weatherwiz

I could see that happening. I mean in all seriousness, we are going to start and see hemispheric changes occurring very soon (even this month) and we're really a strong disruption to the hemispheric flow away from truly (as Steve likes to say) breaking the back. This probably happens this month...that doesn't mean we aren't going to see any anomalously warm periods and high humidity, but we will get stronger cold fronts which will usher in those early fall like airmasses and the duration of the cooler airmasses behind these fronts will grow longer each time (until we erode summer for good). I am hoping to explore some seasonal thoughts in the next month/two but I begin grad school classes in 2.5 weeks so probably not going to have much time to divulge.

I feel like this is going to be a special fall...warmth and humidity well through October. Will be able to watch football and hockey outside in shorts. With being to wear shorts with a hockey/football jersey it will look like you're not wearing pants.

I don't think Kevin ever said all the rain was going south of Connecticut, I believe he said the heaviest rain/flooding potential would be south.

If he was working in the energy sector he would have made alot of folks happy

Maybe this go around we'll have some more solid convective chances...for as hot and humid as it will become we also look to introduce some stronger cold fronts. Maybe we can sling an EML this way too

I think the models have actually handled this pretty well so far.

turned into a hot chocolate day

things will fill in across Connecticut so most should get a decent little drink but the flooding stuff will be south

that cell is spitting CGs in the inflow notch haha. starting to looks like a Plains supercell

there's the warning

that actually may be a few scans away from a TOR

interesting looking cell headed towards EWR

I'd watch the potential for a tornado or two across the Connecticut shoreline and especially Long Island.

Seems like the risk for any significant flooding is on the low side. It's looking like everything is going to be more progressive but where stuff trains you could develop some issues. But overall the rates shouldn't be anything too out of this world.

may see a few pop up showers/thunder across the high terrain tomorrow

Humidity needs to be factored in as well, especially considering how humid it has been this summer and how often we had oppressive dewpoints. Not dismissing the temperature data and what the rankings are but in terms of capturing the entire picture, humidity needs to be factored in to provide full context and perspective.

ahhhh I didn't know that...I take my statement back.

Thanks. hmmm kind of weird products

Is @OceanStWx around? what the heck is this stuff?

maybe a few tornadic supercells are southern PA tomorrow...though 0-1 shear ay be a bit weak

I am still very torn on this. I mean it's certainly going to rain and I think at least a general widespread 1-2" is likely but am very skeptical on something like a widespread 2-4" with a strip of say 4-7". I think the NAM may be overamped with the degree of the 925 jet and despite how juiced the NAM is, there isn't a ton of convective precip. I also think we're going to see robust convection across where the SPC has the marginal (probably eventually upped a a slight risk) and that is going to (negatively) influence areas north of that.

I think what's cool about grass is you can see a dogs pee pattern in it.

Actually some good llvl dynamic cooling on the NAM

Nice good soaking. Could be a solid damaging wind event across Maryland and Delaware tomorrow.

There should be robust convection which develops across PA/MD tomorrow...I would have to think that is going to be a huge player and rob a good deal of moisture which should scale back potential for significant flooding concerns. Dynamics don't even look as impressive as they once did