OceanStWx

Models have 850s warming starting this next hour, 925s by 08z. So on pure CAA, we're probably done. If anyone can manage to decouple before sunrise though, lookout.

Ties February record.

It's the Coast Guard photo of the coyote running across the bay for me.

Yeah all wind chill records are going to be a bit dodgy, but it looks like MWN got down to -108 at one point. Daily Mail over the UK was running stories on the coldest US wind chill, we've gone global!

Don't have info from the AWOS, but the CWSU last hit -11 on 1/7/2018

-50 is actually the all time record (1885). -47 is only what has been digitized. I don't think there's much hope of hitting -50, given that temps aloft start warming from here on out, but impressive nonetheless.

Not sure the front has even crossed you yet. Should be shortly though. There was a wind shift with the snow showers, but the real temp drop didn't start until the second boundary passed.

A little. But mostly I'm saying that in the absence of any other processes going on, just mixing down the forecast temps aloft (which should easily get done) it's still some impressive wind chills.

The 925s are impressive. If we can pull the -30 to -35 temps at that level, we'll mix them down with the CAA. With 925 heights around 725-750 m you can tack on about 7 degrees of warming to get it to the surface. That puts a lot of places in NNE -10 to -20 with winds 25 knots or so. I would say a conservative forecast up here would be a low of -10 and 20 knot winds. That's a wind chill of nearly -37. Last time PWM did -35 or colder was 1981.

I just planted a Redhaven this past spring, so this is the first winter. I think it's well sited. I don't radiate all that well being on a hillside, it's got a windbreak to the northwest and west from the natural vegetation, and it's right next to a slope on the west side that really prevents severe reflection off the snowpack. I flirt with 6A, so I should be fine, but I don't want to disappoint the kids like when the flew off with our first blueberry crop.

Thought that was Maple Hollow at first.

My gut is that Fri night cold is being overplayed (wind chills will still be brutal, talking strictly air temp). CAA mixing should keep things from challenging records. Sat seems to be trending a bit colder as the core of the cold is delayed by a few hours. MEX is now single digits at PWM for a high, which hasn't been done in 5 years. Then Sat night I think has the potential to be the coldest for some places. High hasn't totally left town yet and that inversion is going to allow temps to drop from a pretty low launching pad as is. Might be -20 at HIE/BML before midnight.

EPS and NAEFS are both outside of their model climate, this is a less than once every 10 years event based on forecasts. 90th-10th range for PWM Sat is 12 to 0. Even a high colder than 10 hasn't happened since 2018. Some wild ranges for Sat night though. 25-35 degree spreads between 90th-10th. I'm leaning 10th though. WAA aloft setting the inversion early and winds calm. Feels like a classic model bust as it moves the air mass out too quickly at the surface.

Not now kids, daddy's busy.

It's also possible somebody accidentally input the PWM total for GYX. At home I had 4 inches of snow on the board near 1 AM, but it had been pouring rain for nearly an hour. So I did alright before the flip. In the end I lost 1 inch in pack by 7 AM (11").

This is when we have to make our hay. That mixing has stalled and we have the lift, so if it's going to tip over warning criteria it will be in the next few hours. It looks like it will be hard to stop the mid level front after 06z.

Well that CC is getting chewed up a bit as it moves into central NH.

The snow starts sooner thank you think, but so does the sleet.

Not a bad eyeball there, current motion has it about 1 hour 45 min. I think a good chunk of our warnings are going tits up.

As the rain/snow line creeps ever close to my backyard, I can hang my hat on the Airport Weather Warning I issued for MHT. At 2342z, I issued one saying that snow will mix with or change to sleet/freezing rain as early as 02z. The 201z SPECI reported PL. Honestly remarkably well modeled and well behaved mixing line.

-PLSN in the 201z SPECI

It's subtle but you can see it on CC. It's about splitting the peninsula in half, pushing through Chebeague now. And on BOX's radar that CC line is steady on the march north. The high is just in a bad position to hold it off. You don't want the ridge axis east of the mountains.