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Everything posted by weatherwiz
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Severe Weather Threat Week...so many threats!!!
weatherwiz replied to weatherwiz's topic in New England
Agreed...seems like N of the Pike event. Moreso like New Hampshire into Maine. -
Severe Weather Threat Week...so many threats!!!
weatherwiz replied to weatherwiz's topic in New England
This is probably more of a NNE event. This actually kind of sucks because there looks to be a remnant EML or plume of steeper lapse rates which moves overhead tomorrow. But bulk shear looks to weaken with the main shortwave well into southeast Canada so heights rise. This could be a pretty decent wind event though for NNE. I wouldn't be surprised to see an enhanced risk at some point. -
If I moved everything would just shift east.
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Why is it so fooking hard to get an EML in here. This is crab grass damn ridiculous. Just watching them fizzle out like the Maple Leafs in May. ughhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh
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Severe Weather Threat Week...so many threats!!!
weatherwiz replied to weatherwiz's topic in New England
Probably be a NNE ordeal -
Severe Weather Threat Week...so many threats!!!
weatherwiz replied to weatherwiz's topic in New England
I think those are quite high. Maybe by like 30% -
Severe Weather Threat Week...so many threats!!!
weatherwiz replied to weatherwiz's topic in New England
Those are the ones you want to watch out for. -
How does heat like that happen there?
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Severe Weather Threat Week...so many threats!!!
weatherwiz replied to weatherwiz's topic in New England
Starting to look at it in a bit more detail but yeah shear isn't anything crazy...it's adequate (and heck...sometimes that is better than overwhelming shear lol). But one thing that sort of sticks out to me is heights look to remain neutral or rise slightly through the day? The main shortwave lifts ENE and is pretty far into Canada. Never good for us -
Severe Weather Threat Week...so many threats!!!
weatherwiz replied to weatherwiz's topic in New England
ehhh I think there needs to be expectations with these type of setups and just convection in general. Due to the nature of convection and processes involved I don't think you can ever classify severe events as a bust if they don't pan out (perhaps with exception of what the SPC designates as a high risk setup). In this setup (and similar set ups) the risk for severe weather is low. The risk for a widespread severe weather event is as close to zero as you can get without saying zero. You're really only tracking and looking for the potential of one or two cells which are going to become mature enough to utilize all the ingredients. -
Today is why “drought” talk in SNE is LOL.
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Severe Weather Threat Week...so many threats!!!
weatherwiz replied to weatherwiz's topic in New England
I actually think I can smell the Sun -
Severe Weather Threat Week...so many threats!!!
weatherwiz replied to weatherwiz's topic in New England
Mesoscale Discussion 1511 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 PM CDT Mon Jul 18 2022 Areas affected...portions of northern VA...MD...DE...eastern PA...NJ...southern NY into western MA/CT Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 473... Valid 182032Z - 182200Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 473 continues. SUMMARY...Damaging gusts will remain the main hazard across severe thunderstorm watch 473. DISCUSSION...Widely scattered thunderstorms continue along the I-95 corridor this afternoon from near Washington D.C. to the NYC vicinity. Some of these storms have produced near-severe measured wind gusts as well as sporadic wind damage. This activity will continue to pose a threat for damaging gusts the next few hours. Occasional weak rotation has been noted at times as well, especially with storms further north across NJ/NY where low-level shear remains stronger compared to further south. Some modest airmass recovery has been noted to the north of WW 473 toward Albany, NY. Cloud breaks have allowed temperatures to warm into the mid/upper 70s and MLCAPE values around 500-750 J/kg are noted. Visible satellite imagery indicates some agitated CU beneath broken upper level clouds. As large-scale ascent continues to increase and a prefrontal trough shifts eastward through late afternoon/early evening, additional strong to severe convection may develop from eastern PA into NJ and southern NY. If additional convection develops and becomes organized further north, a watch expansion may be needed across parts of the Albany CWA. ..Leitman.. 07/18/2022 -
Severe Weather Threat Week...so many threats!!!
weatherwiz replied to weatherwiz's topic in New England
It's the brightest it's been all day. Maybe some late PM sun to give a boost. It's like David Ortiz coming to bat in the bottom of the 9th with the bases loaded, down 3 -
Severe Weather Threat Week...so many threats!!!
weatherwiz replied to weatherwiz's topic in New England
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/ -
Severe Weather Threat Week...so many threats!!!
weatherwiz replied to weatherwiz's topic in New England
This thing is screwing everything up -
Severe Weather Threat Week...so many threats!!!
weatherwiz replied to weatherwiz's topic in New England
Actually some of these signatures appear more divergent rather than rotation -
Severe Weather Threat Week...so many threats!!!
weatherwiz replied to weatherwiz's topic in New England
Flooding may be the biggest risk in southeast NY into Fairfield County... -
Severe Weather Threat Week...so many threats!!!
weatherwiz replied to weatherwiz's topic in New England
Yeah I don't think it's really possible to get sufficient clearing in these type of setups. The only way really is when there is an advecting EML offering a stout cap and sufficient drying aloft. Agreed...conditions are still favorable for severe. This isn't going to be a widespread severe event and is a setup that typically produces widespread severe. It's all usually about whether one or two cells can maximize everything that atmosphere has to offer. -
Severe Weather Threat Week...so many threats!!!
weatherwiz replied to weatherwiz's topic in New England
Friend down in NJ said it was wild...just loud cracks one after another -
Severe Weather Threat Week...so many threats!!!
weatherwiz replied to weatherwiz's topic in New England
ahhh...no the Storm Prediction Center is responsible for issuing the watches. The local offices take care of warnings. Local offices though do get input as to what type of watch (severe vs. tornado). -
Severe Weather Threat Week...so many threats!!!
weatherwiz replied to weatherwiz's topic in New England
We usually see some watches of that size each summer. Even sometimes see them stretch as far north as Maine, however, I think it's more typical to see separate watches as opposed to one giant watch box. -
Severe Weather Threat Week...so many threats!!!
weatherwiz replied to weatherwiz's topic in New England
Clouds and the developing area of rain really killing things...then we have that cluster that developed in northwest New Jersey which will be moving into western Connecticut within a few hours. It's a nice looking cluster with tons of lightning) but it's probably at it's maximum intensity. Maybe some localized influences can work to tighten any rotation but the clouds/precip are yielding really crappy low-level lapse rates. Steeper low-level lapse rates would have gone a long way in additional parcel acceleration and yielded better (not necessarily in terms of numbers) low-level CAPE...better in the sense of it could be utilized more efficiently to assist with tightening couplets. -
Severe Weather Threat Week...so many threats!!!
weatherwiz replied to weatherwiz's topic in New England
Everything has some broad rotation but just lacking sufficient instability to strengthen anything. -
Severe Weather Threat Week...so many threats!!!
weatherwiz replied to weatherwiz's topic in New England
Severe watch coming soon...unless local offices argue for a TOR Mesoscale Discussion 1508 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CDT Mon Jul 18 2022 Areas affected...parts of far northern VA...MD...eastern PA...northern DE...NJ...southern NY...western MA and CT Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 181618Z - 181815Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes are possible this afternoon across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into southwest New England. The severe threat is expected to increase over the next couple of hours, and a watch will likely be needed for portions of the region. DISCUSSION...Areas of clearing from northern VA into eastern PA/NJ have allowed temperatures to warm into the 80s at midday. This has allowed weak to moderate destabilization to occur amid 70s surface dewpoints. Further north into the Hudson Valley and southwestern New England, thicker cloud cover and showers are keeping temperatures in the low/mid 70s and limiting stronger destabilization. However, some clearing across these areas through the afternoon should allow for modest heating and at least weak destabilization later today. Latest visible satellite indicates a cluster of vertically developing CU near the PA/NJ border as of 16z. Latest radar trends are increasing with this activity as well. This convection is developing along an axis of greater instability extending from the northern Chesapeake Bay toward northern NJ. Thunderstorms are expected to gradually increase across this area over the next couple of hours. Moderate vertical shear will support organized clusters and semi-discrete supercell structures capable of damaging gusts. Stronger low-level shear and more favorably curved hodographs will reside from northeast PA/northern NJ toward the lower Hudson Valley. Latest VWP data from KBMG and KENX show enlarged low-level hodographs with 0-1 km SRH values greater than 300 m2/s2. However, weaker instability in conjunction with poor lapse rates may limit intensity/longevity of any stronger cells across this area. Nevertheless, any sustained convection will pose a risk for a couple of tornadoes. Given current trends, a watch will likely be needed in the next 1-2 hours. ..Leitman/Hart.. 07/18/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...