weatherwiz

Wow, I had no clue EWALL made major upgrades! https://mapwall.met.psu.edu/ewall/

We are not getting any hurricanes to sniff this latitude

I was just thinking, is it me or does it seem like the hemisphere as a whole, particularly Arctic latitudes, is very slow to begin the seasonal transition...or maybe its just a bit too early? This next part is better suited for the ENSO thread, but I don't feel good about our prospects for the winter. I guess maybe I'll go throw those thoughts in there shortly.

Sunday has a very warm look for the interior...could def see some 85-86F in the typical hot spots. Looks quite warm for the foreseeable future too as a whole (outside of the brief, cool shot) with some big daily departures.

Yup...that's a nice shot of colder air modeled.

The most "fun" and "challenging" part of this weeks forecast is tomorrow's sky cover

Felt like September absolutely flew by. Outside of the severe we had early in the month, what a boring month. But things changing quickly, leaves turning and starting to drop like flies.

No, it wasn't that. It was yellow (or like a golden brown) with the light orange body or brownish orange. But it was crawling at me...I had no choice.

The only light I keep on is just outside the back door but its not particularly bright and inside a cove (not sure what its technically called but its an overhang which connects the house with the garage.

hmmm could be those. what kind is the "common yellow house spider"?

Yeah I won't bother them if they're outside, but inside that is a different problem . But yeah the number I've seen outside, especially larger spiders is very noticeable. Actually, I've grown to not care as much if they are inside anymore but its the crawling that creeps me out. I probably should have gotten this addressed when I was a kid...no clue where it started or what sparked it but this fear of spiders is an awful thing...if I see one near me it elicits this intense response in my body. I hate it.

Is that stuff safe for dogs/cats?

I've also noticed an alarming uptick in wolf spiders outside. I hope those suckers don't manage to sneak inside houses. But I think one may have. A few weeks ago when I was lying in bed watching videos on my phone, a black spider raced out from under the covers across the bed. I jumped out of bed and killed it quickly so I didn't have a chance to see what kind of spider it was. It may have just been a jumping spider. When I drained the pool last week, the number of spiders (and some big ones) that crawled onto the pool to get away from the water was very disturbing.

I guess its spider season. My girlfriend said she killed a big yellow one that was crawling on a door yesterday, then one last night that dropped from the ceiling, and I just had one run across my desk ughhhhhhh. There must be a nest and I'm still convinced there is a nest in my car since i had 3 spiders crawl on me while driving in the span of 10 days. Frustrating

1" of rain and EF1 TOR's

TDS northeast of Rockland

There is a very weird obsession with the HREF...ever since it nailed some event a few years back (forgot what it was). But that's what forecasting is evolving into...pick a model and output source that displays beautiful visuals and construct what its showing into a "forecast".

I think the HREF is kind of meh overall. I mean there are times it does great but there are many times it way overdoes things

Once we start to get something a bit more organized we should get a better idea. The "center" has been jumping like crazy over the last day, particularly since last evening. Once concern I have though is potential for RI if this 1) gets its act together quickly and 2) If it tracks within the zone of higher OHC Doesn't mean anything for us but I would be watching extremely closely anywhere from the northeast Florida coast up to coastal NC.

Yes, you're right...I got my invests mixed up

Also AL93 is what would need to develop for any EC interest and it looks like AL94 will be the one

If anything came up the coast it would transition to a cold core system so quickly. It would lose its tropical characteristics upon getting off the Carolina coast. "Worst case" scenario is some much needed rain and probably 30-40 mph gusts, mostly at the coast. And that is even fantasy

I'm intrigued as well. Certainly something to watch, but like you said, all speculation at this point until we get something to really develop. Lots of factors shall influence that these next few days. I just hope nobody is really expecting a cat 3 here I mean extratropical, subtropical, etc. storms can certainly still be noteworthy so don't want to take away from that aspect.

And Gabrielle has taken off. RI and up to 120 mph

Doubt it would be a cane up here, waters are pretty chilly but maybe a glorified Nor'easter with gusty winds and some heavy rain and of course some high surf.