weatherwiz
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Everything posted by weatherwiz
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Based on what’s being projected with the potential it seems like it could be visible even south of CT.
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I am really hoping we can get a good show tomorrow night. Sounds like the potential is there. I saw the northern lights once and it was stunning.
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will dead trees be easier to take down if we get a fall derecho?
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when I first started reading this I thought you were going to say it was moved indoors to the ripe smell of pot
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You would think so but it really isn't. Although I think it tends to do better when there is a well-defined lifting mechanism (like a cold front or pre-frontal trough) and larger-scale lift. But days in which convection is of the pop-up variety it's not very good. But given how small of a scale we're dealing with regarding the pop-up stuff, even the HRRR I don't think is high enough resolution to sniff out those processes.
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I wonder if we see a Colin 2.0 off the Carolina coast at the end of the week
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Sometimes I wonder if there are too many forecast products available on the models. If it wasn't for QPF charts or snowfall maps how many storms would get "hyped" up?
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Kinda hoping for some severe threats next week Being tickled by some stronger bulk shear but we'll need more than a tickle
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Not sold on any long duration event with this given how quickly occlusion is likely to happen.
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Ryan even said on Friday there was synoptic support
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Is that Kevin tapping out?
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There's some synoptic support
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The HRRR has been pretty steadfast. That's gotta at least count for something
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Especially if GFS is correct. Not very often you see NAM MOS > GFS MOS with temps. While I'm a big fan of NBM for temps I think tomorrow is a prime example of when it should be tossed.
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Does BOS even crack 70 tomorrow?
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I'm just going to blindfold myself tomorrow, walk outside, and stick my tongue out. If I feel drops it's raining, if not, it's not.
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12z GFS bufkit for CHH
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Despite how tilted the structure is early on looks like it tries to become vertically stacked and occlude rather quickly. Something to watch too when taking into account max rain totals.
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Just had something pass overhead too in Springfield not long ago. Sounded rather low.
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This system is very tilted with height. So there is room for some significant strengthening. But look at this upper-level look. I don't think some of the hi-res can be discounted. At this point, even being so close in, I don't think any solution can be discounted. There is no hardcore evidence of any one solution having more merit than another. There has been some ensemble support to.
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I really do hope that we can muster up some coastal storms moving into the fall. One thing we would usually rely on too is some remnant tropical systems in the Gulf moving up along and advancing cold front but no signs of that.
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Certainly depends on where you're located. It's actually pretty interesting to see how drastically different things can be over such short distances.
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And that's the thing...that's what happens in summer. Some areas get hit more than others.
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I see lush green trees everywhere. Sure some lawns are brown and crisp (some more than others) but unless you are peculiar about lawn upkeep most peoples lawns get brownish anyway in the summer, especially when you add in dog pee and poop
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Guess this is going to be a pretty legit system it's just a question of how far west can this tuck? Could you argue the upper-levels favor a potential tuck scenario?
