weatherwiz

yes

sticking to everything but the pavement now. grass coated, fence getting coated, rooves all coated

into moderate snow now and starting to coat on the grass!

Flake size might be bigger than anything I saw last winter

It is coming down pretty good now!

I'm not really knowledgeable with tree types and species but looking around the neighborhood it's pretty weird. There are trees which are completely bare and just about bare (like the two trees we have in front) while some trees have most of their leaves and still changing color. Neighbors tree still have much of its leaves.

I like 12/2

nearly a solid light snow now.

Flakes falling in Springfield!!!!!!!!!!!!

I'm really hoping to spend some time studying the Arctic this winter...both with evolution and continuing to look historically. I also want to look into the other side of the hemisphere...from say eastern Europe through Russia. There is one teleconnection pattern I wanted to look into but I forget what it is. I don't think it was the East Atlantic - Western Russia pattern (EA/WR) or Polar Eurasia pattern...but maybe it was one of these two. But there was another one.

I should also add...1986-1987 was on my list as a wild card in that if we don't get much blocking this winter may really suck

Thank you both. That was exhausting...never typing that much detail again My base years BTW are 1957-1958, 1963-1964, and 1968-1969. Only negative I saw for 2 of these years was were tropical forcing was located, but I don't think tropical forcing signal is going to have significant weight overall.

I apologize for providing a blog link here, but it would be a major pain to transfer everything here into a post, also with the number of images I have, I don't even think I have the upload capacity. I absolutely regret how lengthy this became and you'll see towards the end I just got much lazier. I started typing this up at the beginning of October but I have limited time where I can do blog work. I absolutely don't expect anyone to read through all of it. https://weatherwiz.blogspot.com/2023/10/2023-2024-winter-outlook.html

Happy Halloweenie Birthday! 35 today

well I am hoping to finish up my outlook this weekend (Actually I have too b/c if not I may never and I've put too much into it ). I was going to re-write it but decided not too. If it rivals the bible in terms of length than so be it. I'm just going going into as much depth as I did with the ENSO aspect. What really sucks for me is I suck with evaluating or forecasting Arctic stuff...which I get is very hard to do, but there are individuals who are very skilled at it. I really wish I had a better understanding of all these products, how to interpret them, and how to use them for forecasting purposes https://www.stratobserve.com/

The people who choose to commit these cowardly acts do so because...well they can. There is nothing from stopping someone from doing so. Stricter policies, laws, whatever, is only a small piece of the puzzle. Banning things isn't going to be a total fix, especially where the black market is available. While there are also policies in place preventing certain individuals from being able to possess weapons...that isn't going to stop someone from trying or obtaining. In terms of laws, laws are in place to punish crimes, not prevent them. Those who entertain in criminal behavior don't give a crap about the law. This issue is so deep and we will never, ever, every fix this as a society because there will never be enough people to come to an agreement. The, "This is my thinking and I'm right and you're wrong" mindset we've developed in this country is sickening.

Heart breaking what you, your family, and friends are going through. This is so disgusting.

Very gad to hear you and your family are safe. Thoughts and prayers to all impacted. Horrible

Yup you nailed it I should send you what I have lol. But I know how to make it much shorter so that will be good. This will give me some time too and try to do some work into the Arctic.

Going to re-write my winter outlook...been working on the typing the past few weeks (mostly weekend and evenings) but I got way too carried away explanting things. Almost to the point to where I am mentally exhausted (especially after working). Anyways, part of me believes the EL Nino has already peaked (unless we see some surges in WWB's). Warmer waters in 1+2 are very shallow and any continued upwelling with easterlies will continue to yield colder waters mixing to the sfc in that region (will have to watch for this EL Nino to become modoki, though that probably isn't likely). In terms of tropical forcing west of the dateline, should that continue here are 500mb height anomalies for these events (it should be noted that there are no strong EL Nino's on record with tropical forcing west of dateline (though 1925-1926 was right at the strong threshold). Doesn't mean it can't happen, just stating we haven't seen it. Here are EL Nino winters with T.F. west. (Note: 1939-1940 and 1976-1977 were on the threshold of moderate Nino and match well with 1925-1926) I have a list of years that I'm heavily looking at for analogs, but even those years have variations. One thing I'm noting is many of some of my matches either have strong, evident blocking or a very strong vortex. We have seen many winters the last decade where the PAC held the trump card, however, this winter may be more tied into the Arctic Domain.

Seems like much of the ridging in the east here is driven (or enhanced) by the energy which breaks off the jet early in the week across California and digs into the southwest United States? I'm wondering if that does not happen if this ridging would be much less pronounced.

Mine is going to be super long as well...my whole discussion on the historical context of EL Nino's is massive. While I understand the notion that people don't like to sit and read through long stuff (especially nowadays where our attention spans are crap b/c of cell phones) I like making long posts because 1. It helps me in my understanding 2. It lessens the likelihood of anyone questioning the validity of my work and that I just didn't "steal" thoughts 3. I hope it helps teach others who want to learn 4. I also hope it elicits a response from someone if I happen to state something incorrectly

I spent all of last weekend writing up the ENSO aspect of my outlook...discussing the historical context of EL Nino events. Can't really type up much during the week, but can at least work on composites and other stuff. I am super hoping to finish up my thoughts/outlook this weekend b/c the next few weekends I'll be busy and looks like weather across the country starts getting a bit busy the next few weeks.

Great stuff. This is what I had come up with for 500mb anomalies for EL Nino years in which tropical forcing was focused just west of the dateline. You'll notice I don't have 2002/2009 in this list, I had those years classified as Tropical forcing centered around the dateline, however, 2002/2009 absolutely would fit the mold of tropical forcing west of dateline. I noticed it could be a little tricky using OLR vs. SVP for determining tropical forcing. I used OLR because database for SVP does not go back prior to like 1948.

Judging from an assessment of height anomalies within the PNA region for many years in the database, I would argue that the PNA correlation with us is much stronger with the structure of the PNA field and where the center of the (strengthened or weakened) low is positioned then it is with state of the PNA.