OceanStWx

Already hit 34 kt at PWM with some of this convective stuff.

Testing out the merger of the HRRR, HREF, NAM, RAP. Definitely not a final product yet.

Actually mentioned something very similar in my AFD update. The 00z raobs had about 65 kt at 925 at MHX, and 55 kt at WAL. The NAM forecast for the same hour was about 10 kt too high. But the RAP is pretty close. The RAP still brings a LLJ around 100 kt into the Gulf of Maine tomorrow, so that would give me a few hours midday of 50 kt gusts around the office. Typically if the coast is going to get high wind warning, we also rip at the office.

More often than not, the raw gust output runs hot. Despite the scale being in knots, you're probably better off considering that to be mph, which is a 15% reduction.

No, not yet. I'm the swing shift tonight. But not looking great for the mountains before the Christmas holiday week.

If it's not HWW, you're forecasting under 30 mph. BOX forecasters on the night shift:

What do you care what product you have if you gust to 55 mph? ORH has never topped 61 knots with a reliable gust, so it's not like you're going to gust to 70 mph.

Those river mouths and bays have to create some weird microclimates for wind gusts, but it should blow pretty good around there.

It's ORH season.

The text rounds off to the nearest 5 mph. So 50 mph or 55 mph. Anyway, I like the see the mixing height intercepting 60 kt before I bank on 50 kt surface gusts, you never mix down 100% of the top of the mixed layer. Only about half the guidance I see in Bufkit shows that for BDL. So I could argue it either way. Seems reasonable to have an advisory, and increase the winds slightly.

HWW isn't 55 mph. The way the graphic to text works, you might be talking increasing wind gusts from 51 mph to 53 mph.

They didn't though.

Pretty notable how long the duration of potentially strong winds are around here. The LLJ almost pivots rather than sweeping through, so it's nearly all day the 18z HRRR is forecasting 45+ knots at PWM.

What still blows me away, is that the 1998 ice storm bought us like 15 years of radar coverage before tree blockage became an issue.

PWM kicked up a sea breeze yesterday.

They looked great a week ago too.

Worst of both worlds!

Another thing to note about winds, it's not just that things shifted east but also that the low is currently around 993 mb. Quite a bit weaker than models 48 hours ago, and the trend has been for a less amplified system. So it's farther east and weaker (meaning the 925 jet is likely less than the 90-95 kt).

Ultimately that will happen. The NAM is going to go away, and the HRRR and RAP will merge into the RFS that will run out to 60 hours.

There's also a modeling cliff around 24 hours. You have guidance like the HRRR, RAP, ARW, etc that don't go much beyond that. So issuing warnings/advisories before you get to those modeling ranges can leave you wondering what happened when the damming is all of a sudden stronger than the GFS or Euro was saying.

Oh sure, the modeling three days ago looked great for wind, but that's my point. It was just a snapshot in time. A watch made sense, but we have trouble holding watches until we're truly confident on impacts. Forecasting wind gusts in stable environments is hard enough without trying to do it with 36 hours lead time.

It was clear yesterday that wind was not going to be a big threat anymore. The difficulty was that most offices had already made their wind headline decisions the night or day before. Really hard to take a warning or advisory down with 24 hours left to go. I do think we (as in the weather industry) has a bit of a confidence problem. we are confident right now, in this snapshot in time, that something will happen - but what about when the models shift in 6 or 12 hours? Speaking for GYX now, if we had waited another 12 hours to make the wind headline decisions, we would've seen the threat slipping east.

It's definitely doing the messenger shuffle east. 15z HRRR a tick east of 12z.