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Floydbuster

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Everything posted by Floydbuster

  1. Floydbuster
    Yeah talk about a ghost town.
  2. Floydbuster
    Is it just me, or is there a tremendous lack of upper level wind shear for July 15th?
  3. Floydbuster
    Don't be surprised if we get a Charley-type major August 10-20th based on pattern.
  4. Floydbuster
    Could have been 2011 maybe? Hurricane Irene?
  5. Floydbuster
    Holy crap. That moisture prediction is basically Hurricane Ivan's track.
  6. Floydbuster
    Barely windy here in Summit County. We were anticipating 60 mph gusts.
  7. Floydbuster
    Good. There was some guy who posted computer models and showed pressures near 966 mb over the Great Lakes.
  8. Floydbuster
    Since I'm less seasoned in winter weather, what do the odds of snow look like for Northern Ohio? I have people going nuts thinking a blizzard is coming in 48-72 hrs.
  9. Floydbuster
    You and Josh may be interested in this: https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/2007JCLI1772.1 Discussing return periods for sub-900 mb hurricanes in the United States. "The 1935 Labor Day Florida Keys storm was the most severe in our dataset. With a 265-yr wind speed return period and a 102-yr central pressure return period, it presses the fitted model boundaries. We believe this is due in part to the extreme southern latitude of this landfalling storm. Another storm of this intensity would likely again require a very southern landfalling latitude, with the Florida Keys or the Brownsville, Texas, region being the most likely hosts." Very interesting. That means, according to "return periods", a sub-900 mb U.S. landfall should come around again in about 10-20 years. But I'm also envisioning a Brownsville landfall of a storm of that intensity. I picture a pinhole eyewall on a morning visibile crossing South Padre Island. I can picture Josh now, a big white beard, tweeting from Port Isabel.
  10. Floydbuster
    Comparing Josh's vid and this Mexico Beach Michael vid, they both in my opinion, show sustained Category 5 winds. The "whiteout" conditions in both storms is very similar to the infamous gas station video in Charlotte Harbor during Hurricane Charley, where the tiny and fast moving eyewall briefly produced sustained Category 4 winds and a gust to Cat 5 within several seconds which destroyed the gas station. The "whiteout" conditions are seen in that video as well, and Charley was 145 mph by the time winds hit Charlotte Harbor. The only thing I disagree with Josh about is that Dorian is the cherry on his hurricane sundae. I think Dorian may just be a thick layer of fudge. Just wait until he's in the eye of the next 1935. (I suspect the winds in the '35 storm were actually stronger than 185 mph, and the motion was about 6 kts in a tiny eye with 892 mb pressure).
  11. Floydbuster
    Because when I thought the ridging would break down during Frances and Ivan and Dean and Felix and Ike and Irma...the ridging was stronger than the models depicted. So when the models showed ridging so strong Dorian got to the panhandle, I thought "Perhaps they're underestimating again and Dorian will head even further west than that."
  12. Floydbuster
    I can't believe the failure of computer models this past month. I'm not just speaking about this Dorian situation, I'm speaking about how 10 days ago the models showed us ending August with 0 tropical storms, and in the last ten days, we had two storms, one hurricane, and one hurricane of 150 mph bearing down the Bahamas. I almost think that "phantom storms" on the old models 10 years ago atleast gave us an idea of upcoming activity. I remember the long-range GFS continuously showed a long-tracked hurricane coming off Africa for weeks. One would hit New England, one would hit Mexico, one would hit Miami. That phantom on the model eventually became Hurricane Dean.
  13. Floydbuster
    I'm listening to the Police/Fire/EMS dispatch and some of the addresses of severe/catastrophic damage are right in downtown, literally within 1000-2000 feet of the Lewis & Clark Monument, Missouri State Capitol building dome, and the Missouri State Penitentiary.
  14. Floydbuster
    Per Twitter, some residents saying that the twister that went through downtown Jefferson City is a "Joplin-style" event. Sounds dire.
  15. Floydbuster
    Well, according to the re-analysis project, there are several Category 4 storms close to Category 5 strength at landfall: Pre-records: 1846 Hurricane may have been at Cat 5 intensity near Florida Keys. August 1856 - "Last Island" - 150 mph/934 mb August 1886 - "Indianola" - 150 mph/925 mb
  16. Floydbuster
    I have to agree. The lack of cold fronts and troughs also contributed to Hurricane Florence's unlikely westward progression from Africa northwest into the middle of the Atlantic Ocean, to an eventual landfall in North Carolina.
  17. Floydbuster
    I suspect Hurricane Isidore (2002) peaked as a 115 kt Category 4 hurricane. Operationally, it never got higher than 110 kt, despite an astounding satellite appearance, high dvorak numbers, and a pressure of 934 mb. But I suspect it reached Category 4 strength prior to landfall in the Yucatan.
  18. Floydbuster
    Still very little. It's dark but I can see small flakes falling at a good clip but at first glance outside, it's still calm here in Stow. Very strange. We had a couple inches but nowhere near how bad it was between 2pm and 5pm.
  19. Floydbuster
    Momentarily, the snow has completely stopped here in Stow. Not even blowing. Just nothing. Calm.
  20. Floydbuster
    I work in Summit County, I'm considering calling off if it's too bad. I don't have to make that decision for a few hours. How heavy will the snow be around 3-3:30pm, ya think?
  21. Floydbuster
    Worst snow yet here in Stow. The video lighting makes it appear less worse than it is. video-1489532137.mp4
  22. Floydbuster
    I swear, it still looks like you can see the grass to some extent. It has snowed since I last posted, but not too much. Maybe 2'' since the last six hours.
  23. Floydbuster
    Yeah I'm near Stow and still no precipitation at all as of 3:35am.
  24. Floydbuster
    Here in Southern Summit County...nothing yet. Looks very clear outside. If it doesn't deliver decently, folks will call this one a bust.
  25. Floydbuster
    As more knowledgeable in hurricanes than tornadoes...how does the Outbreak of 2011 rank compared to the Outbreak of '74?
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