weatherwiz

Does last night constitute as a hard freeze? I think so. Was walking the dog in the yard to use the bathroom around 5:45 AM this morning and the ground was super hard. It was also very peaceful. Starting up at the cloudless sky and seeing stars...haven't done something like that in quite some time. You can just look at the sky and know it's cold.

I am hoping at some point down the road cod will add HRRR point-and-click soundings. I should check out Pivotal...I know they offered paid subscriptions. I have weathermodels for $10/month but it's really not that great.

That looks like a wall of heavy snow for the Berks and southern Greens on the HRRR. Should jump onto TT since you can check HRRR soundings there but per cod that is all snow with some intense dbz

Tornado Watch for parts of Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi. Almost forgot what a tornado watch was. First watch in over a month.

yeah I was looking at ORH on bufkit and that's a pretty decent cross hair signature. 6z NAM had 20 units of omega into the DGZ. You can really see the warm air is really struggling to penetrate into the polar airmass. Giving timing of precip too this could be a nice burst of accumulating snow for the interior.

Almost looks like a bit of dynamic cooling going on with the NAM

I always go back and forth with this notion as well and you know what...learning requires time and patience. Time and patience is something which seems to be fading in today's society. Everyone is in such a rush and people want so much information but they don't want to take the time needed to fully digest information. People who are out there to truly learn and understand something are going to take the time to do so.

At least the pattern is looking active going for at least the few weeks. The PAC is quite unstable too...you can see where the model flip flopping is coming from.

meh

Yes definitely. I was hoping maybe the GFS was onto some idea but these 12z runs have ended it for me. You can clearly see where this is headed now.

This is probably just going to be a typical FROPA with showers, some heavier rain, and gusty winds

I was just going to post this I hope it's not another winter of this crap with the model swings and uncertainty. This is beyond laughable.

Frost angels?

NAO to me looks to be transitioning. I wouldn't classify the NAO as a textbook +NAO.

The 0z GFS still seems like it would be a pretty decent front end thump for interior New England. What could really help in this situation too is timing of the precip. Also, I wouldn't totally discount the solution of 6z. There is definitely signs for secondary low development so if that primary doesn't become overly strong (or even weakens) the secondary could be more of a factor. Is it likely? Probably not, but this is going to be a very complex evolution and we need to see a better handle of the synoptic evolution.

That is one pretty negatively tilted trough. If we can get that secondary to be just a bit more east we would wedge longer.

I'm concerned Mac Jones will become the first QB in history to throw a pick on a bye week

Starting to get more confident in this scenario occurring. what I really like is there is an absence of any PAC air flooding anywhere in Canada or the United States...it's a cold look for a large chunk of the country. I am a little concerned, however, that it may be cold/dry but conflicted on this. For as cold of a look that is the pattern is not suppressed...we have the STJ close by with the PJ just to our north so there could be potential for something big to morph during that pattern. However, what concerns me is the barrage of Arctic high's which slide south and east into the Great Plains and into the East...this is what concerns me for the dry look.

I thought that was 2018. I was at school...it was alot of fun. Well wasn't fun for the commuters but I recall the snow coming in like a wall.

Was it Nov. 2018 when there was that sick early season SWEF or was the in December? I remember EWR getting crushed with heavy snow rates.

we take

True

Next Friday looks chilly. Going to the Wolf Pack game in Springfield. Hopefully not too cold.

Absolutely. Something fun to track over the next week. Kind of hoping that HP can act in our favor and maybe help suppress a bit but like you said...too early for these type of details. Can iron that stuff out early next week.

Regardless of track and evolution, I think it's fair to say that period of going to elicit a pretty significant pattern change across the CONUS. Whether it is transient or something that holds for a bit we'll see as the signals are a bit conflicting but if that pattern can hold we certainly should have some winter threats. Probably favored more as the pattern breaks down a bit.