weatherwiz

NAM bufkit is out! So far looked at a couple locations (Waterbury and New Haven with New Haven shown below). Beautiful crosshair signature for a good 3 hours. But note...the duration of the snow, particularly the heaviest snow is going to be short lived. This is something that is going to cut back on the upper ceiling with this. It could really be difficult to pull off more than 6-7" but there are many factors to consider here. NAM bufkit even looks solid through Hartford. But it should be stressed that this is solely tied into the banding...meaning if you are not under the banding, its probably going to suck and may be difficult to accumulate more than a few inches (though most should be happy with that).

2014-2015 winter? That might be what I am thinking of then.

Early 2010's? Edit: Maybe 2013 or 2014?

Is the NAM starting to pick up on where that fronto band will traverse? But you can see with this one...its essentially where that fronto band occurs. Outside of that band precip is pretty meager. The cutoff is going to be wild

NAM coming in hot and heavy. that is a crushing even through Hartford. Hefty fronto band

Explains that jackpot of totals. I don't know if 4-5" per hour is happening but that would be absurd lol.

Holy shit..that might rip 2.5-3" per hour with thunder

Where the best of heaviest snow occurs max totals should be upwards of 7-8-9" or so. 10 might be tough just because of how fast the system is moving but it will probably dump 2" per hour under the band for a time.

Just have to hope we remain with positive trends at 12z

Please NAM verify…please

Kind of seems like dry air and some subsidence would be an issue on the NAM. This would be a verification mess. You would probably get some spots getting 4-6” and then some spots barely getting 1-2”…and probably within close proximity. But can’t really buy this yet or take any value from it. If the GFS/Euro hold serve this can probably be tossed. Wonder where RRFS will go

Sucks sounding on cod don’t work but the precip looks kinda all blotchy. This is so weird

Well…lol

I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw a tick back south. If anything, I am hoping the mesos start improving 0z otherwise that could be a big flag concern

Yup…you can see this poking around bufkit. Under the lift, ratios could exceed 15:1. Well away from the lift quite a bit below 10:1

Pretty hefty 3 hr bump for sure. probably some thunder in there too...a bit of a MAUL

The one I remember best was November 2018. NJ into SW CT got absolutely crushed...that was with a SWFE I think but that was wild. I think Newark got something like 6-7" of snow. What made this event worse was it occurred during evening rush hour.

I was just looking at the RRFS...that and the 3km are like what event lol. I guess thankfully we are a bit out of the time range for the mesos but I think they should yield some degree of concern. They both sort of hint at the potential for basically a narrow band of precip and that is it. I'd have to hedge them being underdone in terms of precipitation but they may have the right idea on the narrowness of the heavy snow.

This is going to be a nightmare right up until go time

Phily could actually get porked with sleet lol. that mlvl dry push may seriously screw with things. I have no clue what to take on it. I feel like it won't be an issue because it will be trailing the precip shield but I suppose some of that drier air could get entrained and it screws the whole process up. Maybe that's what the 3km is doing? Kind of hard to tell...not much for products available on the 3km

This might be a case where the snow comes in like a wall, falls 2"+ per hour for 2-2.5 hours then quickly starts to shut off.

wow that is ugly...looks more like convective precip lol

Nice thump on the NAM...in and out though.

4-8" is a good call right now. It reflects some of the uncertainty which exists and allows for some adjusting once the uncertainties are better known.

Initial thoughts: Greatest uncertainty is the farther northeast into the state you go. The greatest warm air advection is going to occur well to our southwest, from PA into NJ and likely clipping southwest Fairfield County. Where this occurs is critical because this is where the heaviest banding of snow will occur along with the heaviest rates and highest ratios. I think there is room for some higher totals in southwest CT (possibly in the 6-8" range) but there are questions about drier air advecting in aloft and drying out the DGZ. This could result in a solid 2-3 hour window of moderate-to-heavy snow with snow quickly decreasing in intensity and snow growth become poor. This would also occur as the WAA diminishes. It is also very possible the mesos are throwing us caution flags which need to be considered as many of the mesos essentially have one heavy band, with little outside of this band. That would fit the mold of this setup well as much of the forcing is tied into the strong WAA. Might have time to update this tomorrow. Depends on what I have going on for Christmas after work.