Best CAPE we've had all summer today.
SBCAPE: 4000-4500 J/KG
MLCAPE: 2500-3000 J/KG
LI: -8 to -9
Too bad shear wasn't stronger with a more potent system moving through BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
Decent lapse rates, both mid-level and low-level, combined with adequate shear, and mixed-layer CAPE 2500-3000 J/KG...there will be some nasty cells today.
EDIT: whoops, thought I was in the main thread
Absolutely agreed - the analysis is great. Sometimes the level of IMBY'ism and just the general "we have no shot" or it's going to hit" us posts can get too overwhelming (and not just in this case of tropical, but winter too. Even in the case of Lee, even if it has a 0.05% chance to hit us - the discussion and analysis is great because it's discussion and analysis what's drive learning and understanding. Now some people don't care about the learning and understanding - but ultimately that's what this place is for.
Social media - particularly the media outlets have pretty much married the Euro over the last decade. Not sure if it was Sandy or something else that drove it but media outlets drool over the Euro.
It's one thing to discuss all probabilities and potential outcomes on the board (even ones that may be outlandish) but some of what is going on around social media is ridiculous. There are just some things you don't mention or say publicly - but of course views, clicks, and follows are the most important thing in the world.
I think today could include an area slightly more east than yesterday. Might have a decent differential boundary setting up from western Mass through western CT
The GFS can have a massive mixing bias. This past week the GFS was going bonkers within the central states through the Ohio Valley. There were some locations GFS was spitting out like 97 and the NAM was 86 and NBM like 89