weatherwiz

Wow that's quite impressive for sure. The atmosphere is certainly going to be juiced. We're looking at PWAT values once again between 1.70-2.00'' so it isn't going to take much to ring out the atmosphere. We've all seen first hand what even "tiny showers" produce in terms of rainfall rates in this type of airmass.

I don't think it's a totally outlandish solution. That trough is continuing to amplify and interacts with the shortwave energy associated with that convection. Kind of has a fall/winter feel to it with the dynamics and interactions...idk

Seems like a good bet, especially if there is a great deal of consistency with the 12z guidance. This could be quite bad though if some of these scenarios verify. Luckily this should be more on the progressive side, but this is a situation where 2-3'' of rain could fall within a short amount of time. Sometimes its not about the rainfall totals, but how much is falling within a certain duration. I could see a narrow area though of 4-6''+ depending on how this materializes.

Yeah I don't think we see the true warm sector get very far north at all. But the widespread rain threat is very real given dynamics and strong upper-level divergence.

Tomorrow is going to be quite interesting. Biggest challenge is going to be where that sfc low develops and tracks which is going to be heavily influenced by the Ohio Valley/Tennessee Valley convection. I would think the most favorable track for this would be just south of southern New England, but is it across Long Island or just south of Long Island? In terms of any severe weather potential, this track is key because if the track is across Long Island, the true warm sector and triple point will likely scoot across southern Connecticut, Long Island, Rhode Island, and Cape Cod. There would be potential for some brief tornadoes. If the track is south of Long Island, severe potential is nada (except maybe Nantucket and the Vineyard). Regardless, I think we're in line for some flash flooding rainfall. upper-level dynamics are pretty strong and we look to be in a very favored position for enhanced upper-level divergence. Looks like H7 warm front pushes well into the region which will aid in lift as well. In addition, we'll have the nose of a strong low-level jet and a very moist airmass.

That is some bow the 3km NAM has tonight going into northwest Tennessee. Holy bowie

Going to be some severe event in the Ozarks into the Tennessee Valley today. That's some wild dynamics and stout EML above a very hot and humid airmass.

EF-1 tornado confirmed https://www.weather.gov/media/box/Public_Information_Statement.pdf

With our past experiences with these events they've become much easy to sniff out!

Agreed on all this 100% IMO too they require much more attention in terms of forecasting. Remember the fall events of 2018? A few of those went completely under the radar. These setups typically are driven by large 3km CAPE with the high shear/strong shortwaves. So if you're just looking at the general SBCAPE or even MLCAPE you'll completely miss the potential.

I did a presentation on that event at the TriState Weather Conference at Western Connecticut State University last October. One theory discussed too (I think it was Nick Gregory and I briefly discussed) was how dews may have spiked even more just out ahead of the main storms traversing Long Island and how rapidly rising dews can lead to vastly lowering LCLs and a surge of instability and that could have enhanced tornadogenesis with this stuff on Long Island.

Like Ryan said, warming SST's a few degrees is a big deal in these setups, especially the late summer/fall setups. We've had some pretty impressive fall events over the past several years where the warm SSTs helped build late spring/early summer instability under fall like dynamics.

These storms DEW mean business

Looks like some flash flooding rains Thursday

There has certainly been an uptick. Have to wonder what role dual-pol is playing in this too. How many more tornadoes are now being detected from (even brief) TDS that maybe nobody would ever know about and whether NWS would use resources to send someone out b/c someone's house got blown off.

we done outside of a few pop up showers

nahhh I don't think we see much around today. Probably just some isolated showers and thunderstorms at best.

Yes, good call. I remember seeing something similar around that area before with some past events and thought TDS but it is not.

EDIT: Not a TDS

I'm guessing it was on the ground for like 9-12 minutes or so based the number of scans the TDS was present with each scan I think updating every 3-4 minutes (though the scans may be closer to 2-3 min).

Another TD near Sagmore

Worst screw job since the Montreal screw job in 97

Yeah it's been looking solid for quick a while.

TDS

and there's the TOR