weatherwiz

the flood watches have flown

Hoping there are no injuries or fatalities. That looks awful EDIT: well no fatalities, I see injuries reported

ATW gusted to 45 knots. No report of funnel or TOR in the METAR but looks like it may have formed extremely close to the airport or passed by very close

yikes

Next week is going to be great when we pump in 70+ dews

ahh yeah I didn't check the 3km yet. Something like that is exactly what I am trying to envision happening. You can see too how that really hammers the lower Hudson down to around Newark...could be some serious flooding down that way.

Someone for sure, but how widespread of an area? That's what I'm a bit iffy on. Could be the Berks that get smoked in this.

That's cute Love how the bullseye is right over me. That's how you know it isn't happening But looks like the NAM wants to pump the fire hose Wednesday night. Still seems a quite a bit overdone

ehhh this isn't looking that impressive for widespread significant rainfall totals. Greatest concern for several inches of rain is going to be the Hudson Valley into NJ tomorrow into the overnight but as the system continues sliding east its going to begin occluding. Also seems like there are two warm fronts with this...we get a diffuse warm front maybe into southern CT and dynamics are solid...so we're going to see rain but it should generally be light-to-moderate and a bit more on the spotty side with heavier rain tied into convection. The true warm front seems to get pinched off well south. There will be some wild gradients with totals...some spots will probably see 2-3-4" of rain (but really spread out over multiple days) and some spots may struggle to even get an inch. All in all, a nice good soaking rain for some, perfect because the ground can easily absorb it and limit any major concerns for flooding. Could be big flooding through Hudson Valley into NJ

I wonder if we can muster up a sunrise surprise setup across Long Island or coastal CT/RI early Wednesday morning

I think too alot of how this evolves is tied into how the convective scenario evolves today within the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley which remains quite complex

Agreed on this. You can see that hinted at just looking at how the mlvls evolve. This is more like a cool season evolution than something we usually see in the warm season. Just looking at 700 RH you can see the idea of two jack zones and where

I don't know if I see much flooding potential outside of any typical flood-prone areas that flood if it precipitates for more than 5 minutes. A lot of this is drawn out over multiple days and ends up being more convective in nature. There will be a good slug of rain early on in the setup with the warm front or even triple point but this looks to occlude rather quickly. Any flooding risk probably confined to (if) any areas that are hit with several rounds of convection.

love how this tiny spec of green gets right to where ineedsnow is

Agreed

the heat will always find you

Gotta be extremely careful here just rip and reading total QPF maps. It might be difficult to get widespread amounts as modeled. The axis of highest totals is going to be confined to where the warm front is located and this will be a narrow axis. Also potential for this to close off to our west which would introduce dry slot concerns. Going to be a quite a bit of convection though so there are going to be some areas that probably get smoked, but we may see some drastic differences in precip. amounts across the region when all said and done. There should be some concern though for some significant flash flooding but how widespread?

Certainly looks like there will be some risk for strong-to-severe storms

Doesn't really look like a washout to me this week. Looks to be more daytime heating driven scattered-to-numerous showers and thunderstorms. But Tuesday into Wednesday may have a solid line of very heavy rain and thunderstorms moving through at least part of the region.

Tickle me I'm in fantasy land

Tensions are building. I foresee an all out brawl in here come December. Hell in a Cell style. Will be carnage everywhere

Did a few assignments in my Quantitative Analysis class using R recently. Fun stuff...interesting programming language.

We gots ourselves a TOR in Maine

I could see more of an argument if we were seeing something more anomalous like a barrage of like cutoff lows or something along the lines of a tendency for omega-block patterns (just using these as random examples) but this recent stretch of rains has been the product of slow moving frontal systems and warm front progression...kind of par of the course for mid-summer.

Certainly may see a few localized strong storms east of the river today