weatherwiz

Agreed on this. You can see that hinted at just looking at how the mlvls evolve. This is more like a cool season evolution than something we usually see in the warm season. Just looking at 700 RH you can see the idea of two jack zones and where

I don't know if I see much flooding potential outside of any typical flood-prone areas that flood if it precipitates for more than 5 minutes. A lot of this is drawn out over multiple days and ends up being more convective in nature. There will be a good slug of rain early on in the setup with the warm front or even triple point but this looks to occlude rather quickly. Any flooding risk probably confined to (if) any areas that are hit with several rounds of convection.

love how this tiny spec of green gets right to where ineedsnow is

Agreed

the heat will always find you

Gotta be extremely careful here just rip and reading total QPF maps. It might be difficult to get widespread amounts as modeled. The axis of highest totals is going to be confined to where the warm front is located and this will be a narrow axis. Also potential for this to close off to our west which would introduce dry slot concerns. Going to be a quite a bit of convection though so there are going to be some areas that probably get smoked, but we may see some drastic differences in precip. amounts across the region when all said and done. There should be some concern though for some significant flash flooding but how widespread?

Certainly looks like there will be some risk for strong-to-severe storms

Doesn't really look like a washout to me this week. Looks to be more daytime heating driven scattered-to-numerous showers and thunderstorms. But Tuesday into Wednesday may have a solid line of very heavy rain and thunderstorms moving through at least part of the region.

Tickle me I'm in fantasy land

Tensions are building. I foresee an all out brawl in here come December. Hell in a Cell style. Will be carnage everywhere

Did a few assignments in my Quantitative Analysis class using R recently. Fun stuff...interesting programming language.

We gots ourselves a TOR in Maine

I could see more of an argument if we were seeing something more anomalous like a barrage of like cutoff lows or something along the lines of a tendency for omega-block patterns (just using these as random examples) but this recent stretch of rains has been the product of slow moving frontal systems and warm front progression...kind of par of the course for mid-summer.

Certainly may see a few localized strong storms east of the river today

Not really sure how you can attribute this to ENSO. I mean there are just synoptic fronts moving through and getting heavy rains from the warm front and then scattered convection out ahead of the cold front. Unless there is an argument these are more common during summers with a developing EL Nino but these setups aren't uncommon during the summer months.

Sharon, CT heads up soon

Rain is absolutely nuts here

I think its hung up in central CT...probably very close to BDL

Its worth watching. Much different versus Saturday. Per mesoanalysis any CIN from the rain moving through has essentially eroded and instability is building quickly. Just have to probably push the warm front a little more east but western areas definitely need to watch this given how radar is unfolding. Pushing 1500 J MLCAPE into SW CT with 200 m2s2 of effective SRH.

Might have to consider a TOR watch at this point. Everything blossoming is rotating

one reported on the ground northeast of Scranton

ramping up the TORs in NY

watch be coming soon for western CT

It's a good thing there is minimal sfc instability or at the least sfc parcels aren't getting to the LFC. Also, thats some pretty hefty ZDR values around Monroe to Seymour to Oxford...definitely some FF concern

there was an even a report of wind damage in Shrub Oak, NY near Putnam Valley