weatherwiz

In terms of Erin and how it intensified, the developing storm, processes, etc. absolutely should be discussed and talked about. What Erin did was special and it’s extremely important these processes continue being studied. But this never had a chance of making landfall. When it comes to landfalling tropical systems, particularly in the Northeast, there is a very clear and distinct weather pattern that needs to be in place. We had the exact opposite of that weather pattern. When you don’t have a prime pattern in place, these storms will re-curve. All these people out there on social media or whatever playing the “but if” game…weather doesn’t work on ifs. There are basic principles and concepts. “If the trough does this…if the high does this…if this if that, the models can change”…that’s not how this science works. Granted, it isn’t an exact science but there are still basic principles and concepts which provide the guidelines and basis. If there were going to be changes to any features or structures the pattern…those signals would exist within modeling or teleconnections and those signals were never, ever present. One run of an OP doesn’t constitute these as being present either. If anything, there was a better shot at the storm remaining on a west heading towards Florida, that would have been probable if Erin was within an environment not favorable for strengthening or organization, otherwise Erin was always going to gain latitude. there was always going to be some range as to exactly how far west Erin would get either prior to re-curving or while re-curving and it was never going to be enough to be a “close call” and that’s because there was never a pattern or feature which would have shunted it even further west. A bunch of people playing the “if game” doesn’t change what the reality was, it doesn’t change what the meteorology and physics dictated would happen.

Can’t break what we don’t get

Re-loading for Septdewber

All this hoopla around about tracking more west and south of guidance and blah blah blah and Erin is going to make the north track and re-curve within what was expected several days ago. Physics and science FTW

Agreed

It will start a more northerly headed very soon, once it starts to do so we’ll see it happen very quickly.

And we have a cat 5

This will likely start re-curving and gaining more latitude probably in the next several hours. These wobbles and what not are more likely attributed to the rapid organization of the storms structure and strength

Yup just get these storms into favorable shear with no dry air around and they just explode. When you have these storms in waters that normally warm into the 80’s and are still above average…a degree or two at this stage equates to a great deal of energy.

A friend is scheduled to go on a cruise to Bermuda later this week. Going to be close

Insane. Another trend of RI…almost have to expect with with any storm now.

With nothing to draw this to the coast and now with the RI…this will probably start to recurve even more quickly

Wasn’t it still 100 at 5 AM? Holy shit nevermind…it was 120. I didn’t hit refresh from 6z

This isn't coming near the East Coast lol. If you want to talk about "how far west it can get" well maybe that's 70W or 73W and guess what happens if it makes it there...a sharp re-curve northeast. This was never going to be a "close call" for the coast. A storm coming into 70 or 75W and then sharply recurving isn't "close". If there was a weather pattern in place where there was room for a capture...then you could say close. Outside of a weather pattern to bring them up the coast they re-curve out to sea...that is the "climo". You can't call that close lol. Close implies there was a chance...there never was.

Already not liking the darker earlier mornings and the earlier sunsets...both very noticeable now and it's getting depressing. Not looking forward to the dark by 4:00...unless its snowing out. The thought of having a a snowstorm ongoing and its like 4:30 PM and already dark but its so peaceful and calm with heavy snow is very soothing.

HRRR yesterday advertised this well, the HRRR was just a bit more southwest. It handled yesterday well too from the day prior. It’s redeemed itself a bit lol

I’d watch Abington and Whitman for potential microburst

Great shot of the stuff south of Boston

2020 had that supercell that ripped across southwester/southern CT (think august 26th or 27th). Outside of some very localized damage it's been a bore since the 2018 event. Was it two summers ago (maybe three) where we had a decent stretch I think in July with storms...nothing crazy but it was active.

The farther west the track, the sharper the recurve

Just going to have to wait for Erin to begin strengthening...but I am still curious if once that happens it will end up ingesting more of this SAL. I think one saving grace for Erin right now is because it isn't overly strong and wrapped its not getting t, much, if any into the center. But its been doing much better with convection today, not a terrible looking structure but getting there.

OP is an outlier AWT...but the spread is insane

I agree, if Erin can get going...she will take off.

I will be willing to bet the euro OP is of the most western outlier when it comes to the EPS. but I will be curious to see what the mean is on the Euro. We may see some heavily skewed west members but willing to bet this is a major outlier

noticing alot of models start to crank Erin around Puerto Rico but are environmental conditions really going to favor that? Dry air/SAL I think is still going to be an issue and may even have some stronger shear to the north?