weatherwiz

FWIW 12z MET came down to Earth for tomorrow. Only has high of 72 for BDL tomorrow

? I'm confused with what you're saying. The high heat never really materialized this summer and obviously time is rapidly dwindling to get high heat in here (or at least anything prolonged). But we've morphed into a typical summer pattern for these parts summarized by warm/humid weather followed by decreasing humidity when fronts move through. We will continue be in this type of pattern until the foreseeable future. Doesn't mean summer's back broke...it just means we're experiencing typical summer weather.

What's your poo-poo threshold for tomorrow? Anything under 3''?

I get what you're saying but I also think our perceptions have become very skewed over the past decade-plus. IMO, what has transpired over the past few weeks and how the upcoming stretch looks just seems like more typical summer weather for us. When we start seeing more consistent fronts with highs 60's up north and 70's elsewhere with dews 40's/lower 50's behind the fronts that's when I would consider the back breaking.

GFS prime for EML advection this upcoming weekend and early next week. Unfortunately nothing to really utilize it. Though I wonder if Monday night would have some MCS potential diving southeast out of Canada. Obviously a week out so unlikely to keep this look, but that would be an intriguing look for overnight MCS

Hopefully Stanton isn't hitting for us come winter

GFS is 74 at BDL tomorrow NAM has 82...one of the rare times the NAM exceeds the GFS But think it's going to be tough for BDL to get much above the lower 70's. I'm wondering though where MAV/MET derive their numbers sometime. MET has the 82 for BDL (highest 3-hr temp though is 79) but NAM bufkit comes nowhere close to hinting at those numbers.

The front may even barely get onto the south coast

Summer's back didn't break. All we did was transition from an anomalous stretch of high dewpoints to a more typical summer stretch...meaning we get a mixture of days with lower dews and then days with higher dews ahead of any approaching frontal systems. That's not summer's back breaking, that's pretty typical summer weather.

The best Canes will be in Carolina beginning in October

Only in fantasies

I am seeing weak rotation looking towards ludlow.

That's exactly what happened to me in West Hartford last month. Winds were west and then all of a sudden shifted east as the storm was passing just to my East. Storms exploded and became SVR warned and I think there was wind damage just east.

Wow! Notice too how the easterlies happened right when that (I don't want to call it a lowering b/c it was tough to tell) feature moved overhead.

Yeah that’s an uneasy feeling and it’s pretty eerie one too.

Looked like it had some decent rotation for a few scans there

Damn it I was going to do some painting but some showers popped to the west.

Sun got blocked by clouds now :/

Scraping paint from some steps in preparation to paint (not today) but this is the stuff…covered in sweat from the hot sun beating directly on me with the humidity in the air.

I think it depends on whether the updrafts are interfering with each other. I would think the inflow is favoring updrafts not being perturbed so that's why you have multiple cells within this cluster really going to town. However, at some point if outflow becomes dominant it will choke off inflow into the entire thing and it will weaken. This is what perhaps the HRRR is getting at

If those winds are reaching the sfc Plattekill is getting crushed

Might be close to a TOR near POU

yeah models aren't too enthused at all which is certainly a flag, but the HRRR has been a bit inconsistent with this stuff today so just have to see how it unfolds.

Only good part about night storms is just the vivid flashes but you can't see structures