weatherwiz

depressing people in here

Anyone else loving the newly added afternoon D3 SPC updates?

probably

Looks like the first half of September may be characterized by high pressure building in this week, FROPA next weekend as the high slides east, followed by another high pressure building in, and then eventually a front. The season is certainly transitioning. In the aggregate we'll probably end up above-average but there will be plenty of cool shots to hold those anomalies in check. But we'll see what happens...sometimes as we enter the transition seasons the medium/long range can go bonkers and overzealous with these high pressure systems and how much they dominate. Regardless, seeing this on the models is a strong indication the NH is beginning the seasonal transition.

When was the last time we had high pressure pretty much overhead for an entire week? There are definitely going to be some chilly nights next week, especially probably Monday and/or Tuesday with some large diurnal swings.

Certainly at 700mb

It's interesting how the GFS is with the "extremes". The GFS is known to overmix in certain airmasses and spit out absurd temperatures and it seems to struggle with overmixing too late in the season. Some of the GFS (MOS) numbers this week across the central states were pretty high. Then when it comes to cold it can often overdo the cold.

Next week has potential to be quite cool at night, especially in spots which radiate well but have to monitor the details with the high sliding through

Clouds here killed today.

"summer" just made hot chocolate

Wow no September thread yet? Usually a thread for the next month is made like 18 days out and the thread is 30 pages long before the month even starts

maybe with flooding PWATS up around 1.8-2.0'' again with a slow moving boundary. Could see multiple rounds of precip Saturday night into Sunday evening

maybe we can get some strong storms Sunday

yup...was every Wednesday. I think that ended up changing though not too long after I graduated (2006). It is possible though maybe my junior or senior year it went to every other Wednesday but I forget . I know the district made some big changes soon after I graduated, one of them was going to block scheduling or something.

From K-12 in West Hartford we had a 1/2 day every Wednesday in West Hartford. Not sure if this is 100% correct but I think the premise was for teachers meetings and district meetings. There may have been other reasons too.

This sucks...hot and very humid, yet aren't going to get any storms out of it.

The NAM was the more humid of the guidance...the GFS was mid 60's lol. But the typical caveats apply with GFS having the tendency to overmix but I am pretty sure all guidance lowered. Maybe I just didn't look into it enough or in great detail as mesoanalysis shows great moisture pooling and rich llvl moisture so maybe I should have looked beyond 2m dews

for dewpoints? I could have sworn that yesterday's 12z guidance backed off that. NAM had dews in the lower 70's to start with dews dropping through the morning into the 60's (with 70's persisting longer across the shoreline).

Wow...definitely ended up much more humid than I was expecting. I for sure thought we were going to see dews down into the mid 60's and highs generally mid 80's.

That time will be here before we know it

75% of the school day will be done by the time we get there. Also, don't schools do 1/2 on Wednesday's or is that not a thing anymore?

Those winds were like 60+ mph though and the ground was wet as were the tires/brakes. Brakes may not have been working very well.

80/71 at OXC so far. Hopefully they're managing the extreme heat in Waterbury well.

Couldn't have stated it any better It all is in good fun and quite frankly what else is there to really discuss? On the other hand though, I'm sure there are some who lurk and might be interested in learning more about weather and forecasting and I can't even imagine what's going through their minds lol.

I've grown to really hate the terms "above-average" and "below-average", at least pertaining to temperatures. First off, those terms means zilch to the general public and most probably don't even care. If location x has a climo high of 89 and it turns out to only get to 84...sure that is below-average but its still very warm. Look at like Montana or the Dakota's during their peak winter climo...departures could be like +30 and it doesn't change the fact that it is still cold lol.