weatherwiz

Cowboys may be avoiding flooding rains in New England this weekend with the game in Dallas but they won't be able to avoid getting flooded with offense from the Patriots.

Everything going north. Seems like the only thing going south are the birds.

Going to the Big E around 5...what a stunningly lovely day. Another 10-15F warmer would be perfect but this is great stuff.

Yes, I believe PDO also incorporates SLP and surface wind stress. Incorporating SLP anomalies probably is a good idea when classifying PDO state during EL Nino (and La Nina regimes). I am very curious to see how the PDO progresses through the remainder of the fall. Based on raw PDO data, we're in a solid -PDO state and that massive warm pool in the north Pacific is reflective of that as well (only think really lacking is cooler waters off the western coasts). There have been very few winters where we had a strong EL Nino episode and a solidly -PDO state.

Question for @CoastalWx @ORH_wxman @40/70 Benchmark or really anyone who is much more knowledgeable than I am in this respect. I am doing some work with the PDO and ENSO phase. In assessing positive (warm) phase versus negative (cool) phase I am using this guideline from Stepen Hare and Nathan Mantua: Now we know that the PDO tends to be in the warm phase during EL Nino episodes and the cool phase during La Nina episodes, however, that is not always the case. Below are ASON SST's during EL Nino events. Utilizing the graphic from above, I am focusing on SSTA patterns within the equatorial Pacific, west coasts of the United States, Canada, and Alaska, and the northern Pacific. I am cross referencing with the raw numbers from this site https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/pdo/ One thing I'm noticing is I think the very warm waters associated with EL Nino across the equatorial Pacific are heavily skewing the raw PDO data. For example, here is 1913 PDO data for ASON (clearly the numbers are positive) However, the SST configuration is not very reflective of a +PDO pattern So I guess two questions are: 1. When assessing PDO state what metrics should be considered to balance out how ENSO may skew the PDO (SSTs within the equatorial PAC)? 2. If the SSTA configuration say from the west coast of the U.S. north across Alaska and north Pacific are more reflective of a negative (cool) phase but you have the warm SST's within the equatorial PAC due to EL Nino, what's the distinguisher to classify PDO state?

I haven't looked too heavily but I thought it seemed a bit weird how the GFS warms 850/925 Saturday and Sunday despite a flow which did not seem favorable. I would figure we would want to see at least even a weak westerly flow in the warm llvls to advect the airmass over the OV in. Now...it does look like there could be some over the top spillage into northern New England but I also question whether we'll mix as deep as the GFS is suggesting.

As modeled, I think the GFS is too warm for the weekend.

I am starting to consider it. Hockey gets me through winter...more snow makes it more enjoyable so hopefully this winter delivers.

It is freezing out. Have to put up with this for 9 more months Would be better if the sun was at least out...but then again it would also be warmer

Right...I'm referring to the more less extreme flooding.

Don't doubt that at all but some of the drainage systems are horrific and it stems to when they were first constructed. I can't remember what stretch it was...it may have been 84 in and around Waterbury, but when it was first built the drainage systems lead to nowhere...it was just a bunch of catch basin but they lead to nowhere. I believe there was a huge lawsuit on this and what happened was there was a big bonus if the projected was completed by a certain date or year. So to save time the drainage systems were never completed. Over the past I'd say 10-15 years there has been a ton of work around the state to upgrade the systems but so many of the street drains are clogged with debris and it gets really worse in the fall with the leaves coming down. But better care with this could probably prevent at least some of the flooding which occurs.

I'm also wondering if alot of these flooding we saw was a product of some pretty terrible drainage systems and the lack of care taken by towns/cities to make sure drains aren't clogged.

Hopefully the fall can at least muster up some low topped squall line events.

Some trees around here are certainly starting to show some color. Fall is here

It’s a hot chocolate kind of day. About to make some hot chocolate.

It is depressing looking at the entirety of GFS runs and knowing there is no big CAPE on the horizon and not for another like 9 months. Now I know why bears hibernate during the winter.

Leaves certainly going to be changing this upcoming week. Fall greats us with a big hug and kiss this week

I don't think this constitutes as derailing the thread. I am not an expert into model development and diagnostics at all so I don't really have an answer to this, but I would think that as biases are discovered there are tweaks worked on to try to eliminate those biases. Ultimately though, I think biases are always going to exist. This is probably also tied into the resources available. NOAA has seen some significant funding slashing the past few decades and this has really hurt the ability to further improve our modeling...now there have been some significant upgrades to the GFS the last decade which has closed the gap a bit versus the European model, but if there was more funding directed towards NOAA and improvement of modeling you'd probably see better performances and biases lessened. Again...this is just my thinking and I have no background into this so it's a thought that should be taken with a grain of salt.

Yes great point, also at our latitude "above" doesn't really mean too much (unless you're talking about something that is in the top percentile). As you know, we can still get a lot of snow and have temperatures be above-average...though yeah it could be walking a fine line (especially towards the coast).

Yeah I've always been a bit puzzled by it, but ultimately, I just don't think they have the resources to dedicate much too long-range forecasting, plus it's supplemented quite well within the private sector.

From my many years on the board (first joined I think in late 2006 or 2007) and a bit from school, what I've learned is forecasting is much more than just reading model output. Obviously forecast models are significant in the forecasting process, but forecasting goes beyond just reading model output. When someone is forecasting and analyzing models, they should be asking themselves questions in their head and coming to an understanding of what is going on within the model to generate that output. Does the evolution make sense? Is this a realistic solution? Are there any biases the model is known to have and are those biases being reflected here? You also want to fully assess a wide variety of data and output from all levels of the atmosphere. A lot of focus goes right into surface outputs (QPF, snow maps, precipitation totals, etc.) which I get because we live at the surface, but having a strong understanding of the upper-levels, the pattern in place, how the pieces are evolving and interacting will tell you more about what to expect at the surface than any surface product will. I also think having a strong background in the complex mathematical equations can help too. You also want to be looking for run-to-run consistency, model-to-model consistency, and recent model performance and having an understanding of this can help a forecaster confidence wise in which model to perhaps rely on more. Ultimately, it's all about experience and understanding of the models, their strengths, biases, and understanding the overall pattern.

Some forecast Just threw all strong EL Nino's together. Yes, strong EL Nino's have a tendency to be above-average in terms of temperatures across the northern-tier of the country, but there are strong EL Nino's which were colder. Can't just throw a bunch of years into a composite and call it a forecast or outlook.

Probably not much wind inland. Just gusty. Breezier along the shoreline with some isolated power outages

Where?

There is still a lot to resolve when it comes to what we can expect. I would think there is going to be a very sharp cutoff and gradient within the region. It's just a matter of where that gradient resides. There also appear to be two viable solutions 1. An all out rain/flooding event along/south of the Pike as the NAM suggests 2. A two part event where we get one round of heavy rain associated with warm front/strong warm air advection, which diminishes rapidly as the system occludes and then a second round as the decaying circulation passes nearby. Regardless, the weekend is going to be crap...cool, breezy, cloudy, rain but it's a question of just how crappy and whether we have significant flooding concerns. East facing slopes of the southern Berkshires into the Litchfield Hills could be a secondary max area for upslope enhanced totals. But if we get fronto aligned just north of Long Island across southern Connecticut and southern Rhode Island I'm afraid flooding could be quite significant.