

Anyone know what's up with this site? Hasn't worked in a while

Tuesday could be a chase day across Pennsylvania but I am busy. Pretty nice EML with warm front nearby and good shear with approaching s/w. Heights look kinda neutral but could see a few warm front riders.

I wasn't referring to through now...meant more going through May and into June. Overall it has been a pretty nice spring...plenty of pleasant days mixed with some crap days. Consistency would be nice but that shouldn't be expected in early spring. But as we go through May and into June you would expect the pleasant days to become more consistent. And that brings to your point about last year...May going into June was pretty crappy (especially SNE) but we virtually went from that to 90's/humidity in a snap.

We're probably going to go from crap to toilet paper sticking weather and then never look back

yeah looks like we may get some showers in here during the afternoon at some point...actually looking a bit closer we may lose Sunday being nice for the most part. At least we push +14C to +15C at 925 and +8C at 850 so we definitely will get into the 60's and if we can get sun early on a few spots should get into the lower 70's.

May showers bring June severe

what do you think of coastal low potential end of next week?

Sunday looks like it could be fairly warm..at least down this way

The past 3-days was really a combination of synoptic/convective. The showers Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning was warm front driven (synoptic lift) while the area of showers/thunder which approached later Wednesday was a combination of convective processes and synoptic lift from the warm front which was still positioned nearby...but this was definitely more convectively driven as the bulk occurred during the daylight hours with weakening through the evening. Yesterday was pretty synoptically dominant.

Well looks like there will be plenty of chances for some showers and heavier downpours the first week of May. Both Euro/GFS even hinting at a coastal low developing...maybe even some flakes up north. Still kinda intrigued for some severe potential but looks like best threat probably across PA into maybe parts of NJ or just south.

ahhh this is it...I thought I saw something where he defined what he was talking about...can I stand corrected for standing corrected?

hmmm actually I think I stand corrected...the model maps posted were valid through Friday/Saturday and the discussion went from there.

That was about WEDNESDAY...not Thursday. Kevin absolutely said nothing about today being convective. People need to go back and re-read the exchange and convo about that...it's 10000% obvious he was talking about Wednesday.

Kevin said Wednesday being convective...he wasn't talking about today

Too be fair I think Kevin was only referring to Wednesday in terms of convection...not today/tonight

MOS sucks...it's a complete piece of garbage. I have been using NBM more and even that seems to be kinda trash. Don't get me wrong...MOS/NBM are very good in some areas and at some locations but it's trash...particularly across the center of the country and the Northeast...especially in certain pattern types. I know MOS does not handle anomalous patterns well or seasons of transition but it's a complete embarrassment. I have no clue how some can just rip/read MOS and be happy at the end of the day.

Question on something. From my understanding I think MOS doesn't record sky cover above like 12,000 feet. Does NBM do so?

I'm pretty much the same way...I'd have to probably be on my death bed.

Wow no May discussion thread yet? Well what better way to kick it off by welcoming everyone to severe season! Actually may have a severe threat on Tuesday...particularly western sections.

I knew someone who helped someone clean out their attic when their parents or grandparents died and came across a ton of old baseball cards...like from the 30's-60's. They ended up just giving the cards away not knowing that many in there were worth tens of thousands of dollars. oops

Actually looks like there could be some pretty intense snow squalls tomorrow night...actually wouldn't even be surprised to see some areas of accumulation possible (Green Mountains into the Berkshires, ORH hills, Hills of CT). Could even see some decent LES across parts of NY. Maybe thunder too...pretty unstable aloft

May see scattered power outages tomorrow...pretty long duration period of high winds too.

Exactly...this is why structure and placement of the anomalies are way more important than an index itself. That's why you can't just make a (medium-long range) forecast just based on the state of an index or ENSO alone. For example, here is a composite of DJF temperature anomalies for La Nina's. The last image below gives you an "average" of them all...but sometimes going just based on average can be extremely misleading.

Well pretty much all better today. Actually felt nearly 100% by yesterday evening outside of just being tired but I did sleep pretty well. In terms of the side effects it was pretty much everything I expected based on the information I gathered from folks. Side effects kicking in about 12-hours later with side effects lasting around 12-hours and a full-day of fatigue. I am very glad I asked as many people as possible what they experienced after getting their second shot because I think preparing myself made going through it that much easier.