weatherwiz

I'm wondering if southern Connecticut through southern Rhode Island might get smacked pretty hard with rain and flooding. Wouldn't be surprised to see fronto setup here. We've seen some similar instances of this over the past several years.

Gotta wonder how far north the heavy rain will really get. That ridging is pretty damn strong. Also being enhanced by that longwave trough digging into the PAC NW.

Since I do trash on the snow maps I'll say it also irritates me when people just run to hodographs, supercell composite parameter, and significant tornado parameter to justify a potential tornado outbreak.

Even if the duration of the rain ends up being on the short side of the spectrum, the rainfall rates are going to be intense. Lots of rain will fall in a very short amount of time.

One thing looking at (and on all models) is the strengthening low-level jet. Pretty robust easterly flow overspreading southern New England with 850-700mb warm front progressing north within the region. There is going to be a ton of moisture being thrown in our direction. We have the high to the north so there is potential this system could become suppressed. I think we either get slammed with rain or get lucky...don't think there is an in between. Would have to check into tides but I would also think coastal flooding could be a concern as well.

That would be a boatload of rain on the NAM. I guess you can hope for occlusion to eventually shut the system down but many ingredients in place for us to get smoked.

check out the evolution of the ULJ. That's some solid venting and ulvl divergence going on. Nice phasing too with the shortwave digging southeast across Canada

That area may last about as long as Aaron Rodgers did in game 1

I like my eggs scrambled

This rain is insane

Thanks for the info here!

I don't know the specifics but I want to get brighter. Actually when I replaced my headlights a few years back I went brighter than what I had but it still really isn't enough. I don't want to get too bright because I know it can be very distracting (and blinding) for other drivers.

That sounds horrific. Would much rather a 4:30 PM sunset than a 9:00 AM sunrise.

What sucks about the dark the most is driving. I hate driving at night and in the dark, especially if its raining. Those LED street lights are pretty useless and the highways are horrific with very few stretches with actual lights.

who broke the NAM?

Been a nice steady rain this morning. I don't mind it because it fits in with the mood after last night. The sound of the steady rain is quite soothing on the ear drums.

That system tomorrow is pretty damn dynamic. Quite a bit of ulvl divergence as system amplifies. I could see heavy rain more on the widespread side. Not exactly sure where higher totals will occur but haven't dug that deep into the details.

There were 90K+ without power in Maine so it couldn’t have been that meh. I mean meh isn’t going to cause 90,000+ power outages

maybe getting ready for Pats/Dolphins Sunday night?

Yes, excellent point and glad you mentioned this because that is extremely important to understand.

Still showing some pretty solid gusts. Actually, I think the 6z GFS may be the strongest in terms of gust potential (just slightly). Showing a few hours with winds at the top of the mixed layer 57-59 knots.

8 AM advisory indicated hurricane force winds extended outwards of up to 105 miles from the center and TS force winds 310 miles. Be curious to see if there is any additional expansion although it's probably likely there will be some. This is a damn impressive field.

Frosty the Snowman?

Ryan

12z GFS bufkit still with several hours of solid gusts at PWM.