weatherwiz

Weeklies are warm for January? big month of cold and snow incoming

yeah eastern areas def have greatest potential to get temperatures well into the 50's and some stronger wind...perhaps even some convection too

I'm sure they will have a top notch cooling system that is going to be cranking (can't even imagine the cost) but I have to think there will be some issues with the ice.

With this ridge centered over Florida they may be playing the outdoor classic on a pond. It will be a water polo match instead of a hockey match

I would be shocked if there isn't some widespread, high impact winter weather somewhere along the northern tier of the country mid-to-late week. There is no way we go through that without something somewhere

I bet they enjoyed a good ice storm

Santa's been around since the start of time

Bring on a Christmas Ice Storm. The cave people did Christmas without electricity, we can too.

I wonder if we start Friday with some very dense fog

whoops...that should have just said Long Island...not the sound lol. Long Island had a nice little hit from the storm. But I guess looking deeper...it will be difficult to prevent temps/dews from climbing into the lower 50's though I am curious to see how far north we can get those. Could struggle to get the warm front to lift much past the Pike. If that sfc low either trends a bit farther southeast or a weak wave develops along the front...the warm sector would get squashed a bit. Probably would see a funny shaped front

the NAM hints at that potential but it has a little pocket of steeper lapse rates and some higher MUCAPE. The NAM I think can often overdo those in these setups but its not unheard of to get some thunder/lightning with these, especially towards the outer Cape/Islands.

I'm also curious as to exactly how high temperatures will climb in the warm sector Friday. You'll have a southerly flow coming off unseasonably cool waters, plus coming off a snow cover on Long Island Sound and then across southern CT. I wonder if it will be more upper 40's versus lower 50's type stuff (not that I guess it matters much). Wind potential probably held back too because I'm sure there would certainly be a stout inversion. Maybe some wind potential if any elevated convection can be generated.

I think sometimes we try too much or hope too hard for that perfect pattern but perfect patterns are tough to come by. I've become a firm believer in that it's not just about the pattern, it's about how the pieces are moving, evolving, and interacting within the pattern.

I would love to pull off one major storm before my next semester starts so I can at least enjoy it alot more. Keep em ripping after that but will be harder to enjoy/dig deep into the forecasting pocket for. I am cautiously optimistic for early January...the pattern may not be entirely supportive for a biggie but it could be active. We also may introduce some southern stream involvement...I don't see the southern stream being active, but if the southern stream can shoot some energy our way and phase up with a northern piece...there's our biggie potential

This illustrates beautifully. While using OP at this time range isn't particularly great, I do think there is some value in assessing how the OP is handing the overall evolution of the pattern during that time frame. In doing this, you can see there has been a tendency to somewhat compress the heights a bit and there is also some pretty strong vort maxes modeled...these would further help to flatten that flow out a bit. That look on the ensembles screams some sort of storm potential. I think that period through the first week of January is shaping up to be active.

Yeah there really is no reason to panic or anything yet. It's already been established the surface may not be totally reflective of what is going on in the mid-levels. What we can gather from that period, however, is that it could be active. How those pieces fall into place...way too early to worry about that.

The one thing I think everyone does best though is when there is a legit threat or when an event is ongoing...the discussion is generally pretty great and top notch. the occasional joke posts here and there but everyone puts on their game cap when needed.

Well stated, especially the having fun part. I know there are some who don't want to read the nonsense or care for it but some of the troll stuff when the weather is boring is downright hilarious.

It's basically trying will things to happen which look bad. Trying to find ways in which it will work. 99% of forecast models could show a rain storm at D6 and one model showing potential for all snow...all the focus would be on how that one model "could verify" over what the actual situation is I mean...I'm not complaining about this, that's why we're all here and it's the purpose of the board...it's a discussion board lol. But it does I think yield in blending the line of fantasy versus reality at times.

If things unfolded as advertised, I wouldn't be surprised if we had a decent chance of throwing more moisture our way given the southwesterly flow around the stout high across the southeast. However, I think what we would really want to see is a deamplifying wave like you said...or even a strong Arctic cold front plowing southeast across the Plains which would help tap into the Gulf. What would be excellent if there was a connecting the the equatorial PAC...we would be golden I think there

good thing they probably don't have many large trees in the northern Plains or upper-Midwest (or maybe they do...never been).

I disagree with this. There would be 100 posts just showing snow maps from 50 different models and then comparing changes in the snow maps to justify any trends and then the if game on how if a,b,c,d,e,f do this it has a chance.

Was outside last night want to say it was around 9:00 or so and it was very peaceful just looking around and seeing everything covered in snow with Christmas lights...for some reason, this scenery makes it so you don't even feel the cold. All it takes is a couple inches of snow to totally change the mood.

No disagreement there, but (and maybe I am flat out wrong on this) we can't teach AI something that we don't know ourselves. For example, when it comes to physics and mathematics, AI isn't going to teach us or give us a better understanding of how atmospheric physics works and how these processes behave and evolve. Let's look at thunderstorms, for example. There are certain processes which occur during a thunderstorms life cycle that we know happen, however, we don't fully know why certain processes happen the way they do or what is the leading contributor. Tornadogenesis is one...we know the ingredients needed for tornadoes, we know how tornadoes form, but we don't know fully understand why some supercells (which look tornadic based on visual features/radar features) produce tornadoes and others don't...AI isn't going to solve something like that. AI isn't going to tell us this because we don't understand it ourselves and we don't have all the necessary data and measurements to be able to do so. But with the phone example, its learning faster because it has a basis to go on...it understands something because that something is known. There are many meteorological processes which we know exist and understand their existence, but don't fully know the why/how. AI will be a major help though in calculating mathematical/physics calculations much more quickly which will hopefully get us faster model output in the future.

Kind of explained it in a post above but I'll add more. We should be focusing on the resources needed to better what we currently have instead of just adding more tools to the toolbox. Now, if AI will be used to better the initialization/parameterization process, that would be amazing. But at the end of the day we still need better computing technology (which we have, we just need it within the field). Quantum computing is going to go a sizable way I think here. Parameterize better and improve initialization, those two alone will go a great way in forecast model accuracy and hopefully reduce inconsistency. If AI models are just going to add to the list of potential outcomes and increase uncertainty, then what good is it?