calculus1
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Everything posted by calculus1
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WSW wording. Everything but the kitchen sink possible.
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WSW accompanied with a new probabilistic snowfall map:
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Brad P's update. He breaks out the soil temperatures graphic!
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12Z GFSV16 appears to have legs for the early week system. Still evolving though...
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Here's the most recent meteogram for KHKY adjusted for 6:1 snow ratios (rather than the default 11:1). Based on this site, two inches or so also appears to be a good blend of the other models for my location.
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Recent SREF plumes for KHKY. I removed the highest three (each above 7 inches) and the lowest three outputs (each below 1 inch). That results in a mean of 4.17 inches for KHKY. Cut that in half, and two inches or so sounds about right for my locale, I would think. Let's see how it goes:
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That's living in the lee of the Apps... Argh! To be fair, the 3KNAM looked to have better potential for the lee than than did the 12K, but it ended at hour 60. Again, the onset of this event for areas outside the mountains continues to be delayed, while the duration may actually be lengthened a bit.
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NWS GSP's overnight thoughts...
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Is it just me, or does this event seem to have slowed down a bit? It now seems like the bulk of the precipitation will come during the daylight hours, according to the GFS this morning.
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Afternoon disco from GSP:
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Afternoon disco from GSP:
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I see what you did there...
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Yeah, I'll gladly take another half foot on Monday. =)
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Several of you have really wonky perceptions of where the mountains actually are in NC. A lot of the western piedmont of North Carolina (essentially north and west of Charlotte) actually do quite well on this model run of the ECMWF-HiRes. Plus, there is a decent snow signature in a horizontal line from Hickory to Raleigh. This looks pretty good to me, with round 2 just emerging for early next week.
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What is your location? The Blue Ridge Escarpment is a large area. Sent from my moto e5 supra using Tapatalk
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Drove up to Blowing Rock to have a White Christmas this early afternoon. Sunny and 28 in Lenoir but snow squalls and 13 in Blowing Rock, a short 10 miles away. Roads were pretty bad up there too. It's amazing the difference in weather in that short distance. 30 back here at home in Hickory, which is an incredibly cold temp for 3 PM in the afternoon under full sun. Merry Christmas to all! Sent from my moto e5 supra using Tapatalk
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Snowing in Black Mountain now. I imagine Marion will flip soon. Sent from my moto e5 supra using Tapatalk
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Your pictures are beautiful, Buckethead. I totally need to look in to moving to your neighborhood in several years. A man can dream anyway... [emoji16] Sent from my moto e5 supra using Tapatalk
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@Bevo, I am not yet old enough to share your sentiment. And, not sure if I ever will be. I'm going to be alongside @strongwxnc enjoying my almost two feet of snow, should I be blessed to see it fall from the sky.
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Yeah, I think the serious freezing rain is going to be limited to the extreme edge of the Blue Ridge, in this particular storm. I just don't think we're going to get too much once you get away from there. You're going to need to be west of Marion, west of Lenoir, west of Wilkesboro, etc. to see any significant icing from this storm, IMO. The Hi-Res NAM really highlights that. I will be surprised if I have anything more than a little glistening in the treetops here in Hickory.
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Those are some crazy totals you guys are posting now! Over 10 inches for Buckethead?! 15 inches on the Skyway?!
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Such beautiful pictures from you guys up in the mountains. Thanks for allowing us to live vicariously through your photos and videos. I am incredibly jealous...
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And Hurricane Sandy did the trick several years ago.
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Check out ASU's Fall Color report and map for updated leaf conditions: https://biology.appstate.edu/fall-colors
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You just beat me, Strong. [emoji16] 42.8 F here. Sent from my moto e5 supra using Tapatalk
