weatherwiz

yes...that was it. Junior year. That was so much fun

Had that happen one year in high school. It was right around the time of the near-Thanksgiving storm. 2004? Schools were getting out half day and by the time we got out we already had like 4'' of snow and roads were terrible.

Berkshires would be a good bet. That's probably where snow ratios ~10:1 are most likely. Even down this way in any heavier banding...10:1 ratios may be a bit tough to come by. I'm hedging 8:1...maybe 9:1 in any heavier banding and then less outside of it. However, if the 18z NAM is onto something that will be very wrong. 10:1 ratios would be pretty common I would think with maybe 12:1 to 13:1 in the Berks

18z NAM comes in with some pretty good fronto. Just hopefully we'll be able to generate much of this lift into the DGZ to really maximize the snow growth and the snowfall rates. Poking through some Connecticut soundings it might be a little tough to fully maximize this but there's still some pretty good lift getting into the DGZ at times.

Seems odd the GFS isn't a bit more robust. That's a pretty nice jet streak up to our north which should promote favorable large-scale lift. Should be further enhanced too with the llvl N-S temp gradient. Looks like GFS may be a tad stingier with some drier air aloft?

Newtown/Danbury/Ridgefield area is one great example of this. Learned that real quick at school

Bufkit not bad looking down around HVN (NAM and GFS). Would certainly see rates close in on 1'' per hour under the band

10:1 snow maps being tossed around like candy on Twitter leading to circle jerks.

This line of rain will come in like a lamb and go out like a lion

Only the low-end events no...this summer will be much better than tonight. Tonight won't be much of anything really. The core of the LLJ is off to the east and while mixing looks pretty good llvl lapse rates are not very ideal. Best gusts tonight will occur with the CAA

meh. A line of heavy downpours with gusts 40-50 mph. And it's a quick gust too.

We are actually like 5.75 weeks away from the GFS getting into the beginning of severe weather season here!!! You know how the Groundhog is used to like forecast 6-weeks of winter or whatever? We should get an animal to do that for severe...like a chipmunk or something,.

why do so many on Twitter seemed surprised about this snow potential Wednesday? Signal was there since last Thursday/Friday.

meh

Heartbreaking what happened.

Noooo I missed this yesterday.

Jeez... there's live feed but Ukrainian nuclear power plant is on fire and being attacked on all side. this is scary

I don't have and don't know is there is meteorological evidence to back this up, but I would have to say March is the toughest month to forecast for the medium-to-long range (I suppose you can throw one of the fall months into this). But with March you are fighting the seasonal transition, probably starting to see wavelengths shorten, you're introducing the potential for a greater degree of convection, and obviously big changes are occurring within the higher latitudes relating to increased sunlight, jet stream winds, and changes to both the TPV and SPV.

I think if there was a high-end moderate/high risk day that would be in the cards. But the stories out of the Plains are kinda wild. I'm not looking to get within 20-yards of a tornado like some of these chasers do. But there are so many stories of chaser congestion and people blowing stop signs and red lights...stupid.

I wish. I have off though last week of May/first week of June which is the two weeks my friend and I had been doing chasing in the Northeast since 2009 (though haven't the last few years for obvious reasons). But this year we are primed to go into the West if we don't get any decent threats here.

maybe we'll get a triple phaser mid-month eliciting feet of snow for New England with hundreds of tornadoes from the mid-Atlantic into the Southeast

I do feel like I'm sinking

It's frustrating beyond belief. I was going back to a notebook I made back in 2012 which I wrote down yearly snowfall data for ALB, BDL, BOS, BTV, BWI, DCA, NYC, ORF, ORH, PVD, PWM, and RIC. The links I had for these sites are no longer active. So I figured I'd go to the NRCC but the data they have there for these stations doesn't match at all for the most part from what I wrote down and data doesn't seem to go as far back For example, on the NRCC ALB only goes back to the 1930's but on the NWS page they have records back to the 1880's. BDL they only have back to like 1948 but I had it back to 1904-1905. Now I know some stations moved locations and not sure if that's why but this is ridiculous.

I bought volume 1 several months back and they accidentally shipped me volume 2. I could have also bought volume 2 but I shipped it back. I was planning on getting volume 2 at some point soon.

Same thing with severe weather. With tornadohistoryproject gone bye-bye there really is no place to quickly access tornado data...or to break it down as easily as you could on tornadohistoryproject...that place was a bible. You can download an Excel File from the SPC site but I've gone through it and there are even inconsistencies on there and you gotta be super careful with how you use it b/c I'm not sure how it works with multi-state tornadoes and it even has the same tornadoes listed multiple times and there's even numbers missing...it's ridiculous.