weatherwiz

Potential exists Thursday for widespread thunderstorms to propagate in a west-to-east fashion across the region late afternoon through mid-evening; including the possibility for numerous strong-to-severe thunderstorms which will be capable of producing damaging winds and/or hail with a few tornadoes also possible. Note: Model graphics being used but not mean that model is being favored, the product is just being used for illustrative purposes. Forecast models are in agreement that an unseasonably strong shortwave energy embedded within seasonably strong jet traverses New England during the late afternoon and early evening. Forecast models differ within just how strong this shortwave energy will be which will determine the overall strength of the shear. A warm front lifts northeast across the region during the morning resulting in a surge of high llvl theta-e air characterized by surface dewpoints climbing into the lower 70's. This combined with surface temperatures climbing into the 80's should contribute to a moderately unstable airmass with MLCAPE values as high as 1500-2000 J/KG. One determent to stronger instability may be the mid-level lapse rates. H7 temperatures are forecast to be around +10C with H5 temperatures only around -8C. Forecast model soundings show some warm pockets aloft which would lead to weaker mlvl lapse rates and could prevent stronger instability from materializing. As mentioned above, dynamics should be rather strong (just a question of how strong) with H5 jet of 40-60 knots and a llvl jet in excess of 30-40 mph resulting in a good deal of speed shear. With the warm front nearby, sfc winds will be more S to SSE with winds changing with direction with height through the troposphere. Winds increasing with speed with height (speed shear) combined with winds changing direction with height will contribute to large hodographs. As the shortwave approaches, numerous thunderstorms should develop by mid-to-late afternoon and traverse the region through the mid-evening before exiting the coast. Combination of strong wind shear, strong forcing from the shortwave, and moderate instability should yield numerous strong-to-severe thunderstorms which will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts, large hail, and even a few tornadoes. In the event we can materialize steeper mid-level lapse rates a higher end severe threat could materialize.

Nothing like making a severe thread (making the Thursday thread) while about to get a thunderstorm. I feel like a cherry about to be placed on a the biggest, most delicious hot fudge sundae ever.

Thunder!!!

I don't see why some get all bent out of shape with using feels like temperature or communicating the heat index. I mean when it's hot and dew points start getting up there (70+) that puts a lot of stress on humans (and animals). Someone may see 88 and go it's "only 88" but if the humidity is very high and it feels closer to 100...yeah that's going to add stress to our systems. ha you're right Not sure what I was doing there.

Dew points should sky rocket through the day Thursday with a pretty impressive surge of llvl theta-e air moving in. Dews of 72-74 I think should be relatively easy to achieve. Maybe 75-76 towards the coastal Plain.

Signs were definitely there with the way they were operating this off-season. I think the signing of Geekie all but hinted it was coming.

I could never in a million year do what folks have to do to prepare for the bar exam. This is her second go around on the exam, she took it just before we met in 2021. But she got additional resources this go around and feels much more confident. But it's like 8 hours of studying a day for 2 months straight 6-7 hours of testing today followed by another 6-7 hours tomorrow

It's been a while since I've done a war and piece long severe thread. Going to make one soon unless someone else jumps on the caboose first.

If only every athlete had the demeanor as him. We all know that isn't the case and that's what makes breeds like him special.

Now that's a better tornado wind profile Although LCL is a bit high with an inverted V look which would reduce potential somewhat. anyways though, not trying to downplay anything. That is one potent s/w which moves right across the region with unseasonably strong dynamics. What we really need to watch are the lapse rates. H5 is a bit on the warm side (-7C) as is H7 (+10C) and this shows up well with those warm bubbles on the soundings. If we can get lapse rates even 6.5 C/KM this could be a widespread event consisting of swaths of wind damage.

I've always been curious as to how that "Possible Hazard Type" is calculated. I kind of hate it actually I mean that sounding to me doesn't scream tornado. The combination of speed/directional wind shear and instability do indicate should a thunderstorm become mature enough to utilize these dynamics it could certainly produce a tornado.

Bergeron announced his retirement so I may just cry under the blankets and miss the storms

Looks like the 3km finally caught on to today's convective potential

lots of warm pockets aloft though in that sounding.

Hoping that pans out.

Yup looks good for some storms today. Was waiting to see a marginal get tossed out there. Not sure I'll be able to get to BDL but I am remote today so it's possible. But my girlfriend also has day one of her BAR exam today and will be in need of moral support.

wow you're right...that's some pretty good llvl wind shear there. Also looks like we could get a plume of steeper lapse rates to work in.

What a difference between the HRRR and 3km tomorrow

Looks like some more flash flooders tomorrow

Friday could be something depending on the timing of the front.

Let’s go!!! Looks like worse will be north

Was taking out recycling and a cute little rainbow

Can hear thunder from Stafford from here. Outside playing with dog. May head in for fear of bolt from blue

hmmm wonder if I should head a bit east.

Hoping that cell over Granby blows up. Would pass pretty close or just scoot to me east