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OceanStWx

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Everything posted by OceanStWx

  1. OceanStWx
    Anecdotally, I think one outcome of increasing resolution of modeling is that as we near the ability to resolve convection it plays havoc with other fields. Yes, in a region of intense thunderstorms the surface pressure will be lower, but it will not take over as the dominant center unless the upper levels support it.
  2. OceanStWx
    I would say the NAM at least has a surface low where I would expect it to be based on 500 mb.
  3. OceanStWx
    It's a bit red flaggy for me. You got the low well east, but chasing convection. Now that CAN happen, but it's always a good idea to check whether it makes sense. Upper dynamics will ultimately drive the ship. There is vorticity out there, and you can trace it back to the southern stream, but that looks a little like convective artifact to me. The real intense upper forcing will be closer to the tip of the next vort max to the west.
  4. OceanStWx
    For reference, WPC sends the local WFO the whole distribution of their super ensemble for snowfall. Then the WFO forecasts snowfall, and this value becomes the mode of that WPC distribution (thus shifting the WPC forecast if it needs it). That sets the 90th/10th maps. Is their super ensemble the best? No. Snowfall falls outside the 90/10 range often enough, but that’s more so a limitation of the models going into it.
  5. OceanStWx
    Just be aware that the zones don’t mention accumulation after the third period.
  6. OceanStWx
    Are you talking like literal shit, in Moosup?
  7. OceanStWx
    Modeling is kind of a mess with that too. It's a firehose of vorticity from the Pac north of Hawaii. Euro uses one to pump the PNA up enough to the let the northern stream dig, while the GFS focuses on a wave that's a little too late to do the same. We should be chucking dropsondes from the JFK non stop to HNL.
  8. OceanStWx
    Interesting look to ensemble sensitivity - top variance is surface low strength followed by location. The location is very much tied to the relative strengths of the northern and southern streams. Looking for a coherent feature to track back, you kind of lose it around 24 to 36 hours. So there may still be some time before this is locked.
  9. OceanStWx
    Total snow depth maps over here like Could be a thump outside of 495, but oof 21" at 10:1 in ORH equating out to 6 on the ground.
  10. OceanStWx
    I haven't worried about the 540 line since Will was teaching me how to do keg stands in Ithaca.
  11. OceanStWx
    Sunday Funday at the Wood's.
  12. OceanStWx
    It's a little hard to see, but the pattern in the bottom right is higher pressure off the coast and lower over the Upper Midwest. This is the EPS, but the GEFS suggest the same theme. Higher PNA heights and lower heights downstream of the trof result in lower pressures off the coast (in this example we what the opposite of what is shown in the reds and blues).
  13. OceanStWx
    It appears most sensitive to the two ridges, weakening Southeast ridge and developing PNA ridge.
  14. OceanStWx
    I think notably, this isn't a case of EPS vs GEFS with one inland and the other staying offshore. This is similar means across all ensemble suites, but individual members are either inland or stay offshore. So I feel like that gives me greater confidence that this is two possible tracks based on pattern rather than pick the model of the day kind of deal.
  15. OceanStWx
  16. OceanStWx
    Based on 00z suite, it's more like the mean of all the ensembles is not the best forecast, that more likely we'll see something run through SNE or stay outside 40/70.
  17. OceanStWx
    The combo of CMC, EPS, GEFS is a nice mean low position. Digging deeper clustering shows a pretty good split. We're not dancing around the same location, but there are either inland runners or outside the benchmark. Like a 63/37 split at the moment. Runners are popping up due to either an overpowering trof, or a pumped up northwest Atlantic ridge. The sliders are just a more progressive trof. Shouldn't really surprise anyone at this range, but I wouldn't be shocked to see some moves north.
  18. OceanStWx
    Pulled 10.6" at 9.5:1 for the event, 18" on the ground. We're pushing high 20s for depth across much of the area (GYX 25"), I saw a 42" in the Ossipees.
  19. OceanStWx
    Could say that about most winters. 700 mb goodies always deliver. Total snow globe right now.
  20. OceanStWx
    Well 6 hours of that has already fallen. Maybe Pit2 can bag another 2-3 as this final band drops southeast.
  21. OceanStWx
    I like the cloud tops cooling over Maine, but the end is in sight for that back across central NH. After 18z I don't expect much additional accumulation.
  22. OceanStWx
    Well you have the upper low moving through there now, but ALB also has unique local effects like Mohawk Valley convergence. You have north winds at ALB, east winds off the Taconics, and west winds down the Mohawk Valley. That can enhanced their snowfall on the trailing end of systems like this.
  23. OceanStWx
    RAP handling it pretty well. Just kind of melts the lift east over the next few hours. Best rates should be just on the cold side of this (since lift it probably maxed above this level).
  24. OceanStWx
    I didn't see a lot of congrats Dendrite being tossed around for the CCB, it was always the eastern areas most likely to bag the goods. It's probably even a little farther south than I thought. I was expecting Kittery, but it's looking closer to the Merrimack.
  25. OceanStWx
    NSFW at work right now. Visibility is probably around 800 feet, pretty close to 1/8 mile +SN.
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