weatherwiz

3km with some violence ripping across PA tomorrow. May even see some elevated thunderstorms move across SNE tomorrow night...pretty decent MUCAPE on the 3km

I believe this does change the probabilities which designates the categories. For example, it looks like it will be more difficult now to get a high risk day which I think is a great idea because really if a high risk is issued...you want that to be held for days where widespread significant severe is going to happen. This may hopefully reduce more of the high risk "busts" we have seen. I am with you...I am definitely not bashing this either, just trying to understand it more. But with what you said I think makes sense and if that is the case and purpose I can understand it a bit better. I'm sure there is some literature on this, I've only read the little bit on the SPC site.

That's how I kind of see it. So in that tornado probability that intensity 2 area is supposed to indicate if a tornado occurs, the reasonable max intensity is EF3 and the intensity 1 area is max intensity EF2. I think though this is supposed to help local forecasters and emergency management to better communication to the public but I don't see how this helps.

I am still trying to gauge this new conditional intensity thing. But I am with you...seems odd the entire thing isn't filled in and what additional value does this have over the regular hatching? But I guess its to highlight what the "max intensity" may be. IDK...I feel like this is going to cause more uncertainty or even hype that isn't needed

First go around with an intensity 2 for tornadoes (also have it for hail in Texas). Very curious to see how this changes or enhances public communication or if it just adds confusion. I wonder what @OceanStWx thoughts on this conditional intensity addition is.

It's going to be super close WOR. Looking at some soundings from the NAM WOR you can see a more SE component to the wind but (Even though its March) if the NAM is overdoing the clouds/AM precip, it would not take much to mix out that shallow and subtle layer. Could be a day where DXR gets to like 66 and BOS 41

The NAM is also a bit more robust with clouds/precip Wednesday too

Gotta love this time of year BOS for tomorrow 6z MAV: 66 0z MET: 52 7z NBM: 62 We've reached the time of year where the NAM is as useless as ever with temperatures (unless there is a front overhead/nearby) or we have CAD.

Could see some showers with thunder develop around/after daybreak Wednesday morning on the nose of the advecting MUCAPE

Pretty crazy seeing a long-tracked tornado on the ground in Michigan with temperatures/dewpoints only into the 50's. That cell is a beast

Can't disagree with this

It's such a tease looking at that. We're so close to the warmth but the heights are totally compressed up here. This isn't a good look either in the Southeast, especially Florida where I think they are in a pretty bad drought and there are major fire concerns. But that is also setting up to what could be an extremely active March in the Great Plains there. But for here...certainly going to be several wintry mix threats.

I'm with you too...we could be setting the stage for some early April heat. For as cold and chilly we have been here...there has been some anomalous warmth off to our southwest and it's not something that has been brief spurts either. Unless something major happened to kind of move away from this across the south, the only thing which has presented us from tapping into this has been the configuration in the Arctic. Relax that and we open the gates.

Just going from memory here but one major difference between those extremely anomalous warm periods is there was tremendous support within the Arctic domain...meaning there was little or nothing to fight back again the building heights or compress them. Also, notice with those periods too is those patterns didn't really come with fronts readily advancing across the eastern third of the country...it's a much different story building heights naturally (such a a response to lowering heights upstream a.ka. west trough) versus forcing heights to build due to say a propagating front. When you get cold fronts traversing the OV and into the Northeast, more than likely there will be at least one wave developing along the front and that's what ultimately screws us in the warm sector department, particularly when the look across eastern Canada favors to squash said low.

ehhh too me that's just a byproduct of a good winter...part of having a good (or great) winter is dealing with the aftermath which is spring mud season. The remainder of this month is probably going to bring it all, some very mild days, some raw/chilly days, wintry precipitation threats, rain. Hopefully by the time we get closer to April we can make a quick transition into more pleasant weather (which still can be quite the ask)

I am not sure how I feel about this conditional intensity addition to the SPC outlooks. I understand the premise behind it but I feel like this is going to introduce a great deal of confusion. I do like the changes though which will make high risks order to become issued although that means we will never see a high risk here again

Was always very nervous about the mid-week period when looking at that configuration across Canada. It's extremely difficult this time of year here to get full blow warm frontal passages through the region. It can be easy to get carried away with seeing pretty oranges with H5 anomalies and 850 temp anomalies but there is alot that can muk up sfc warm frontal passages. This is exactly how NNE (especially elevations) can rack up end of season snowfall totals

HTF did Portland jump from 25 at the 7:00 obs to 40 at the 9:00 obs

We'll be teased with a marginal or slight risk Wednesday poking into Fairfield County

Forecast soundings for BOS are pretty crazy though...about as textbook as isothermal snow bomb you could ask for. The type of stuff where after the event happened people go, "woahhh where did this come from, nothing showed this" and do a little case study and realize...oh crap isothermal profile with strong lift...yup that will do it

I think an inch is doable but we may be just a bit too far south. I don't see tonight really being anything like the other night in terms of sleet/icing across a widespread area...probably more so for the hills.

Going to come down to lift I think. If the lift is there...BOS will be ripping a heavy, wet snow. But I think the trend has been to favor a good 3-4 hour period of heavy snow around Boston with potential for 5-7" of snow

That is getting very close to WSW stuff for BOS should the degree of lift verify. You couldn't paint a thermal profile that is any more on the line than what's being forecast but wow. I guess its great this is happening dead overnight because rates could be 1-2" per hour for a good 3-4 hours.

We have arrived to the time of year where medium range is taken with a grain of salt. Way too much going on and we're throwing into the seasonal transition into the background mix. Certainly some potential for some unseasonable warmth next week when looking aloft but looking at the llvl and sfc configuration...lots of caution flags. This isn't to say we don't sneak in a very mild day or two but I wouldn't hold my breath right now

do Cheeze Its count?