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OceanStWx

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Everything posted by OceanStWx

  1. OceanStWx
    I think we’re going to need a pretty good post mortem on the season. We were lights out through January, but we’ve derailed to the point that I don’t think our stats are that great currently. Caveat that I haven’t run the numbers yet, but the false alarm has gotten away from us. A couple causes could be several experiments we’re running this winter. WPC QPF, NBM running through a forecast builder, etc. They can lead you astray if you don’t know how/aren’t comfortable editing.
  2. OceanStWx
    Once the flakes start flying, we’ll steal snow from everybody.
  3. OceanStWx
    Yeah I’m hearing the roars we usually get when we’re in the upper 40s.
  4. OceanStWx
    4.3” at 8 pm. Let’s get another inch or two for some
  5. OceanStWx
    You’re going to need a Coop to measure it, so there needs to be one in the most impacted area. And then you’ll need minimal compaction as most Coops only measure once in the morning. But if they were diligent about it and measured without clearing they can reported their greatest depth of new snow, even if it compacts before 7 am.
  6. OceanStWx
    One thing you’ll just about never see is elevation dependent ratios. This event would’ve been a great case for sampling elevations below a certain value and drilling down ratios. But an NBM will never do that. Most models just show ratios until just above the surface.
  7. OceanStWx
    The weird thing is we get harped on for data quality all the time by them, but it’s impossible to change data once it’s in their system (hence the harping).
  8. OceanStWx
    Max T would probably be very similar, as Kuchera looks at the max T below 500 mb.
  9. OceanStWx
    Should be any minute, but I’m just a sick leave bystander today.
  10. OceanStWx
    I believe it’s two different ways of calculating lift, one from the 2005 paper and the other from 2011.
  11. OceanStWx
    Congrats Dendrite.
  12. OceanStWx
    Well there’s a big difference between being wrong on accums and wrong on ptype. All accum maps are garbage really, unless we get a pure all snow event.
  13. OceanStWx
    There was a really strong elevation signal on guidance leading up to this. That seems like it’s mostly going to be on track. Lower elevation is running into trouble because models struggle to really hammer ratios down. I’m probably like 5:1, and there’s no model out there that will incorporate that as part of their forecast. Cobb can do a fair job, has PWM around 5-7:1 the rest of the event.
  14. OceanStWx
    There’s still plenty of modeled lift left. There wasn’t much accumulation forecast prior to 18z (1-2” range for your area). The forecast still has 5-7” left, so you’ve really just lost the high end amount at this point.
  15. OceanStWx
    Well everyone in my house has been throwing up all over themselves for the last two days, only fair that some models do too.
  16. OceanStWx
    1.3” here. It’s been mostly light snow here today, visibility has never really taken a nosedive. But the 6 hourly forecasts still have 4-6” and 2-3” for the rest of the event, so we could be more or less on track.
  17. OceanStWx
    Nothing drastic, general look to vorticity appears right across guidance (but that's to be expected at hour 00). But guidance does seem to have initialized too high on heights for the vort max across southern Iowa. Ensembles don't seem to be all that sensitive to that specific feature though. Not sure it is playing that large a role.
  18. OceanStWx
    Well now we're getting into the fun nowcasting. Start looking at WV and seeing which models are closest to reality on placement of vorticity features. Obviously you can find the rotation of the upper lows themselves, but vort maxes will present as drying immediately upstream of the center (think ascent ahead and subsidence behind).
  19. OceanStWx
    This is what happens when you auto-generate images. It's winter precip onset, so it's probably something like when snow becomes 50% PoP. So you nail it that the higher elevations flip first and then it gradually works towards the lower elevations and coast, giving it the blocky look. Now the color table is trash, since it duplicates colors.
  20. OceanStWx
    Any temp criteria was ditched long ago. Wind and vis, nothing more, nothing less.
  21. OceanStWx
    "Heavy wet snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 12 to 18 inches. Winds gusting as high as 55 mph." Whether it is or it isn't remains to be seen, but I'm not sure what would result from this forecast besides a blizzard.
  22. OceanStWx
  23. OceanStWx
    One of the problems with the WSSI is that there isn't much more going into snow load than temp and wind. So put your temp near 32 and crank the winds and it will spit out extreme. Like there is no factor in there for previous snowfall that may still be on your roof.
  24. OceanStWx
    The maps usually get snowier.
  25. OceanStWx
    It's just a weird look to me when you have essentially the same 250 mb and 500 mb look between the Euro and NAM.
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