weatherwiz

probably side lobe contamination there

Quite a bit of SBCAPE with no CIN...wonder if we're either eroding MLCIN or if that will kind of put a lid on how intense this initial stuff can get

Still a quite a bit of mixed-layer CAPE to erode.

lots of crapola popping up

I am rather skeptical about that thing...but I don't use it enough to really have a solid opinion but from the little I've really used it...meh. I'm so sick of all this AI crap

Block Island got crushed this morning

Most everyone is at least going to get some degree of rain. Some of the CAMS hint at some discrete cells this afternoon, but the main show is going to be vey late afternoon and early evening. Will see some very good lightning producers and probably another concentrated swath of wind damage.

I forget what the rate of Dewpoint decrease is. Isn’t about 2C per km past the LCL?

I don’t think morning convection hurts. Plenty of time for recovery.

***THIS IS NOT GOING TO BE A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK CONSISTING OF HIGH-END SEVERE WEATHER *** With that out of the way, Saturday features another similar scenario with a shortwave tracking across north-central New England. This shortwave is not de-amplifying like Thursday's shortwave and the response from this will be stronger height falls region wide which will help aid in large-scale lift and good wind shear with bulk shear values in the 40-50 knot range. These values will be more than sufficient to aid in updraft organization and should help thunderstorms quickly develop into one or multiple lines. One thing to note, however, is we do not have an advancing warm front to aid in low-level wind shear, thus any tornado potential this go around is much lower. We remain within a rather rich low-level theta-e airmass and the combination of surface temperatures well into the 80's to lower 90's with dewpoints into the lower 70's should contribute to moderate levels of CAPE once again characterized by mixed-layer CAPE values in the 1500-2000 J/KG range. The degree of instability will be held back once again by poor mid-level lapse rates and warm mid-level temperatures. Given the combination of strong shortwave forcing, decent height falls, moderate instability, and strong bulk shear, numerous thunderstorms should quickly develop moving through the early-to-mid afternoon. Strong bulk shear and predominately unidirectional flow will quickly allow convection to become organized and grow upscale into one or multiple lines. Damaging Wind Potential: The key regarding the damaging wind potential will be how steep the low-level lapse rates (particularly within the 2-6km layer). As mentioned above, low-level wind shear isn't particularly strong. There isn't much of a low-level jet to mix down. This means intense updrafts would have to develop to aid in downburst potential. On Thursday, despite the strong surface heating that materialized, we were never able to really steep the low-level lapse rate which can be a big discriminator in damaging wind vs. non-damaging wind events. There are hints, however, the low-level lapse rate could be steeper tomorrow. We will likely see a similar scenario to Thursday where we see a localized, but concentrated area of wind damage. This will not be widespread. Hail Potential: Very low hail potential given the poor mid-level lapse rates, warm mid-level temperatures, and subsequently, high freezing levels. Smaller hail is possible, but would take some significant updrafts for hail. Tornado Potential: Much lower then Thursday. Flash Flooding: Localized flash flooding is very likely given the already saturated grounds and potential for some training storms in spots.

Yeah I probably will. All in all I think it will be rather similar to yesterday, but with lower tornado potential. Should be good lightning producers.

I think one time I was drinking a 40 at school and I was bored and I tried to calculate a HI by hand with one of the equations and ended up with some crazy number and gave up.

This doesn't make any sense. For example, BDL is 88/70 that yields a HI of 93 (either by using dewpoint or relative humidity which is 55%). The temperature and dewpoint being used to calculate the HI or not coming from the shade.

Sea-breeze, or marine air, certainly has been a big killer as well, especially with early season events. What's interesting though is with waters running so much warmer than average I wonder if this has become less of a negating factor? I do remember some posts from you in the earlier years regarding this axis. It makes a ton of sense meteorologically. This would be a super fun research study (I actually wanted to do something like this for senior research, but it was just too in depth and I didn't have the time to do such a study). Ultimately, we can expect shortwaves to track: 1) North of the border across Quebec, in which the convective/severe potential is more far northern New England. 2) Right along the US/Canadian border, in which convective/severe potential is more northern New England 3) Just south of the border, in which the potential is northern and central New England 4) Right across northern or central New England in which the focus in central and portions of southern New England But we want these shortwaves to either be de-amplifying or remaining steady state - not de-amplifying like yesterday. If yesterday's shortwave was not de-amplifying we probably would have seen better lapse rates as one product of an amplifying wave is to cool the mlvls.

Totally get what you're saying. It is super frustrating when you think things looks good and then stuff weakens as it approaches This killed me as a kid growing up in West Hartford. It seemed to happen almost all the time with squall lines. This is actually a huge reason why I wanted to pursue studying thunderstorms and severe weather because I wanted to know why this happened. People used to tell me it was because of the hills All in all I think a big part of it is due to forcing. More times then not, the better forcing (shortwave forcing) happens to be too far north. So while we may have better instability then they do farther north, they can cash in better because they're being compensated with stronger forcing.

One other thing to add to the severe too is our geographical spatial coverage is much smaller compared to that of the Plains. Our region encompasses much less land - we're smaller. This has some degree of impact to our the overall extent of our events. I think this has been brought up before. It's also one reason why it is extremely difficult to get a high risk into here (even in the most perfect setup). Majority of high risks tied into derecho-producing events...it is very difficult to get that extent of damage needed to verify b/c we're just smaller compared to the midwest.

I mean it all really depends on a definition one is going to use to quantify "high end". While there really is no agreed upon criteria or criteria specific to a region, what's widely accepted as a high-end significant severe weather event really only needs a handful of significant severe weather reports. IIRC correctly, Ekster and Banacos defined a significant severe weather day in the Northeast as only needing 1 or 2 significant severe weather reports. But what you're saying about yesterday, how it was pretty meh for you, that is the nature of convective events and anywhere in the country. Even out in the Midwest on big severe days or during active periods, there are probably plenty of people who got thunderstorms that were pretty general. We could have a massive setup with an EML which results in widespread severe weather here and some towns get absolutely nothing or maybe just get some rain and thunder. We could have a pretty meh setup two days later and those same towns that got nothing or just some thunder...well maybe they got one of the bigger storms that day and had hail/wind damage.

Should be fairly similar to yesterday I think. So let's just get this out of the way now...No this will not be a significant severe event or high end severe event. There will be widespread thunderstorms with probably one swath of wind damage in a similar fashion to yesterday.

Yeah so nobody should have been expecting high-end severe or a region-wide outbreak.

Well this is true, but to a degree. An EML is important for higher end significant severe. An EML is not needed for severe weather. There seems to be a stigma around these parts on this board that when talking about convection or severe weather potential in New England it means 1) Every town is going to get damage 2) Every poster is going to see a thunderstorm It is all about understanding of the setup and expectations. All in all, yesterday performed exactly as it should have given the setup. There was a concentrated swath of damaging winds and there was a tornado. Yesterday was never about being a higher-end setup or about significant severe. The moderate CAPE and unseasonably strong shear indicated the potential for severe weather was higher than usual within the region, but it was of course below thresholds for significant severe. If anyone was expecting widespread significant severe yesterday then that is on them and their lack of understanding about the setup.

Might be similar timing to today

This was the area I was more thinking of

When my girlfriend and I were just about to pull in she noticed this. This is a few houses down. I didn’t submit to NWS because I can’t be certain this happened today. It’s possible it could have happened Tuesday.

Kind of figured we would see one concentrated swath of wind damage, but was totally off on where. I was thinking maybe northeast MA.

My friend who was chasing in Keene sent me this. I’m eating pizza and typing with one hand do this is a direct copy/paste of what he said instead of a summation “I also followed up with the NWS as I found the path just east of Marlborough. Trees down/ snapped. Relatively narrow path. It either ends at or crosses 101”