OceanStWx

EPS EFI is pretty juiced. Good news is that the flooding in Greece was like an 8 on this index, so it is unlikely to be that bad. GEFS has a pretty good signal for >90th percentile mean QPF as well.

As long as Dendrite gets the blame for my bad calls too.

Closed low, good forcing, strong east component to mid level winds, lots of moisture.

Pretty impressive to see a HREF mean of 3-4 inches in 24 hours. The max totals usually do a pretty good job of picking out the max reported amount (duh), but even falling a few inches short would be

We average about 6 storm warnings (48 kt) per year, so I would say we have quite a few more chances to top that.

Early prep for winter backlash disappointment.

Kilometers per hour?

You really could've punted when it was 1000 miles east of Puerto Rico. From that point forward the probabilities of a New England landfall based on storm position haven't really changed. To get probabilities much above 1 in 4, you really have to scrape HAT.

Wouldn't shock me. It's kind of a waste of computer resources at this point.

I think much of the effort is pouring in ensembles. Improving those and creating new tools for visualization. Increasingly I think deterministic models are becoming just another ensemble member which can ping around between the goal posts. NCEP is moving towards a paradigm with a 60 hour hi-res model and beyond that moving more towards the ensemble space.

TC, Bob made landfall as a tropical storm, but hurricane is Gerda.

It gets wild on a day like today too. Which storm do you deep dive on first?

It's a tough spot for radar coverage. You're talking maybe 4-5000 ft elevation of the lowest radar beam, so there's never a guarantee it's reaching the ground the same way it looks on radar.

I would say more over-warned in area than in severity. Usually the warning text is pretty accurate for the max expected hail/wind anywhere in the warning, but it's usually such a localized area.

I can remember sitting at an intersection in Sea Isle City, NJ during a storm 30 years ago and right across the street a bolt hit a condo and blew back the top of the roof. Went from six to midnight.

Western Kansas, utterly breathless 2 months during spring, toaster bath the rest of the year.

It won't be long before I'm building something like this for myself. I'm up to 80 sq ft in beds, and another 100 or so in a corner garden mainly for flowers and fruit trees.

Just using climo tracks a storm at Lee's position has about a 25% chance of hitting land anywhere in the US at any intensity, dropping to about 15% for a hurricane, and 10% for a major. If you want to talk CT specifically, 5% chance of hitting at any intensity. The interesting thing is that the probabilities of a New England landfall of any intensity don't start to increase about 10-15% until a storm is near the coast north of HAT. Also the old adage at BOX was that they don't worry about a tropical system until it's in the Bahamas, and there is a little pocket of 20% north of the Bahamas. I would say a 1 out of 5 chance of a landfall 3-4 days away is a good time to start the briefings.

Hope nobody uninstalled the multi-ply TP from the bathroom.

Mine has pretty much done all its work in the last month. June just hit pause on everything.

10/1 to 9/30 It tries to capture the time period so that the surface water is attributable to the same water year's precipitation (i.e. snowmelt is complete). For our purposes it does mean that the majority of the snowfall season is contained in the water year (except maybe MWN and places like that).