weatherwiz

Look on the bright side...it's not unrealistic that we could get some 60's or 70's next month and could even tickle 80's to 90 in two months. Sustained, no but at least a few days, sure.

If anything, this is probably an event for the interior higher elevations.

verification will probably be +12C at 850

I think they do to some degree but I don't think models are great with this or radiational cooling. MOS/NBM can struggle greatly with these two, especially radiational cooling. MOS/NBM can easily end up being several degrees too warm in these situations. Too me at least, forecasting low temperatures can be extremely challenging at times and way more difficult than forecasting high temperatures. The best bet would be assessing forecast soundings, particularly bufkit where you're able to do do enhanced assessment.

How fitting

Wow time is flying, likely expedited by the heavy tracking with the storm for the 13th but we're now down to 76 days!!! In fact, two months from today, the 384 hour GFS will run out into May 1st...WILD

I do love corn. Though the corn probably attracts giant spiders there

Just give me 90-95 with dewpoints 70-80 and a large EML advecting in from the Southwest to coincide with a strong impulse at 500mb racing across the Great Lakes enlarging our hodographs with morning convection along the warm front producing golf ball sized hail then supercells develop 1-2 PM followed a derecho plowing through between 5-7 PM and getting to view the descending sun glowing beautifully off the 60K cloud tops

This is a great post, it is short, sweet, and I think portrays perfectly how the idea of climate change should be viewed. While I do believe human activities have escalated the rate warming during this Earth's warming cycle, I can't stand how every major weather catastrophe gets blamed on climate change. When I view climate change and try to understand how human induced activities have contributed, I stick to the basics of what we know about weather. Your example there makes perfect sense. We know that CO2 and H20 are heat trapping gasses and we know these gasses are not good absorbers of shortwave radiation and we know they are excellent absorbers of longwave radiation. Given this understanding alone, it is very easy to see how an increase in both would result in warmer overnight temperatures.

I mean even the NAM is well mixed on bufkit and showing gusts over 50 mph. NAM actually looked a bit more mixed than the GFS. That's a pretty steep lapse rate in the lowest few km

Im shocked no wind advisory for N CT

This is the 6z NAM bufkit for BDL. Brief, but would certainly rip. that could drop a quick 1-1.5'' of snow

doesn't look like it, though we may see some snow showers late as we have the trough rotating through.

3km NAM has a heck of a LES streamer reaching all the way to the Berks late overnight

That is a pretty impressive anafront passing to our southwest tomorrow.

Unfortunately, it is very difficult in our society to have great debate without discussion turning personal. Everyone thinks their view is correct and the opposing view is incorrect. Some of the posts from several pages back discussing MJO/warm pool, etc were quite interesting. There should be a spinoff thread somewhere else to continue that discussion.

Yup...understandable, and i get it regarding the politics of it. But IMO, if there is a great discussion going on with a back-and-forth of data, data interpretation, hypothesis/thesis, and arguments then it should be totally fine. If someone or people are going to throw a tantrum because what they're reading goes against their beliefs and cry for the discussion to stop then that is ridiculous. There are some on here who probably are involved in the work force or research where this topic is virtually their entire career and they should be able to elicit discussion. If people have a problem with discussing science...in any thread but have no problem tossing around sexual jokes and making sexual references I think we can see where the problem lies.

Why do some get so bent out of shape when there is discussion which incorporates climate change/global warming? Read through some of the last 5-7 pages and there is some excellent discussion/debate. I get there is the whole climate change form and whatever but there is nothing wrong with great debate and discussion and much of what has been posted has been very informative. Maybe there is a place for it but its much better than the constant sexual references and posts which have zero value

Yeah right. What a brutal place to live really. Get hardly any thunderstorms, 90% of the state could be in the lower 80’s and they’re still in the 60’s. Awful

I'm pretty sure January was solidly below-average for Anchorage. They had some prolonged stretches of extreme cold.

could be wrong...thought I had come across something recently that it was one of their coldest to.

Certainly not happy with this forecast at all. Maybe it looks “fine” for Connecticut but an absolute disaster along the Mass Pike area and I essentially pulled the plug and called bust for Connecticut Monday evening. now ultimately one could say all I had to do was just shift this down some miles and tighten the gradient. If I had more time/energy I would have made an updated map but l would have not made those changes. I would have went significantly less for Connecticut and maybe do 4-7” southern and 2-4” so it would have been much worse if I did something so this map makes the forecast better than it would have been.

What a winter for Anchorage. One of their coldest/snowiest on record then they roll in with a daily record high yesterday. They must be jumping for joy...unless they like the cold.

There is a narrow, but large swath of WWA's and even some winter storm warning's along the expected path of this clipper so we'll certainly want to see how that ends up performing. Something else to watch is whether the core of the system passes over the Great Lakes as sometimes that can provide the system with additional moisture.

Yeah you can see the dry slot on guidance punch right into SNE after that quick WAA burst potential. I think there is room to dig that vort a bit more given the jet streak hasn't yet rounded the base of the trough as it is crossing NNE but that flow is pretty fast and the digging may happen too late for us. I'd watch for some advisory snows in southwest Maine into parts of New Hampshire. There also looks to be a bit of an inverted trough signal.