weatherwiz

That is pretty insane to see. That would probably be a legit thunderstorm with 4" per hour rates lol. Maybe some waterspouts too

GFS too with the signal up around BOS

If upward vertical motion was greater over a widespread area I could see this but not sure we will have enough over a large area to support that.

12z NAM bufkit for BOS. 30 ub/s of omega there. Although I am curious as to why the dip in snow ratio during the height

Absolutely

Now I'm seeing some of those soundings. Not sure if this is a COD thing but sometimes the point-and-click soundings don't really match up to what you'd expect to be seeing. You'd have to wonder if some localized warning amounts are possible if this verified

oh no...I meant location

where did you find that? I was looking through trying to find some soundings like that. That is pretty damn unstable too

That's some really good convergence which develops through the day across eastern Mass. I'm curious to see what the HREF has for precip...I would not be shocked if QPF is going to be understated where synoptically it looks best for prolonged and heavier snows.

Definitely interesting up around BOS on the NAM. Agreed...I'm thinking most should see 1-2" but where you get those localized bands I could legit see some spots picking up 3-5".

It's going to be very localized but there is going to be a very narrow area which I think pulls off 3-5" within eastern CT...maybe more into SE CT

The 12z HRRR has that feature too

Based on what was going around on social media I don't know where the idea came really of a "torch" or whatever you want to call it upcoming. I mean we were clearly going to moderate from what we've been experiencing. This is when anomaly maps get tossed around and are used and interpreted incorrectly. We are still in peak climo in terms of temperatures...orange and red shadings on anomaly maps don't necessarily indicate or mean warm...we can still be above average and its still relatively cold or chilly or whatever. The only areas where its clear there will be a significant warmup is within the central Plains. Even those temp anomaly maps from BAM or sham or whoever...+12 to +15 in the upper-Midwest this time of year is still chilly

Makes my life easier. I was creating stuff using the ENSS-ONI, ONI, and RONI...now I can just eliminate the ONI

Yup. Sounds like the ONI will continue being maintained but the RONI will be the go to now.

@40/70 Benchmark Even a better page dedicated to the RONI and much easier to view the data https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/#latest-data

Wagons in on that 13-15 period. Time to throw in the chips and hope for another biggie

Time is starting to run thin though, especially with not much - if anything in the pipe line in terms of anything big except that mid-month period but there is disagreement on how legit it is. Obviously we can get snow and big storms into March but it becomes much more difficult to do (outside of NNE). But once we hit that time change...bring on the warmer weather.

Going to enjoy what's left of winter and continue enjoying and admiring the scenery outside, but in another 4-5 weeks...I will be full on ready for warmer weather and looking for that first stretch of 60's.

Oh wow didn't realize this but the RONI is going to be the official monitoring and prediction of ENSO for the CPC https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2026/pns26-05_Relative_ONI.pdf

Euro doesn't look too bad for Friday night and Saturday. Not looking in at zoomed in but looks like maybe even a bit of an inverted trough into parts of RI/eastern CT? Probably be a good 2-3" region wide I'd think

Just caught the post after the reply. Thanks for the clarification, this actually makes much more sense. So ultimately, we *could* (if a storm signal remains) end up seeing guidance transition from the coastal look depiction to something more along the lines of an overrunning signal (or dare I say...cutter)? Would not be the first time we've seen this happen

hmmm I thought opposite when looking at the teleconnections. Rise in the NAO with a declining PNA All of this during a period which looked to be active with shortwaves progressing within the flow across the country. I know the OP shows a storm but not necessarily basing my thoughts on the OP...but seeing the OP with a storm kind of backs up the potential?

Our best chance upcoming is going to be that mid February time frame. I don't have much confidence moving into the second half of the month...there's been increasing signals with a flip on the PAC side and introducing more trough amplification into the West and we know what that mans for us. A bit of vitality showing up with respect to pattern evolution second half of the month...that look makes me nervous because it could be signaling the hemisphere is making strides towards the seasonal transition. Not saying winter is over or snow threats are done because slight tweaks in the evolution opens a window. So for now I don't have much in the way of expectations and proceeding with lower confidence moving forward.

Agreed. These things don't just come in quiet. I think there will be snow showers and squalls around all weekend, perhaps not widespread but there is definitely some moisture around. Orographically areas likely favored