weatherwiz

Well if we can get dews in the 73-76 range that would compensate for poor mlvl lapse rates

There's been some reports. These are pretty decent thunderstorms. Overall, ingredients for anything more than localized severe are a bit marginal. But could see a uptick in some severe potential as lapse rates are steepening and hail CAPE is pretty decent. May at least see some small hail reports and localized wind damage.

if that stuff continues building into Springfield its going to be nasty with the flooding.

no but I think I should be good to chase. Doctors appointment at 9 AM so working remote.

I am so glad I am remote today and not in Branford. I'd be so pissed. Non-stop thunder for like 3 hours now.

Just saw a sick CG out my window and of course camera was off b/c battery is dying.

So much rain it's quite cool out. Almost feels like mid January..temps much be in the mid 60's. Thinking of making some hot cocoa

I don't think there is a specific distance, I think it varies from airport to airport. I'm sure though an airport as big as BOS has the automatic alert system where if lightning is detected within a certain proximity the lights and sirens go off and everyone outside must take shelter.

decent wind gusts

Storm #2

just had a pretty close strike!

"Slowed" down here over the past few minutes but some pink pixels just to the west again. My girlfriend came back home for lunch (since the exam is literally 1 minute up the road) and as soon as she pulled in the driveway it started coming down so she had to drive back in it

my phone just went off for it. It is dumping. Not much else though...some rumbles of thunder.

Potential exists Thursday for widespread thunderstorms to propagate in a west-to-east fashion across the region late afternoon through mid-evening; including the possibility for numerous strong-to-severe thunderstorms which will be capable of producing damaging winds and/or hail with a few tornadoes also possible. Note: Model graphics being used but not mean that model is being favored, the product is just being used for illustrative purposes. Forecast models are in agreement that an unseasonably strong shortwave energy embedded within seasonably strong jet traverses New England during the late afternoon and early evening. Forecast models differ within just how strong this shortwave energy will be which will determine the overall strength of the shear. A warm front lifts northeast across the region during the morning resulting in a surge of high llvl theta-e air characterized by surface dewpoints climbing into the lower 70's. This combined with surface temperatures climbing into the 80's should contribute to a moderately unstable airmass with MLCAPE values as high as 1500-2000 J/KG. One determent to stronger instability may be the mid-level lapse rates. H7 temperatures are forecast to be around +10C with H5 temperatures only around -8C. Forecast model soundings show some warm pockets aloft which would lead to weaker mlvl lapse rates and could prevent stronger instability from materializing. As mentioned above, dynamics should be rather strong (just a question of how strong) with H5 jet of 40-60 knots and a llvl jet in excess of 30-40 mph resulting in a good deal of speed shear. With the warm front nearby, sfc winds will be more S to SSE with winds changing with direction with height through the troposphere. Winds increasing with speed with height (speed shear) combined with winds changing direction with height will contribute to large hodographs. As the shortwave approaches, numerous thunderstorms should develop by mid-to-late afternoon and traverse the region through the mid-evening before exiting the coast. Combination of strong wind shear, strong forcing from the shortwave, and moderate instability should yield numerous strong-to-severe thunderstorms which will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts, large hail, and even a few tornadoes. In the event we can materialize steeper mid-level lapse rates a higher end severe threat could materialize.

Nothing like making a severe thread (making the Thursday thread) while about to get a thunderstorm. I feel like a cherry about to be placed on a the biggest, most delicious hot fudge sundae ever.

Thunder!!!

I don't see why some get all bent out of shape with using feels like temperature or communicating the heat index. I mean when it's hot and dew points start getting up there (70+) that puts a lot of stress on humans (and animals). Someone may see 88 and go it's "only 88" but if the humidity is very high and it feels closer to 100...yeah that's going to add stress to our systems. ha you're right Not sure what I was doing there.

Dew points should sky rocket through the day Thursday with a pretty impressive surge of llvl theta-e air moving in. Dews of 72-74 I think should be relatively easy to achieve. Maybe 75-76 towards the coastal Plain.

Signs were definitely there with the way they were operating this off-season. I think the signing of Geekie all but hinted it was coming.

I could never in a million year do what folks have to do to prepare for the bar exam. This is her second go around on the exam, she took it just before we met in 2021. But she got additional resources this go around and feels much more confident. But it's like 8 hours of studying a day for 2 months straight 6-7 hours of testing today followed by another 6-7 hours tomorrow

It's been a while since I've done a war and piece long severe thread. Going to make one soon unless someone else jumps on the caboose first.

If only every athlete had the demeanor as him. We all know that isn't the case and that's what makes breeds like him special.

Now that's a better tornado wind profile Although LCL is a bit high with an inverted V look which would reduce potential somewhat. anyways though, not trying to downplay anything. That is one potent s/w which moves right across the region with unseasonably strong dynamics. What we really need to watch are the lapse rates. H5 is a bit on the warm side (-7C) as is H7 (+10C) and this shows up well with those warm bubbles on the soundings. If we can get lapse rates even 6.5 C/KM this could be a widespread event consisting of swaths of wind damage.

I've always been curious as to how that "Possible Hazard Type" is calculated. I kind of hate it actually I mean that sounding to me doesn't scream tornado. The combination of speed/directional wind shear and instability do indicate should a thunderstorm become mature enough to utilize these dynamics it could certainly produce a tornado.

Bergeron announced his retirement so I may just cry under the blankets and miss the storms