weatherwiz

Well here's the 18z ALB sounding...looks like perhaps would be some potential for splitting supercells that way

Heights also been kinda neutral here...don't fall until later. The idea of these pre-squall line supercells is not looking good

Tough to tell but looks like a sea breeze racing north through CT

Quite a bit of MLCIN in those areas and even through E CT

~12:30

Yup! pushing on the doorstep now

Those aren't supercells. They're just crap to only get people excited.

I bet by next update they retract the slight quite a bit. My guess is they have it for the potential for discrete ahead of the main line but meh. Still looks like there will be a nice line into western MA and perhaps NW CT with some damaging wind gusts.

yup...I can see that now. I did actually notice that and wondered but didn't give it a ton of thought.

It really just boggles my mind...is the art of weather forecasting becoming just lazy now? I understand using a specific graphic to illustrate a point...but that should be it...too illustrate, not make a claim. For example, these UD helicity maps are getting tossed around left and right and the tone of it is "tornado potential exists here" "watch for tornadoes"...sure, yeah that may be true...but there is alot more it then that. I mean when it comes to today I've seen/heard people referencing 5/15/18...b/c it's the same date...that's just irresponsible.

IDK...I'm not seeing much support for dews into the 60's later

You know...you were totally right a few months back when you said the severe weenies posting severe graphics were just as bad as the snow maps. Now we're starting to see convective forecasts be completely blown out of the water and every setup could be "big". Folks trying to use the potential hazard type box on the sHARPpy soundings, UD helicity plots, and STP plots to say there is big potential for severe. ahhhhhhh

Monday could feature some flash flooding concerns

hmm interesting. The balloon launch from ALB yields a crappy 700-500 lapse rate, however, mesoanalysis paints a different picture

I can see a few cells trying to pop but struggling to strengthen

Yeah he is very knowledgeable...always appreciate reading his input on things. Lays things out very well.

OMG that is funny LOL

In all honesty though That is actually a good thread going on (pretty sure you got this from the SNE wx chase group or whatever it's called?)...person seemed to be looking to gain some knowledge!

Even if we saw discrete ahead of the main line or stuff develop mid-afternoon I don’t think they do much. There just isn’t enough support. If CAPE was much higher sure...that could be enough perhaps but lack of a trigger and neutral to rising heights isn’t going to cut it.

What the hell is with some people’s obsession in comparing the SPC risk area from 5/15/18 to tomorrow???? Like WTF??? Who gives a shit how similar the areas look...wtf does that have to do with anything??? Absolutely fooking ridiculous.

Could even trim the slight risk way back

Kiss the enhanced risk goodbye

The 18z looked like garbage. Outside of some scattered pockets of wind damage and some hail I think most will be crying bust tomorrow night b/c they had way too high expectations.

I'm thinking 7-11 I agree these things usually speed up on timing but in those instance we have a pre-frontal trough driving the convection.

faster timing? Don't think the faster timing idea happens. This convection is all actually looking to be associated with the cold front itself. Which is actually a little...uncommon (maybe not the right word) but don't even see much of a pre-frontal trough signal which is what usually sparks off the convection anyways. The cold front doesn't come close to us until late evening. We are going to see weakening llvl lapse rates due to loss of heating and the overall look to me doesn't really scream enough wind damage for the enhanced risk.