weatherwiz

We have seen many times in the past where models like the HRRR/RAP are first to pick up on convective-robbery so seeing those models with that sort of indication is certainly something that should be noted. At this point it's predominately nowcast and watching how the storm evolves over the next several hours (keeping in mind what the HRRR/RAP are advertising). One positive though is the degree of convection doesn't appear to be rather robust or substantive so it's quite possible the HRRR/RAP could be putting a bit too much emphasis on it's robbery of moisture. Favorable dynamics aloft too should provide good large-scale lift so hopefully that works to our favor.

18z GFS bufkit at BDL. Illustrates beautifully what kinda of ratios may be able to be maximized

Some pretty impressive signaling on the guidance since last night for Connecticut. There's still a few caveats but getting a bit hard to ignore some of the signals favoring heavy banding traversing much of the state.

Somewhere around BDL 9z Friday. It's going to be dumping and thumping

maybe even some thundersnow across far SE MA

That's going to be a huge dump of snow for many in a short amount of time. That's about as perfectly aligned fronto as you could ask to get a good chunk of MA/CT into heavy snow. Someone will definitely touch 2''/HR rates. Sounding in NE CT. Beautiful

Fronto for all. Rates easily 1.5''/hour in that. Suppose could even approach 2''/hour locally. Supported on some bufkit profiles with about 20 units of omega tapping into the DGZ.

Thanks...getting there. It's mostly fatigue that's the killer. I think where we sit though. Think the heaviest banding by end up actually a bit farther NW than some indications. It just sucks this thing is moving so quickly...would probably see a max zone upwards of around 10-12'' given the fluff factor. Ratios should be quite good (13-15:1)

Been out of the loop dealing with COVID the past week and just having enough energy to work but seeing the recent trends since overnight runs have given me a boost of energy!!! I was initially a bit meh yesterday afternoon for Connecticut (though didn't completely right anything off yet). Very excited with the 12z runs this morning. Seeing stuff like this makes me super happy and excited. Sorry to probably bring up old news but trying to get back into the swing of things again

ughhh I'm so sorry to hear this My thoughts and prayers are with you and your family.

Hoping to get COVID tested tomorrow. Pretty sure I have it. I just scheduled my booster shot too but had to wait until January 11

Roads weren’t terrible going from Springfield to Chicopee. Side roads were a little iffy but main roads and highway were fine.

Quite the glazing (at least) of ice in Springfield. Roads look like crap. Hoping we go above freezing before having to head out

I think we actually do have those suckers here but they’re not common. Confined to like barnes and horse stable places. My uncle lived at one in Southington for several years as he did maintenance and took care of all the horses and he would see them from time to time

After seeing a wolf spider (at least I think it’s a wolf spider. I’m hoping it’s not like a black widow. We don’t have those here but with freaking climate change who knows for sure) in my bathroom in December, I take back EVERYTHING I’ve ever said about wanting warm winters. I want cold…historic cold…long-duration cold. COLD COLD COLD. Need the cold to kill them off or make them flock back south. THERW SHOULD NOT BE A WOLF SPIDER IN DECEMBER. Or anytime of the year. We need a long stretch of historic cold and we need it now and every winter. From November to March…historic cold.

ehhh I'll let BDL measure. I don't really have an ideal measuring spot.

Probably will go out and measure between 9:42-9:47

Not sure how much outside but everything is white! Would have to estimate between 1-2''.

Disappointed...when I first started reading this I thought this was headed into the direction of a failed Christmas love story where you were running across campus knee-deep in snow trying to give your crush a good-bye kiss as she departed for semester break.

This. It really is just a guessing game as to what will transpire. Those who like cold/snow can make a justification as to why it will be cold/snowy. Those that like warm can make a justification as to why it will be warm lol. But at the end of the day confidence is any type of outcome is about as close to zero as you can get. Subtle changes within some key features = significant implications on the outcome.

meh define "suck" and what you're measuring. The biggest issue is not models themselves but how they're being interpreted, especially in the medium-to-long range. If someone is just rip-and-reading an H5 height anomaly graphic and taking it as face value they're doing themselves an injustice. And that's the issue with these graphics and how they just get tossed around and interpreted...just face value instead of doing an assessment. And assessment being just ike what Scott did above...understand how a slight fluctuation and shifts of core height anomalies can mean significant alterations to the pattern as a whole.

Hell, we may even end up with some severe threats!!!!!!!!!!

IDK what's more impressive...the degree of cold in the PAC NW next week or the degree of warmth in the mid-section of the country. May have to go with the later b/c there are strong signals 60's dews could push well into the Ohio Valley with 70's dews maybe into the Gulf Coast? I don't think there's ever been a December high risk before but I bet we could head in that direction later next week.

Great post. I think the NAO is certainly over-valued and too much emphasis gets placed on it and you can use the same reasoning and rational behind why ENSO sometimes get too much emphasis and and is over-valued. When heavy research began, there wasn't a huge data set to work with and alot of these now existing indices and teleconnections either haven't been published yet or very little was known about them to really incorporate into research. There's alot of work (older) which focuses on one-to-one comparisons... 1) ENSO vs. precipitation (rainfall, snowfall) and temperature 2) NAO vs. precipitation and temperature Hell...we've seen alot of numbers ran for the Northeast...for each climo station which shows snowfall totals during +NAO vs -NAO. At the end of the day does that really provide accurate assessment or information? I would wager not and this is because there are just way too many influences that need to be taken into account. There has been lots of research (more recent) too which continues to strongly indicate North America storminess is more of a product of PNA/Pacific mode vs. the NAO...and if you really think about it...that makes a ton of sense, The way I view it is the Pacific dictates the pattern, however, the Atlantic (or Arctic) can manipulate it.