weatherwiz

Right Certainly can't rule out some elevated storms though Saturday night

The NAM is quite the soaking. All stems from the complex which materializes later today over IA/MO. But there are some large differences between the NAM/GFS in even how that evolves later and how it progresses through the Ohio Valley tomorrow. There isn't a ton of shortwave support which would be nice too see but dynamics are pretty nice and it seems to ride the instability gradient with solid theta-e advection out ahead of it. Guess we'll see

Looks like some could see a decent little soaking tomorrow night. The NAM is most aggressive in terms of QPF, however, you have a nice strengthening llvl jet with some decent lift moving overhead. This is why it's pointless to throw around QPF forecast charts through 10-days this time of year. There are so many small nuisances and drivers of convection that pop up in the short-term. Obviously there are going to be areas which receive more rain and areas which probably see nada...that's just the nature of the beast.

NBM extended has 93 for BDL Saturday. GFS has 95. GFS bufkit indicating potential for upper 90's . Looking like a W to WSW flow too at the sfc...as long as that direction is maintained 97-98 is doable (unless we see changes of course).

Here are some useful links to check out/explore https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/help/sfcoa.html https://www.weather.gov/bmx/outreach_severeparameters https://www.weatherwx.net/wp-content/uploads/severe_weather_checklist.pdf http://bangladeshtornadoes.org/EML/emlpage.html Alot of convective forecasting comes down to trying to understand or visualize how convection will respond based on the surrounding environment. This becomes easier over time after lots of practice/experience. What also helps is doing analysis of previous events...especially higher end events to get a great visual of what ingredients are in place during those setups and then comparing to events which are smaller magnitude. Any questions on anything please ask!

Healthy looking cell NW of Rockford, NY. Thought there looked to be a brief TDS

Lots of discrete cells popping now...too bad the strongest shear isn't until later

Really tough to get a widespread significant damaging wind event with 2-6km lapse rates this weak. 0-3km lapse rates are a bit better but would like to see them even steeper

Yes I would anticipate so

For 45% damaging wind probs the wind probabilities in the watches aren't particularly high...

No problem! I feel you on the back pain...it blows. I hurt my back in 2009 (and still never had it checked out lol). I've also thrown out my back 3-4 times in the past 4 years and it's some of the worst pain I've ever had. Hope you improve soon

In a nutshell this is what you want to look for 1) Lift (cold front or pre-frontal trough for example) 2) Rich low-level moisture (sfc dewpoints > 60-65 and sufficient moisture through the lowest 5,000-7,000 feet) 3) Instability (to fuel thunderstorms) 4) Wind shear (to help with updraft strength and organization) There are plenty of links I can send along later. There are plenty of parameters which can be assessed when determining the potential for convection and severe convection. While parameters are certainly helpful to look at and can give a great idea, everything needs to be factored together. Perhaps one of the more overlooked aspects of convective forecasting involves your lift/forcing. You can have 5,000 J/KG of CAPE but if your lift/shear suck it's going to be tough to get widespread severe weather. Meanwhile, you can have 1200 J/KG and tons of shear and get significant events.

I would have also loved to see an observed sounding from OKX. Helium shortage must still be a thing I'm guessing.

Models do show >100 J 3km CAPE WOR too later on but models also rapidly begin to diminish CAPE moving through the late afternoon. May not see any discrete cells but even a broken line of storms would need to be watched for rotation in the line breaks.

agreed

We do have decent dynamics aloft so that will help compensate some for the marine taint. Severe weather chances will certainly decrease south and east across SNE. I'm still a bit shocked at the 45% wind contour. Also that area of higher probs may even be a bit too far west. Higher potential may be Hudson Valley right into Berkshire/Litchfield/Fairfield County. Still not sold though on a widespread significant damaging wind event.

Woah SPC went 45% for wind in eastern PA? Not sure if this setup is one that really favors a widespread significant damaging wind event. Would like to see much steeper low-level lapse rates, stronger llvl flow, and much higher DCAPE values.

I'm a bit surprised by the ENH tomorrow. Instability will be limited due to poor mid-level lapse rates. Wind shear will certainly be strong - especially mid-level shear which will help with storm organization and updrafts to become organized, but I don't think llvl shear is overly impressive and we'll have to see how steep llvl lapse rates can get.

Eh it’s ok. I’m on vacation from May 26-June 7 so let all the fun happen then.

Sometimes these can be fun

A strong cold front is set to move across New England late Monday. Combination of surface temperatures into the upper 70's to lower 80's and dewpoints into the lower 60's will yield modest levels of instability (MLCAPE ~1000 J/KG) with poor lapse rates limiting further instability. Aloft, a strong shortwave trough rotates across the region resulting in ample wind shear with 700mb winds approaching 40 knots and 500mb winds approaching 60 knots. As the cold front encounters the warm and humid airmass, a line of rain and thunderstorms will likely form across NY/PA and propagate southeast into New England. Strong shear will help aid in convection organized. While instability will wane with southeastward extent due to marine flow, strong dynamics aloft may help compensate and allow for the line to continue progressing towards the coast, albeit weakening. Given modest CAPE and strong wind shear there will be localized threat for damaging wind gusts. By no means a BIG severe threat but something to be excited over, especially knowing the REAL stuff isn't far away.

I don't know if there would be meteorological data to back this up (it could certainly be proven/disproven easily but can't do it right now) but I wonder if we see our higher end heat events when the source region is more southern Plains as opposed to desert Southwest. I only wonder this b/c you would think based on trajectory it would be much easier to eject in here from the southern Plains as opposed to from the Southwest for a number of reasons and my guess is one reason would be you have a shorter distance to cross so less time for the airmass to be compromised?

The continued signal though for big heat in the South is pretty crazy...looks like another stretch of record heat across many areas. Could see high's 105-110 across parts of Texas and Oklahoma.

The potential is certainly there, especially if we see such a trough dig into the West like what is being advertised. But even if the signal gets muted a little bit we'd still be looking at some big heat given how anomalous the look is now

The challenge for next weekend is you have that vortex across eastern Canada and southern tip of Greenland with multiple pieces of energy rounding this. Depending on strength and proximity, this could keep much of our region in a northwesterly flow and halt the northward progression of the warm front. Maybe a scenario where NYC is 95-98 while we are in the 70's.