weatherwiz

about to get hit good!!

Here's the 12z OKX sounding. Some good instability aloft. Definite boundary in the llvls. llvl shear is meh but pretty solid getting aloft. Going to be an interesting day. I wish Albany was doing launches

Yeah looks like they could be gusting 40-45 mph...assuming winds are mixing to the sfc. Would be a good proxy to gauge whether any of this convection is rooted more sfc or elevated.

That stuff in southwest Connecticut working with some good parameters. Between 1,000-1,500 MUCAPE and some pretty good shear. Sfc instability is weak, but man if any cells can become surface rooted could see some large hail (plenty of hail CAPE) and damaging wind gusts.

Also clouded up here real quick in Springfield.

It does look like there is quite of convective inhibition to overcome today but this giant MCS like convective cloud shield is going to make it difficult. I guess the good news is if we can get heating and lift the WF north we would erode CIN quickly, but does that happen? Wouldn't bet on it.

Really not sure what to expect today. Would anticipate at least scattered stuff (could be more widespread). Getting good heating in Springfield currently.

If HRRR is correct flash flooding will be a big concern with multiple rounds of training storms. Lots of lighting too with high MUCAPE. Damaging wind gusts with stronger storms for sure too

Gust front was fun!!! 40-45 mpg gusts I’d say

Holy shelf

Swinging on the swings watching the lightning!!!! Wooohooo woooohoooii woooiiii foooking hooooo

So much lightning!!! Found a dark field facing west

I’ll be waiting here in Springfield. Will be going to shopping plaza which has good view west (though it will be dark). Not a fan of chasing in the dark. I don’t particularly like driving in the dark anyways but once you get into western MA lots of trees along roads. Can get dangerous if there is damage. my friend and I were in Russell, MA in 2008 when they got big wind damage and barely saw a bunch of trees blocking the road in time.

After the winds probably in the Atlantic

Anvil from that tornado warned storm heading into Pittsfield

Tornado warning for cell headed into western MA but it seems more like a straight line wind signal then tornadic to me but it’s close

Yeah some really good winds on that

made thread

Drastic differences between 3km NAM and HRRR though for this evening

Very healthy indeed. Need to watch those discrete cells pretty closely. LCLs are rather high which will probably hold back tornado potential a bit.

As of this writing we have a deepening surface cyclone slowly lifting northeast across southern Quebec province. This is aiding in a northward progression of rich low-level theta-e air with strengthening wind fields in response. There is also a plume of modified elevated mixed-layer air moving across the region. In closer proximity to the surface cold front and surface trough, numerous thunderstorms have developed across upstate New York with mixed modes containing discrete cells and the organization of a squall line. The environment is plenty conducive for numerous strong-to-severe thunderstorms containing damaging winds and/or large hail with the potential for a few tornadoes. In addition, combination of upscale linear growth with slow southeast advancement as the system becomes parallel to the upper-level flow will result in long-duration torrential downpours yielding the risk for flash flooding - perhaps significant in some spots. As we move deep into the evening, this line should advance across New England, however, as we will lose the diurnal heating this line will be weakening. Enough wind shear and elevated CAPE will keep the low probability for some localized severe weather into the overnight. Given the system becoming parallel to the upper-level flow, the progression of the cold front will slow. This is starting to become better identified within forecast model guidance. This will likely allow the development of numerous showers and thunderstorms Friday. While the environment will not be as prime as it is today, the risk for strong-to-severe thunderstorms with al hazards will be in place. Flash flooding will also be possible Friday and some significant flash flooding is possible.

Going to start a separate thread but I'm wondering if we're setting up for a big day tomorrow. The front is running parallel to the upper flow which will naturally slow down the progression of the front. Notice how the mesos are kind of pushing this activity into our areas a bit later and later...IMO that's indicative of a slower progressing system. Latest HRRR is pretty active tomorrow.

ENHANCED RISK COMING UPSTATE NY!!!! Called it yesterday

Love seeing this

I am hoping to at least be able to go a spot for shelf cloud viewing. Might be tough b/c it will be dark. My go to is always BDL but there is this little shopping plaza about 1 min away that has a great view west. Caught a sick shelf cloud and gust front at that spot last summer (it was a year ago yesterday actually).