Floydbuster

They didn't have a plane there at the time of landfall. The eye started to lose it's luster right at landfall, but based on the observed damage, my guess is that this came ashore as a Category 5. In fact, I'm guessing the peak intensity offshore was higher than the operational 165 mph. It probably was about 175 mph offshore, and came ashore in the 160-165 mph range. A devastating Category 5 strike on Mexico.

I think the smaller the radius of maximum sustained winds, the most concentrated the wind gusts are. Not to mention the lower the pressure, you wind up with a steep pressure fall the smaller the eye is.

Wow!

I agree! I wouldn't be surprised if Tammy makes a run at Category 3 strength.

Hurricane Otis is the strongest hurricane to strike the Pacific coastline of Mexico on record, and the only one to make landfall at Category 5 intensity.

000 WTPZ63 KNHC 250626 TCUEP3 Hurricane Otis Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182023 125 AM CDT Wed Oct 25 2023 ...CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE OTIS MAKES LANDFALL NEAR ACAPULCO MEXICO... Satellite imagery indicates that Otis has made landfall near Acapulco, Mexico around 125 AM CDT (0625 UTC). The maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 165 mph (270 km/h), and the minimum central pressure is estimated at 923 mb (27.26 inches). Otis is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. SUMMARY OF 125 AM CDT...0625 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.8 99.9W ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH...270 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...923 MB...27.26 INCHES $$ Forecaster Brown/Kelly

BULLETIN Hurricane Otis Intermediate Advisory Number 12A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182023 100 AM CDT Wed Oct 25 2023 ...EYE OF CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE OTIS ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR ACAPULCO MEXICO... ...CATASTROPHIC DAMAGE LIKELY WHERE THE CORE MOVES ONSHORE... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.7N 99.8W ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM SSE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH...270 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...923 MB...27.26 INCHES

Everyone missed this. No model support for this, no recon scheduled for landfalls, no reliable radar sites, no storm chasers. This is 2023, not 1923. I think this hurricane will remind all of us meteorological aficionados to remain humble.

Good grief!

Sadly, he was caught too off guard and won't be chasing Otis. Damn shame, too. I can't imagine, but like I told him on Twitter, it's Mother Nature's way of keeping him humble.

000 WTPZ63 KNHC 250400 TCUEP3 Hurricane Otis Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182023 1100 PM CDT Tue Oct 24 2023 ...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE OTIS STILL STRENGTHENING AS IT NEARS THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... Recent satellite data indicate that Otis continues to strengthen. The maximum sustained winds are now estimated to be near 165 mph (270 km/h) with higher gusts. Otis is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Otis is forecast to remain a category 5 hurricane through landfall overnight. SUMMARY OF 1100 PM CDT...0400 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.3 99.7W ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SSE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH...270 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...923 MB...27.26 INCHES

Josh Morgerman said that he was caught off guard and wouldn't be able to chase Otis. But he's been silent for over 8 hrs on Twitter...and I wonder if he did a quickie and is headed down there. It's possible, he's one of the best.

I just find it hard to believe that a major metropolitan city of one million people wouldn't have a radar site in 2023.

I thought Acapulco had a radar site, but I've been searching too and unable to find it.

Ditto on the Western Caribbean. The ensembles of the EURO and GEFS continue to show low pressure around the first week of November.

Holy cow look at that symmetry!

After Philippe made it all the way to Barbuda, I became slightly more bullish on Tammy making it further west. I often find myself a little more bullish in general with regards to October hurricanes. I've seen many systems struggle until they near the Caribbean and then find a more safe harbor for development. Iris 2001, Lili 2002, Tomas 2010, etc.

I thought the name of this thread was a little imbecilic anyways. I knew this could be a hurricane and could get close to the islands. I don't know why so many were so immediately negative on development chances. The wave was strong, model guidance supported development, and we've had 20 named storms this hurricane season.

Quite a nasty lashing for Barbuda, still an obvious far cry from Irma

Hurricane Tammy has strengthened a bit up to 80 mph as the core gets close to Martinique and Dominica.

Seems like four scenarios thus far: 1. Strong major hurricane (like Lee) taking track north of islands 2. Strong major hurricane striking islands 3. Weaker storm/hurricane (Like Nigel and Philippe) taking track north of islands 4. Weaker storm (Like Bret) striking islands

Wow do those EURO ensembles make Invest 94L a monster hurricane in the Caribbean.