weatherwiz

It's very messy. Probably some hydro issues as well.

hmmm good catch there. Makes a ton of sense. Much closer to the better forcing and you should have a nice instability axis on the nose of the higher theta-e air and nose of strengthening LLJ.

Gotcha

I don't see how sun angle has factored into anything this week.

HRRR is most robust with convection tomorrow which means one of two things: 1) It is totally out to lunch 2) It is on to something and other guidance will play catch up I am slightly leaning towards #2. One big plus here is mid-level lapse rates are pretty solid for these parts (between 6.5-7 C/KM but roughly closer to 6.5 than 7). Despite surface temperatures mainly in the upper 70's, dewpoints into the 60's should contribute to 1,000-1,500 J/KG of MLCAPE. Shear isn't tremendous, but it's sufficient to help with updraft organization and latest guidance increases wind fields during the afternoon. In terms of forcing, the best overall forcing is well north and as stated earlier, height falls are extremely minimal and may even be slightly rising. This alone would likely reduce the aerial coverage of convective activity, but smaller-scale phenomena could locally enhance forcing. In this scenario, we could see a few small clusters or line segments evolve. What does develop should have ample ingredients to work with to produce hail and some damaging wind gusts. Could see some fairly decent mlvl mesos tomorrow. Again...this is focused on western sections.

Could see some nasty storms into Berkshire County and northwest Connecticut early tomorrow evening. A more linear storm mode may negate this somewhat, but could see some large hail. Lapse rates are actually pretty decent tomorrow and while height falls look meh, some guidance strengthens the wind fields across the region tomorrow. Timing pretty unfavorable for eastern areas.

Bingo.

I totally get it. I've gotten some messages here and there too or at least comments on posts. Very nice kid and it seems like he's been through alot personally (but I mean who hasn't?) and not sure if that factors into things. Certainly quite smart, but gives off the arrogant "I know everything" vibes. It's not even fun having a discussion with people like that because it just turns into a "you're wrong blah blah".

yup LOL

I might have an idea of who you're referring too

I love this story. That makes a whole world of sense. I think it's too easy to get caught up in numbers. Numbers aren't really going to tell a story, especially when dealing with some of the index measures like ONI which are smoothed and averaged over a longer period of time. Having an understanding and ability to assess the atmosphere like your coworker did will give you more clues then just about anything else.

Going to Brew at the Zoo Saturday in Forest Park. 22 different breweries will have beer and there are 5 food trucks. Get to drink beer and see animals. Weather looks great too. Though I wish dews were in the 60's or lower 70's. Yeah that's no good when drinking alcohol...blah blah blah.

Friday is intriguing, although the best shear is displaced to our southwest

Once we get past this weekend, looking at PWAT anomalies and theta-e the theme is for generally above-average PWAT values and rich theta-e air. The GFS at least shows a potent front moving through around the 13th or so which would elicit a period like now, but does that happen? If it does we get a good 3 day stretch of low humidity and dry weather, but right after that it would be an extended period of higher dews with rich theta-e air.

It's going to be highly dependent on what really happens with these fronts. We could easily see stronger WAR building west which would weaken the fronts upon approach or even stop them from moving through all together.

SST's are essentially fuel like instability is fuel for thunderstorms. You can have all the instability in the world, but that doesn't mean you're going to get thunderstorms. SSTs can be bath water and that doesn't mean tropical systems are going to form.

Moving forward, majority of the month is going to be a bit above-average with temperatures (again mostly driven by warm overnight mins) with plenty bouts of high humidity. One difference is we may see stronger frontal systems move through and behind those passages we'll get weather like we're getting now but those periods will be short-lived (maybe a few days).

Between tomorrow and Friday some areas are going to pick at a good 3-4'' I bet

Going to be some storms and heavy downpours up north tomorrow and especially tomorrow night. Probably see some flash flooding and maybe a few strong storms with some small hail.

ewwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww that is DISGUSTING. Not sure how anyone can drink that vile

Hoping to get in a severe threat Friday

If a tornado touches down in a forest and nobody is around to see it, was it actually a tornado?

I've thought about it being age too. It never really bothered me before (I mean the getting dark early always sucked) but the past several years it has really started too. But I think having a pretty solid winter would change that (at least for the season) One reason why I love hockey though...gets me through winter. Given how much winter sucked last year locally, the Bruins season really got me through the winter

Ever since COVID happened I find the season much more depressing. Maybe it was the lockdowns and not really being able to go anywhere or doing something. Of course I've also really had shit for snow the past several years and that hasn't helped. Having an active winter with plenty of snow events would go along way.

That is delicious