OceanStWx

RIP

That pattern doesn't begin until he breaks all the kids' Christmas toys.

Pretty sure when we said Cold Season Thread we meant snow not cold, flu, and COVID season, but I guess that's all the action we got. I was sure I had it this last go around after Thanksgiving, but nope just the flu my kids brought home from school. Spiked a 102 fever and had the worst aches I've ever had that night, and I'm just now getting rid of the cough 4-5 weeks later.

They were iced in? My country club usually does a skating rink on the pond in front of the 18th green, but this year they're doing a New Years scramble.

SFM the last 3 hours: 37, 52, 43

Me briefing the mid shift on temperatures tonight...

Me and mid shift actually just ran through PWM's history with December being a dud (less than 4 inches like this season). Surprisingly 9 of 24 seasons featured above normal snowfall. Now the caveat being that 4 of those 9 had big Novembers to help the season total. 1957-58, 1992-93, 1931-32, 1932-33, and 1887-88 were the 5 examples of poor Nov-Dec combos that still finished above normal.

Neighboring offices pushing us to go with higher percentiles of NBM guidance for high temps, but I've played this game before.

That was the first reaction I had upon hearing the news, can't be starting long hikes in the winter that late in the day.

Yep. No idea when the FAA plans to fix it. Given that they don't really care about temp for flight purposes, it could be a while.

I find the faux-ish outrage about this to be something special. Like in 2021 TX, do we honestly think less than 30 days into office Biden closed all the fossil plants in TX? No, it was failures of existing power sources. Similar to TN now. I would hazard a guess that a switch to natural gas and limited supply is what is driving this.

There's a 12:30 pm LSR out of Edgartown of 9 inches, so low double digit lollis seems about right.

It's tough too because the ocean is pretty vast, good ocean/lake effect needs land nearby to focus the lift within one or two dominant bands. That's why this is performing so well. LI/CT shores are confining the band to its current location and it just waffles with the wind direction. But in big arctic outbreaks you see the streamers from cold air pouring off the continent but they rarely organize into single dominant bands, they organize into smaller convective rolls. You can get some that are more dominant, but usually because they originate from a water feature bounded by land (Penobscot Bay, NY Bight, Narragansett Bay, etc). There's a reason the LES from Lake Michigan is more potent on a north wind vs. a west wind, and it's not just the longer fetch. The band parallel to the land features is just more focused.

No, it was on 8 ft concrete pads sunk into the ground. But it managed to pull one up completely.

As far as I know, the data is gone during the outage, but we had a 51 mph before the ASOS went down.

FWIW, the EF Scale suggests the lower bound threshold for cell tower collapse is about 115 mph. Plausawa Hill is 1000 ft, plus the 190 ft tower gets you almost to 1200 ft. Model forecasts around 1200 ft for CON were around 70 kt sustained, so I don't think winds were quite that high.

RIP to that transmitter. Sounds like our stuff may have been on that one.

Any Concord area weenies with a weather radio? We can't reach Plausawa Hill transmitter (162.4) and we're hearing rumors that the tower itself might have come down in the winds. Can anyone hear audio on that frequency?

I could see that being a better argument in like February if Erie remains open. It isn't usually ice covered in December, so these kinds of events can happen if the pattern is right. But if the lake starts staying open through February, you're going to have a lot more higher end events then in BUF than they used to.

Tossed. We chucked that LSR before I had a chance to nix it. I could've believed a 70 mph, 90+ is just a bridge too far.

Shoals 84 mph and MHT 72 mph really stand out. We had quite a bit in that 65 mph range. Not sure I’m buying our LSRs of 93 at Echo Lake RWIS and the PWS on the Seacoast of 82 mph in the morning.

More or less turning into Horizontal convective rolls allowing them to remain stationary like a LES streamer.

Ram Island?

BOX just had a bunch of sites hit 50 kt again with the top of the hour METARs.